Bankruptcy prediction: A comparison of data mining models on unbalanced data and effects of sampling

With the very unbalanced data found in financial risk prediction, this study hopes to aid in anticipating the financial risk that corporations may encounter. We can improve performance by employing oversampling and under-sampling algorithms. We were able to better understand how the performance of each classifier changed in each dataset by using a variety of classifiers across three distinctively sampled datasets. In addition, we analyzed our dataset using three different evaluation metrics: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, rather than being limited to just one. The results indicate that the accuracy on three separate datasets with various sampling methods differs greatly. The sensitivity and specificity of the under-sampled dataset differ from those of the original dataset and the oversampled dataset, which are fairly comparable to one another. It was discovered that gradient boosting trees produce better outcomes than other algorithms. When using oversampled data and measuring accuracy, logistic regression was found to be the most effective. However, when using under-sampled data, LightGBM Classifier had the best performance. Additionally, when considering sensitivity and specificity, CatBoost Classifier was the best choice. Keywords: Bankruptcy, unbalanced data, classificatio

Structure and Productivity of \u3ci\u3eHaloxylon ammodendron\u3c/i\u3e Communities in the Mongolian Gobi

Communities of Haloxylon ammodendron are widespread in the Mongolian Gobi where they play a significant role in biodiversity preservation. They occupy several main types of habitats, showing differences in density, projective cover, and productivity. Haloxylon ammodendron plays a similar, if not even more important role in the arid zone of Mongolia as the principal forest-making trees in the Northern part of the country. The complex set of quantitative parameters of Haloxylon ammodendron stands studied here in respect to temporal dynamics can serve as an indicator of both the vitality of desert ecosystems, and of environmental change

Structure and Productivity of \u3ci\u3eHaloxylon ammodendron\u3c/i\u3e Communities in the Mongolian Gobi

Communities of Haloxylon ammodendron are widespread in the Mongolian Gobi where they play a significant role in biodiversity preservation. They occupy several main types of habitats, showing differences in density, projective cover, and productivity. Haloxylon ammodendron plays a similar, if not even more important role in the arid zone of Mongolia as the principal forest-making trees in the Northern part of the country. The complex set of quantitative parameters of Haloxylon ammodendron stands studied here in respect to temporal dynamics can serve as an indicator of both the vitality of desert ecosystems, and of environmental change

Revitalização do sistema de cooperação do consumidor na Rússia; desenvolvimento sustentável do território e crescimento da qualidade de vida

The system of consumer cooperation has a certain potential in solving national problems related to the provision of employment and the quality of life of the population, as well as to the social reorganization of the village. The study shows that the cooperative system is characterized by the complementarity of traits (social and economic), the dialectical interaction of which serves as the basis for the formation of civil society (self-organization and voluntary cooperation of shareholders in the process of production and economic activity) and a peculiar locomotive of the evolution of society towards building socially-oriented market economy (non-commercial nature of activities and humanistic values). However, the emerging trend of losing the competitive positions of the consumer cooperative system in the regional consumer markets in Russia leads to an awareness of the need for institutional changes that would make it possible to fully utilize the economic and social potential of the development of consumer cooperation in the context of the structural transformation of Russian society. The authors offer practical recommendations on the design and formation of effective forms of management of economic entities in the cooperative sector. Complex nature of the economic resource requires its inclusion in the correlation algorithm of proactive management. Simulation of sustainable innovation development of the regional system of consumer cooperation is possible only using optimization-qualimetric modeling on the platform of the software product. Computer technologies create objective opportunities for creating the required model. The integrated computer space is able to rework the network of mathematical matrices, building a complete life cycle of an economic resource, consisting not only of collecting and analyzing information, but also the possibility of making operational management decisions.El sistema de cooperación del consumidor tiene cierto potencial para resolver los problemas nacionales relacionados con la provisión de empleo y la calidad de vida de la población, así como con la reorganización social de la aldea. El estudio muestra que el sistema cooperativo se caracteriza por la complementariedad de rasgos (sociales y económicos), cuya interacción dialéctica sirve de base para la formación de la sociedad civil (autoorganización y cooperación voluntaria de los accionistas en el proceso de producción económica) y una locomotora peculiar de la evolución de la sociedad hacia la construcción de una economía de mercado orientada socialmente (naturaleza no comercial de las actividades y valores humanísticos). Sin embargo, la tendencia emergente de perder las posiciones competitivas del sistema de cooperativas de consumo en los mercados de consumo regionales en Rusia lleva a una conciencia de la necesidad de cambios institucionales que permitan aprovechar plenamente el potencial económico y social del desarrollo del consumidor. Los autores ofrecen recomendaciones prácticas sobre el diseño y la formación de formas efectivas de gestión de entidades económicas en el sector cooperativo.  La naturaleza compleja del recurso económico requiere su inclusión en el algoritmo de correlación de la gestión proactiva. La simulación del desarrollo de innovación sostenible del sistema regional de cooperación del consumidor solo es posible mediante el uso del modelado optimizado y cualimétrico en la plataforma del producto de software. Las tecnologías informáticas crean oportunidades objetivas para crear el modelo requerido. El espacio informático integrado es capaz de volver a trabajar la red de matrices matemáticas, creando un ciclo de vida completo de un recurso económico, que consiste no solo en recopilar y analizar información, sino también en la posibilidad de tomar decisiones de gestión operativa.O sistema de cooperação do consumidor tem algum potencial para resolver problemas nacionais relacionados com a oferta de emprego e a qualidade de vida da população, bem como a reorganização social da aldeia. O estudo mostra que o sistema cooperativo é caracterizado pela complementaridade de características (sociais e econômicas), cuja interação dialética serve de base para a formação da sociedade civil (auto-organização e cooperação voluntária dos acionistas no processo de produção econômica) e uma locomotiva peculiar à evolução da sociedade para a construção de uma economia de mercado socialmente orientada (natureza não comercial de atividades e valores humanísticos). No entanto, a tendência emergente de perder as posições competitivas do sistema cooperativo de consumo nos mercados consumidores regionais da Rússia leva à conscientização da necessidade de mudanças institucionais que permitam a plena exploração do potencial econômico e social do desenvolvimento do consumidor. Os autores oferecem recomendações práticas sobre a concepção e formação de formas eficazes de gestão de entidades econômicas no setor cooperativo. A natureza complexa do recurso econômico requer sua inclusão no algoritmo de correlação do gerenciamento proativo. A simulação do desenvolvimento da inovação sustentável do sistema regional de cooperação do consumidor só é possível através do uso de modelagem otimizada e qualitativa na plataforma de produtos de software. As tecnologias computacionais criam oportunidades objetivas para criar o modelo necessário. O espaço computacional integrado é capaz de retrabalhar a rede de matrizes matemáticas, criando um ciclo de vida completo de um recurso econômico, que consiste não apenas em coletar e analisar informações, mas também na possibilidade de tomar decisões de gerenciamento operacional

ОЦЕНКА ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЯ ГАЗО-ГИДРОТЕРМАЛЬНОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ БАЙКАЛЬСКОГО РИФТА НА АКВАТОРИЮ ОЗЕРА ПО РЕЗУЛЬТАТАМ ЧИСЛЕННОГО ЭКСПЕРИМЕНТА

The Baikal rift is characterized by high heat flow, seismic activity and large thickness of sediments through which gas and hydrothermal water are intensely released into the lake water. In the area of the southern Baikal at the beginning of the 20th century, 'water pillars' were observed to reach almost a dozen metres height when earthquakes took place. This suggests potential uplift of significant amounts of gas from the lake's bottom into the atmosphere and confirms a relationship between seismicity and methane emissions. Moreover, strong emissions of gas take place in many regions of Lake Baikal, and when the lake is covered by ice, such phenomena can cause the occurrence of spots with melted ice wherein an effect of water 'boiling' is observed. In recent international space studies of the surface of ice covering Lake Baikal in spring periods, mysterious rings of 5 to 7 km in diameter were discovered. Causes and mechanisms of their occurrence have not been studied in detail yet. It is established that a ring-shaped structure results from an uplift of deep water which causes clock-wise vortex flows. Uplifting of deep water can accompany emissions of significant amounts of methane from sediments, activation of thermal vents or gas-water-mud volcanoes at the bottom of Lake Baikal. In order to reveal causes and conditions of the above-described phenomena, the author designed a 3D model of heat-and-mass transfer in viscous medium and used it for numerical simulations. Based on the obtained results, it is established that a ring-shaped structure is formed on ice of the lake by a toroid-shaped ascending convective flow that occurs due to horizontal and vertical gradients of density, and the central part of such a flow rotates in the counter-clockwise direction (i.e. cyclonic vortex), while its periphery parts rotate in the clockwise direction (i.e. anticyclonic vortex).  Both hydrothermal vents and gas emissions can produce such ascending flows. Spots with melted ice can be formed when the temperature of hydrothermal vents amounts to 30–50 °С; such a melted-ice spot can stay open as long as the hydrothermal vent is active. With an assumption of 100 % concentration of gas in the source, the numerical simulation shows that during gas release into the atmosphere, a gas pillar can reach a height of 15 metres if the source of gas is active for a period no shorter than the time required for the gas flow to ascend through the water layer and to release into the air above the water surface. An area, wherein gas is released in bubbles, can be formed in case of lasting activity of a gas source wherein the volume of gas varies from 1 % to 20 % (i.e. gas-water mix). Байкальский рифт характеризуется повышенным тепловым потоком, сейсмической активностью и мощной толщей осадочных пород, через которые в водную толщу озера идет интенсивная разгрузка газов и гидротерм. Известно, что при землетрясениях в начале XX в. на Южном Байкале наблюдались «водяные столбы» высотой в несколько метров. Это говорит о возможном подъеме со дна озера и выбросе в атмосферу значительных объемов газа и подтверждает связь между сейсмичностью и выбросами метана. Кроме того, во многих районах озера Байкал наблюдались достаточно сильные газовыделения, с которыми связывают пропарины, формирующие участки воды с кипящей поверхностью. В последние годы при изучении поверхности Земли из космоса на весеннем льду Байкала космонавтами международной научной станции были обнаружены таинственные кольца диаметром 5–7 км. Причины и механизм их образования пока детально не изучены. Было установлено, что кольцевая структура образуется при подъеме в ее центре глубинных вод, которые формируют вихревые течения, направленные по часовой стрелке. Подъем глубинных вод может быть связан с выбросами больших объемов природного горючего газа (метана) из осадочной толщи, активизацией термальных источников или деятельностью газоводогрязевых вулканов дна Байкала.Для определения причины и условия этих явлений проведен численный эксперимент с помощью трехмерной модели тепломассопереноса в вязких средах, разработанной автором. Анализ результатов показал, что кольцевые структуры на льду озера формируются за счет восходящего конвективного потока (струи) торообразного вида, образованного горизонтальным и вертикальным градиентом плотности, центральная часть которого вращается против часовой стрелки (циклонический вихрь), а периферийная – по часовой стрелке (антициклонический вихрь). Источником восходящих струй могут быть как гидротермы, так и газовые выбросы. При температуре гидротерм в источнике 30–50 °С во льду может образоваться пропарина, действующая в течение всего времени работы источника. Для выброса газа в атмосферу до 15 м высотой время работы источника должно быть не менее времени подъема (добегания) струи газа до раздела вода – воздух при 100%-ной концентрации газа в источнике. Формирование области с выделением газа в виде пузырьков (грифон) может произойти при концентрациях газа в источнике 1–20 % от объема (газоводяная смесь) и длительной его работе. 

НОВАЯ ИНФОРМАЦИОННАЯ ТЕХНОЛОГИЯ И ЕЕ ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ПРИ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИИ ГЕОСИСТЕМ

Numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for free and forced convection in solid and porous media is challenging as an evolution equation for pressure is lacking. An information technology is proposed on the basis of a new system of hydrodynamic equations. It provides for distinguishing between free and forced convection components and allows estimation of parameters of the cumulative convective flow by calculating values of its two components. A classical system of equations of the ellipticparabolic type is developed for solving the problems of heat and mass transfer. The system describes vortex structures which occur in the gravitational field in all media in case of density stratification. A majority of the available computation methods and schemes can be applied for numerical solutions of the proposed system; therefore modeling can be simplified, while the scope of the system’s application can be expanded. Possible applications of the proposed information technology are demonstrated by examples showing how problems of low-mantle plume and diapir formation and rifting in the lithosphere-crust system can be solved.При численном решении системы уравнений Навье-Стокса в задачах со свободной и вынужденной конвекцией в сплошных и пористых средах возникают сложности по причине отсутствия эволюционного уравнения для давления и из-за ряда других особенностей. Предложена информационная технология, основанная на новой системе уравнений гидродинамики, позволяющая разделить конвекцию на две составляющие – свободную и вынужденную, и, вычислив их значения, получить параметры суммарного конвективного потока. Для решения задач тепломассопереноса получена классическая система уравнений эллиптическо-параболического типа, описывающая вихревые структуры, которые формируются в гравитационном поле во всех средах при возникновении плотностной стратификации. При численном решении этой системы можно использовать большинство разработанных расчетных методов и схем, что упрощает моделирование и расширяет область ее применения. На примерах решения задач формирования нижнемантийного плюма, диапира и рифта в системе литосфера–кора показаны возможности этой информационной технологии

Restoration of the Soil and Vegetation in Sandy Land with Different Stages of Deflation

The aim of this work is to reveal the features of fallow sandy lands with different stages of deflation. The virgin soil-vegetation cover was the reference point: plots with light and strong deflation were compared with it. The soil deflation stages were determined by the presence or absence of layers characteristic of the backgroundsoils of the territory. The restoration of vegetation depends on the activity of wind erosion, the properties of the soils and substrata emerging on the soil surface. Studies have shown that the soil properties of deflated plots contradict the background and classical schemes of fallow land recovery. Keywords: Trasbaikalia, Barguzin Depression, sandy lands, plant-soil cover, soil deflation, vegetation restoratio

GENDER FEATURES OF LAMINA CONTENT IN HUMAN SKIN FIBROBLASTS IN A PROCESS OF CHRONOLOGICAL AGING

The purpose of the study was to investigate gender peculiarities of the content of fibroblasts immunopositive to lamins A, B1 and B2 in skin samples in a process of chronological aging. Material and methods. 331 skin samples at the period from 20 to 40 weeks of gestation and people from birth to 85 years were examined. The content of positively stained dermal fibroblasts and the expression level of lamins A, B1 and B2 in their nucleus was explored by immunohistochemistry. Results and discussion. The gradual decrease of fibroblasts with positive staining for lamin A and the expression level of lamin A after antenatal period and up to old age depends on the age, but does not have differences, which are related to gender. The lamin B1 positively fibroblasts content is declining reliably from birth to 40 years and then it is increasing as well as the expression level of lamina B1. The indicated changes don’t have reliable variances in gender. The change in the number of lamina B2-positively colored fibroblasts and the expression level of lamina B2 has no statistically valid correlation with gender and age. Thus, there are no gender differences in dynamical age related changes of the content and the expression level of protein-lamina in skin fibroblasts in a process of chronological aging

Climate and Grazing Effects on the Biomass and Photosynthetic Capacity of Dominant Species in Mongolia Steppe Communities

Global climate change and grazing are the key factors affecting plant productivity in steppe regions of Mongolia. It is important to separate the impacts of these factors and to assess the contribution of each factor to the biomass of pastoral plants. Here, we studied the grazing and climate impact on biomass and functional traits in three dominant species of Mongolian steppe plant communities: Artemisia frigida Willd., Stipa krylovii Roshev., and Kochia prostrata (L.) Schrad. Both aridity and grazing significantly influenced the biomass of the studied species but the direction and scope of the changes were species-specific. Grazing had no effect on leaf mass per area (LMA), photosynthesis (