Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserv

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types

Definition of a temporal distribution index for high temporal resolution precipitation data over Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands: the fractal dimension; and its synoptic implications

Precipitation on the Spanish mainland and in the Balearic archipelago exhibits a high degree of spatial and temporal variability, regardless of the temporal resolution of the data considered. The fractal dimension indicates the property of self-similarity, and in the case of this study, wherein it is applied to the temporal behaviour of rainfall at a fine (10-min) resolution from a total of 48 observatories, it provides insights into its more or less convective nature. The methodology of Jenkinson & Collison which automatically classifies synoptic situations at the surface, as well as an adaptation of this methodology at 500 hPa, was applied in order to gain insights into the synoptic implications of extreme values of the fractal dimension. The highest fractal dimension values in the study area were observed in places with precipitation that has a more random behaviour over time with generally high totals. Four different regions in which the atmospheric mechanisms giving rise to precipitation at the surface differ from the corresponding above-ground mechanisms have been identified in the study area based on the fractal dimension. In the north of the Iberian Peninsula, high fractal dimension values are linked to a lower frequency of anticyclonic situations, whereas the opposite occurs in the central region. In the Mediterranean, higher fractal dimension values are associated with a higher frequency of the anticyclonic type and a lower frequency of the advective type from the east. In the south, lower fractal dimension values indicate higher frequency with respect to the anticyclonic type from the east and lower frequency with respect to the cyclonic type

Climatic and geologic controls on the piezometry of the Querença-Silves karst aquifer, Algarve (Portugal)

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions, like Queren double dagger a-Silves (Portugal), are particularly vulnerable to climate variability. For the first time in this region, the temporal structure of a groundwater-level time series (1985-2010) was explored using the continuous wavelet transform. The investigation focused on a set of four piezometers, two at each side of the S. Marcos-Quarteira fault, to demonstrate how each of the two sectors of the aquifer respond to climate-induced patterns. Singular spectral analysis applied to an extended set of piezometers enabled identification of several quasi-periodic modes of variability, with periods of 6.5, 4.3, 3.2 and 2.6 years, which can be explained by low-frequency climate patterns. The geologic forcing accounts for similar to 15 % of the differential variability between the eastern and western sectors of the aquifer. The western sector displays spatially homogenous piezometric variations, large memory effects and low-pass filtering characteristics, which are consistent with relatively large and uniform values of water storage capacity and transmissivity properties. In this sector, the 6.5-year mode of variability accounts for similar to 70 % of the total variance of the groundwater levels. The eastern sector shows larger spatial and temporal heterogeneity, is more reactive to short-term variations, and is less influenced by the low-frequency components related to climate patterns

Interannual variability of European extreme winter rainfall and links with mean large-scale circulation

December–February (DJF) extreme rainfall was analysed at 347 European stations for the period 1958–2000. Two indices of extreme rainfall were examined: the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD); and the number of days above the 1961–90 90th percentile of wet-day amounts (R90N). A principal component analysis of CDD found six components that accounted for 52.4% of the total variance. Six components of DJF R90N were also retained that accounted for 39.1% of the total variance. The second component of R90N has a very significant trend and the factor loadings closely resemble the observed linear trend in this index, suggesting that the analysis has isolated the mode of variability causing the trend as a separate component. The principal components of the indices were correlated with surface and upper-air observations over the North Atlantic. The best correlations were generally found to be with sea-level pressure (SLP) observations. A separate canonical correlation analysis of each of the two indices with SLP revealed several coupled modes of variability. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) was isolated as the first canonical pattern for R90N. For CDD the first two canonical coefficients of CDD were significantly correlated with the NAO index. Generally, the canonical coefficients with the highest correlations with the NAO had the most significant trends, suggesting that the observed trend in the NAO has strongly contributed to the observed trends in the indices. Two other important canonical patterns were isolated: a pattern of anomalous mean SLP (MSLP) centred over the North Sea, which seems to be related to local sea-surface temperature over this region; and a dipole-like pattern of MSLP with poles over the eastern Mediterranean and the central North Atlantic. Repeating the canonical correlation analysis with two other indices of extreme rainfall, the 90th percentile of wet day amounts and the maximum 10 day rainfall total, gives very similar coupled patterns