[Mortality rate of HIV-infected adults on long term combination antiretroviral therapy.]

International audienc

Optimal Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Allocation Strategies for the Canadian Population

BACKGROUND: The world is currently confronting the first influenza pandemic of the 21(st) century. Influenza vaccination is an effective preventive measure, but the unique epidemiological features of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) introduce uncertainty as to the best strategy for prioritization of vaccine allocation. We sought to determine optimal prioritization of vaccine distribution among different age and risk groups within the Canadian population, to minimize influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a deterministic, age-structured compartmental model of influenza transmission, with key parameter values estimated from data collected during the initial phase of the epidemic in Ontario, Canada. We examined the effect of different vaccination strategies on attack rates, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and mortality. In all scenarios, prioritization of high-risk individuals (those with underlying chronic conditions and pregnant women), regardless of age, markedly decreased the frequency of severe outcomes. When individuals with underlying medical conditions were not prioritized and an age group-based approach was used, preferential vaccination of age groups at increased risk of severe outcomes following infection generally resulted in decreased mortality compared to targeting vaccine to age groups with higher transmission, at a cost of higher population-level attack rates. All simulations were sensitive to the timing of the epidemic peak in relation to vaccine availability, with vaccination having the greatest impact when it was implemented well in advance of the epidemic peak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our model simulations suggest that vaccine should be allocated to high-risk groups, regardless of age, followed by age groups at increased risk of severe outcomes. Vaccination may significantly reduce influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality, but the benefits are dependent on epidemic dynamics, time for program roll-out, and vaccine uptake

Immunological markers after long-term treatment interruption in chronically HIV-1 infected patients with CD4 cell count above 400 x 10(6) cells/l.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse immunological markers associated with CD4+ lymphocyte T-cell count (CD4+) evolution during 12-month follow-up after treatment discontinuation. METHOD: Prospective observational study of chronically HIV-1 infected patients with CD4+ above 400 x 10(6) cells/l. RESULTS: CD4+ changes took place in two phases: an initial rapid decrease in the first month (-142 x 10(6) cells/l on average), followed by a slow decline (-17 x 10(6) cells/l on average) The second slope of CD4+ decline was not correlated with the first and only baseline plasma HIV RNA was associated with it. The decline in CD4+ during the first month was steeper in patients with higher CD4+ and weaker plasma HIV RNA baseline levels. Moreover, the decline was less pronounced (P < 10(-4)) in patients with CD4+ nadir above 350 x 10(6) cells/l (-65 x 10(6) cells/l per month) in comparison with those below 350 x 10(6) cells/l (-200 x 10(6) cells/l per month). A high number of dendritic cells (DCs) whatever the type was associated with high CD4+ at the time of treatment interruption and its steeper decline over the first month. Moreover, the myeloid DC level was stable whereas the lymphoid DC count, which tended to decrease in association with decrease in CD4+, was negatively correlated with the HIV RNA load slope. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the use of the CD4+ nadir to predict the CD4+ dynamic after treatment interruption and consideration of the CD4+ count after 1-month of interruption merely reflects the 12-month level of CD4+. Although DCs seem to be associated with the CD4+ dynamic, the benefit of monitoring them has still to be defined

Estimation of the Prevalence of Undiagnosed and Diagnosed HIV in an Urban Emergency Department

To estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV, the prevalence of diagnosed HIV, and proportion of HIV that is undiagnosed in populations with similar demographics as the Universal Screening for HIV in the Emergency Room (USHER) Trial and the Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) Emergency Department (ED) in Boston, MA. We also sought to estimate these quantities within demographic and risk behavior subgroups.We used data from the USHER Trial, which was a randomized clinical trial of HIV screening conducted in the BWH ED. Since eligible participants were HIV-free at time of enrollment, we were able to calculate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV. We used data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MA/DPH) to estimate the prevalence of diagnosed HIV since the MA/DPH records the number of persons within MA who are HIV-positive. We calculated the proportion of HIV that is undiagnosed using these estimates of the prevalence of undiagnosed and diagnosed HIV. Estimates were stratified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, history of testing, and risk behaviors.The overall expected prevalence of diagnosed HIV in a population similar to those presenting to the BWH ED was 0.71% (95% CI: 0.63%, 0.78%). The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV was estimated at 0.22% (95% CI: 0.10%, 0.42%) and resultant overall prevalence was 0.93%. The proportion of HIV-infection that is undiagnosed in this ED-based setting was estimated to be 23.7% (95% CI: 11.6%, 34.9%) of total HIV-infections.Despite different methodology, our estimate of the proportion of HIV that is undiagnosed in an ED-setting was similar to previous estimates based on national surveillance data. Universal routine testing programs in EDs should use these data to help plan their yield of HIV detection

Ten-year incidence and risk factors of bone fractures in a cohort of treated HIV1-infected adults.: Bone fractures in HIV1 infected patients.

