Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature

Review article: How does glacier discharge affect marine biogeochemistry and primary production in the Arctic?

Freshwater discharge from glaciers is increasing across the Arctic in response to anthropogenic climate change, which raises questions about the potential downstream effects in the marine environment. Whilst a combination of long-term monitoring programmes and intensive Arctic field campaigns have improved our knowledge of glacier-ocean interactions in recent years, especially with respect to fjord/ocean circulation, there are extensive knowledge gaps concerning how glaciers affect marine biogeochemistry and productivity. Following two cross-cutting disciplinary International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) workshops addressing the importance of glaciers for the marine ecosystem, here we review the state of the art concerning how freshwater discharge affects the marine environment with a specific focus on marine biogeochemistry and biological productivity. Using a series of Arctic case studies (Nuup Kangerlua/Godthäbsfjord, Kongsfjorden, Kangerluarsuup Sermia/Bowdoin Fjord, Young Sound and Sermilik Fjord), the interconnected effects of freshwater discharge on fjord-shelf exchange, nutrient availability, the carbonate system, the carbon cycle and the microbial food web are investigated. Key findings are that whether the effect of glacier discharge on marine primary production is positive or negative is highly dependent on a combination of factors. These include glacier type (marine- or land-terminating), fjord-glacier geometry and the limiting resource(s) for phytoplankton growth in a specific spatio-temporal region (light, macronutrients or micronutrients). Arctic glacier fjords therefore often exhibit distinct discharge-productivity relationships, and multiple case-studies must be considered in order to understand the net effects of glacier discharge on Arctic marine ecosystems

Review Article: How does glacier discharge affect marine biogeochemistry and primary production in the Arctic?

Freshwater discharge from glaciers is increasing across the Arctic in response to anthropogenic climate change, which raises questions about the potential downstream effects in the marine environment. Whilst a combination of long-term monitoring programmes and intensive Arctic field campaigns have improved our knowledge of glacier–ocean interactions in recent years, especially with respect to fjord/ocean circulation, there are extensive knowledge gaps concerning how glaciers affect marine biogeochemistry and productivity. Following two cross-cutting disciplinary International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) workshops addressing the importance of glaciers for the marine ecosystem, here we review the state of the art concerning how freshwater discharge affects the marine environment with a specific focus on marine biogeochemistry and biological productivity. Using a series of Arctic case studies (Nuup Kangerlua/Godthåbsfjord, Kongsfjorden, Kangerluarsuup Sermia/Bowdoin Fjord, Young Sound and Sermilik Fjord), the interconnected effects of freshwater discharge on fjord–shelf exchange, nutrient availability, the carbonate system, the carbon cycle and the microbial food web are investigated. Key findings are that whether the effect of glacier discharge on marine primary production is positive or negative is highly dependent on a combination of factors. These include glacier type (marine- or land-terminating), fjord–glacier geometry and the limiting resource(s) for phytoplankton growth in a specific spatio-temporal region (light, macronutrients or micronutrients). Arctic glacier fjords therefore often exhibit distinct discharge–productivity relationships, and multiple case-studies must be considered in order to understand the net effects of glacier discharge on Arctic marine ecosystems

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Mary O'Connor et al.© 2014 The Authors. Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature.We acknowledge financial support from the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) to A.J.R. and E.S.P.Peer Reviewe

Demystifying Models: Answers to Ten Common Questions That Ecologists Have About Earth System Models

Every 2 years the University of Hawaii hosts the Ecological Dissertations in the Aquatic Sciences (EcoDAS) symposium, an ASLO and NSF-funded workshop designed to foster interdisciplinary collaborations among early career aquatic ecologists. During the EcoDAS symposium in 2014, many of the discussions revolved around a growing interest in using global climate models for making projections about how ecosystems and organisms will respond to future changes. However, many EcoDAS participants did not feel they had the required knowledge to employ climate models or participate in a climate modeling study.Peer Reviewe

Autochthonous and allochthonous contributions of organic carbon to microbial food webs in Svalbard fjords

Rising temperatures in the Arctic Ocean are causing sea ice and glaciers to melt at record breaking rates, which has consequences for carbon cycling in the Arctic Ocean that are yet to be fully understood. Microbial carbon cycling is driven by internal processing of in situ produced organic carbon (OC), however recent research suggests that melt water from sea ice and glaciers could introduce an allochthonous source of OC to the microbial food web with ramifications for the metabolic balance of plankton communities. In this study, we characterized autochthonous and allochthonous sources of OC to the Western Svalbard fjord system using stable isotopes of carbon. We quantified δC of eukaryotic and prokaryotic planktonic groups using polar lipid-derived fatty acids as biomarkers in addition to measuring δC of marine particulate OC and dissolved OC from glacial runoff. δC of bacteria (−22.5‰) was higher than that of glacial runoff OC (−28.5‰) and other phytoplankton groups (−24.7 to −29.1‰), which suggests that marine bacteria preferentially use a third source of OC. We present a Bayesian three-source δC mixing model whereby ∼ 60% of bacteria carbon is derived from OC in sea ice, and the remaining carbon is derived from autochthonous production and glacial-derived OC. These results suggest that subsidies of OC from melting glaciers will not likely influence microbial carbon cycling in Svalbard fjords in the future and that further research is needed to determine the effects of melting sea ice on microbial carbon cycling in fjord systems and elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean

Temperature dependence of CO2-enhanced primary production in the European Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean is warming at two to three times the global rate and is perceived to be a bellwether for ocean acidification. Increased CO2 concentrations are expected to have a fertilization effect on marine autotrophs, and higher temperatures should lead to increased rates of planktonic primary production. Yet, simultaneous assessment of warming and increased CO2 on primary production in the Arctic has not been conducted. Here we test the expectation that CO2-enhanced gross primary production (GPP) may be temperature dependent, using data from several oceanographic cruises and experiments from both spring and summer in the European sector of the Arctic Ocean. Results confirm that CO2 enhances GPP (by a factor of up to ten) over a range of 145-2,099 µatm; however, the greatest effects are observed only at lower temperatures and are constrained by nutrient and light availability to the spring period. The temperature dependence of CO2-enhanced primary production has significant implications for metabolic balance in a warmer, CO2-enriched Arctic Ocean in the future. In particular, it indicates that a twofold increase in primary production during the spring is likely in the Arctic

Airborne Prokaryote and Virus Abundance Over the Red Sea

Aeolian dust exerts a considerable influence on atmospheric and oceanic conditions negatively impacting human health, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions like Saudi Arabia. Aeolian dust is often characterized by its mineral and chemical composition; however, there is a microbiological component of natural aerosols that has received comparatively little attention. Moreover, the amount of materials suspended in the atmosphere is highly variable from day to day. Thus, understanding the variability of atmospheric dust loads and suspended microbes throughout the year is essential to clarify the possible effects of dust on the Red Sea ecosystem. Here, we present the first estimates of dust and microbial loads at a coastal site on the Red Sea over a 2-year period, supplemented with measurements from dust samples collected along the Red Sea basin in offshore waters. Weekly average dust loads from a coastal site on the Red Sea ranged from 4.6 to 646.11 μg m−3, while the abundance of airborne prokaryotic cells and viral-like particles (VLPs) ranged from 77,967 to 1,203,792 cells m−3 and from 69,615 to 3,104,758 particles m−3, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first estimates of airborne microbial abundance in this region. The elevated concentrations of resuspended dust particles and suspended microbes found in the air indicate that airborne microbes may potentially have a large impact on human health and on the Red Sea ecosystem

The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts