The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true parameter value in some known proportion of repeated samples, on average. The width of confidence intervals is thought to index the precision of an estimate; CIs are thought to be a guide to which parameter values are plausible or reasonable; and the confidence coefficient of the interval (e.g., 95 %) is thought to index the plausibility that the true parameter is included in the interval. We show in a number of examples that CIs do not necessarily have any of these properties, and can lead to unjustified or arbitrary inferences. For this reason, we caution against relying upon confidence interval theory to justify interval estimates, and suggest that other theories of interval estimation should be used instead

Cluster Lenses

Clusters of galaxies are the most recently assembled, massive, bound structures in the Universe. As predicted by General Relativity, given their masses, clusters strongly deform space-time in their vicinity. Clusters act as some of the most powerful gravitational lenses in the Universe. Light rays traversing through clusters from distant sources are hence deflected, and the resulting images of these distant objects therefore appear distorted and magnified. Lensing by clusters occurs in two regimes, each with unique observational signatures. The strong lensing regime is characterized by effects readily seen by eye, namely, the production of giant arcs, multiple-images, and arclets. The weak lensing regime is characterized by small deformations in the shapes of background galaxies only detectable statistically. Cluster lenses have been exploited successfully to address several important current questions in cosmology: (i) the study of the lens(es) - understanding cluster mass distributions and issues pertaining to cluster formation and evolution, as well as constraining the nature of dark matter; (ii) the study of the lensed objects - probing the properties of the background lensed galaxy population - which is statistically at higher redshifts and of lower intrinsic luminosity thus enabling the probing of galaxy formation at the earliest times right up to the Dark Ages; and (iii) the study of the geometry of the Universe - as the strength of lensing depends on the ratios of angular diameter distances between the lens, source and observer, lens deflections are sensitive to the value of cosmological parameters and offer a powerful geometric tool to probe Dark Energy. In this review, we present the basics of cluster lensing and provide a current status report of the field.Comment: About 120 pages - Published in Open Access at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/j183018170485723/ . arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:astro-ph/0504478 and arXiv:1003.3674 by other author

Birth weight in a large series of triplets

Background: Triplets are often born premature and with a low birth weight. Because the incidence of triplet births is rare, there are relatively few studies describing triplet birth weight characteristics. Earlier studies are often characterized by small sample sizes and lack information on important background variables such as zygosity. The objective of this study is to examine factors associated with birth weight in a large, population-based sample of triplets registered with the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR).Methods: In a sample of 1230 triplets from 410 families, the effects of assisted reproductive techniques, zygosity, birth order, gestational age, sex, maternal smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy on birth weight were assessed. The resemblance among triplets for birth weight was estimated as a function of zygosity. Birth weight discordance within families was studied by the pair-wise difference between triplets, expressed as a percentage of the birth weight of the heaviest child. We compare data from triplets registered with the NTR with data from population records, which include live births, stillbirths and children that have deceased within days after birth.Results: There was no effect of assisted reproductive techniques on triplet birth weight. At gestational age 24 to 40 weeks triplets gained on average 130 grams per week; boys weighed 110 grams more than girls and triplets of smoking mothers weighted 104 grams less than children of non-smoking mothers. Monozygotic triplets had lower birth weights than di- and trizygotic triplets and birth weight discordance was smaller in monozygotic triplets than in di- and trizygotic triplets. The correlation in birth weight among monozygotic and dizygotic triplets was 0.42 and 0.32, respectively. In nearly two-thirds of the families, the heaviest and the lightest triplet had a birth weight discordance over 15%. The NTR sample is representative for the Dutch triplet population that is still alive 28 days after birth.Conclusion: Birth weight is an important determinant of childhood development. Triplet status, gestational age, sex, zygosity and maternal smoking affect birth weight. The combined effects amount to a difference of 364 grams between monozygotic girl triplets of smoking mothers compared to dizygotic boy triplets of non-smoking mothers of the same gestational age. Birth weight in triplets is also influenced by genetic factors, as indicated by a larger correlation in monozygotic than in di- and trizygotic triplets

Assessment of splenic function

Hyposplenic patients are at risk of overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI), which carries mortality of up to 70%. Therefore, preventive measures are warranted. However, patients with diminished splenic function are difficult to identify. In this review we discuss immunological, haematological and scintigraphic parameters that can be used to measure splenic function. IgM memory B cells are a potential parameter for assessing splenic function; however, more studies are necessary for its validation. Detection of Howell–Jolly bodies does not reflect splenic function accurately, whereas determining the percentage of pitted erythrocytes is a well-evaluated method and seems a good first-line investigation for assessing splenic function. When assessing spleen function, 99mTc-labelled, heat-altered, autologous erythrocyte scintigraphy with multimodality single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)-CT technology is the best approach, as all facets of splenic function are evaluated. In conclusion, although scintigraphic methods are most reliable, they are not suitable for screening large populations. We therefore recommend using the percentage of pitted erythrocytes, albeit suboptimal, as a first-line investigation and subsequently confirming abnormal readings by means of scintigraphy. More studies evaluating the value of potentially new markers are needed

FDG PET and PET/CT: EANM procedure guidelines for tumour PET imaging: version 1.0

The aim of this guideline is to provide a minimum standard for the acquisition and interpretation of PET and PET/CT scans with [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG). This guideline will therefore address general information about [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) and is provided to help the physician and physicist to assist to carrying out, interpret, and document quantitative FDG PET/CT examinations, but will concentrate on the optimisation of diagnostic quality and quantitative information

Adventures in the Enormous: A 1.8 Million Clone BAC Library for the 21.7 Gb Genome of Loblolly Pine

Loblolly pine (LP; Pinus taeda L.) is the most economically important tree in the U.S. and a cornerstone species in southeastern forests. However, genomics research on LP and other conifers has lagged behind studies on flowering plants due, in part, to the large size of conifer genomes. As a means to accelerate conifer genome research, we constructed a BAC library for the LP genotype 7-56. The LP BAC library consists of 1,824,768 individually-archived clones making it the largest single BAC library constructed to date, has a mean insert size of 96 kb, and affords 7.6X coverage of the 21.7 Gb LP genome. To demonstrate the efficacy of the library in gene isolation, we screened macroarrays with overgos designed from a pine EST anchored on LP chromosome 10. A positive BAC was sequenced and found to contain the expected full-length target gene, several gene-like regions, and both known and novel repeats. Macroarray analysis using the retrotransposon IFG-7 (the most abundant repeat in the sequenced BAC) as a probe indicates that IFG-7 is found in roughly 210,557 copies and constitutes about 5.8% or 1.26 Gb of LP nuclear DNA; this DNA quantity is eight times the Arabidopsis genome. In addition to its use in genome characterization and gene isolation as demonstrated herein, the BAC library should hasten whole genome sequencing of LP via next-generation sequencing strategies/technologies and facilitate improvement of trees through molecular breeding and genetic engineering. The library and associated products are distributed by the Clemson University Genomics Institute (www.genome.clemson.edu)

Evolutionary factors affecting Lactate dehydrogenase A and B variation in the Daphnia pulex species complex

Background: Evidence for historical, demographic and selective factors affecting enzyme evolution can be obtained by examining nucleotide sequence variation in candidate genes such as Lactate dehydrogenase (Ldh). Two closely related Daphnia species can be distinguished by their electrophoretic Ldh genotype and habitat. Daphnia pulex populations are fixed for the S allele and inhabit temporary ponds, while D. pulicaria populations are fixed for the F allele and inhabit large stratified lakes. One locus is detected in most allozyme surveys, but genome sequencing has revealed two genes, LdhA and LdhB. Results: We sequenced both Ldh genes from 70 isolates of these two species from North America to determine if the association between Ldh genotype and habitat shows evidence for selection, and to elucidate the evolutionary history of the two genes. We found that alleles in the pond-dwelling D. pulex and in the lake-dwelling D. pulicaria form distinct groups at both loci, and the substitution of Glutamine (S) for Glutamic acid (F) at amino acid 229 likely causes the electrophoretic mobility shift in the LDHA protein. Nucleotide diversity in both Ldh genes is much lower in D. pulicaria than in D. pulex. Moreover, the lack of spatial structuring of the variation in both genes over a wide geographic area is consistent with a recent demographic expansion of lake populations. Neutrality tests indicate that both genes are under purifying selection, but the intensity is much stronger on LdhA. Conclusions: Although lake-dwelling D. pulicaria hybridizes with the other lineages in the pulex species complex, it remains distinct ecologically and genetically. This ecological divergence, coupled with the intensity of purifying selection on LdhA and the strong association between its genotype and habitat, suggests that experimental studies would be useful to determine if variation in molecular function provides evidence that LDHA variants are adaptive