International audienceIn the ANRS CO8 APROCO-COPILOTE cohort of patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy since 1997-1999, the incidence density of bone fractures was 3.3 for 1000 patient-years [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.0-4.6]. The rate was 2.9-fold (95% CI = 1.3-6.5) higher among patients with excessive alcohol consumption and 3.6-fold (95% CI = 1.6-8.1) higher in those with hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection. Specific monitoring of HCV/HIV-coinfected patients and active promotion of alcohol cessation should be recommended for the prevention of bone fractures

Bacterial Pneumonia among HIV-Infected Patients: Decreased Risk After Tobacco Smoking Cessation. ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort, 2000–2007

BACKGROUND: Bacterial pneumonia is still a substantial cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients in the era of combination Antiretroviral Therapy. The benefit of tobacco withdrawal on the risk of bacterial pneumonia has not been quantified in such populations, exposed to other important risk factors such as HIV-related immunodeficiency. Our objective was to estimate the effect of tobacco smoking withdrawal on the risk of bacterial pneumonia among HIV-infected individuals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients of the ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort with >or= two visits during 2000-2007 and without bacterial pneumonia at the first visit were included. Former smokers were patients who stopped smoking since >or= one year. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted on CD4+ lymphocytes (CD4), gender, age, HIV transmission category, antiretroviral therapy, cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, statin treatment, viral load and previous AIDS diagnosis. 135 cases of bacterial pneumonia were reported in 3336 patients, yielding an incidence of 12 per thousand patient-years. The adjusted hazard of bacterial pneumonia was lower in former smokers (Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.48; P = 0.02) and never smokers (HR: 0.50; P = 0.01) compared to current smokers. It was higher in patients with <200 CD4 cells/microL and in those with 200 to 349 CD4 cells/microL (HR: 2.98 and 1.98, respectively; both P<0.01), but not in those with 350 to 499 CD4 cells/microL (HR: 0.93; P = 0.79), compared to those with >or=500 CD4 cells/microL. The interaction between CD4 cell count and tobacco smoking status was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Smoking cessation dramatically reduces the risk of bacterial pneumonia, whatever the level of immunodeficiency. Smoking cessation interventions should become a key element of the clinical management of HIV-infected individuals

Estimation of dynamical model parameters taking into account undetectable marker values

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are widely used for studying the dynamic of infectious agents such as hepatitis C virus (HCV). Most often, model parameters are estimated using standard least-square procedures for each individual. Hierarchical models have been proposed in such applications. However, another issue is the left-censoring (undetectable values) of plasma viral load due to the lack of sensitivity of assays used for quantification. A method is proposed to take into account left-censored values for estimating parameters of non linear mixed models and its impact is demonstrated through a simulation study and an actual clinical trial of anti-HCV drugs. METHODS: The method consists in a full likelihood approach distinguishing the contribution of observed and left-censored measurements assuming a lognormal distribution of the outcome. Parameters of analytical solution of system of differential equations taking into account left-censoring are estimated using standard software. RESULTS: A simulation study with only 14% of measurements being left-censored showed that model parameters were largely biased (from -55% to +133% according to the parameter) with the exception of the estimate of initial outcome value when left-censored viral load values are replaced by the value of the threshold. When left-censoring was taken into account, the relative bias on fixed effects was equal or less than 2%. Then, parameters were estimated using the 100 measurements of HCV RNA available (with 12% of left-censored values) during the first 4 weeks following treatment initiation in the 17 patients included in the trial. Differences between estimates according to the method used were clinically significant, particularly on the death rate of infected cells. With the crude approach the estimate was 0.13 day(-1 )(95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11; 0.17) compared to 0.19 day(-1 )(CI: 0.14; 0.26) when taking into account left-censoring. The relative differences between estimates of individual treatment efficacy according to the method used varied from 0.001% to 37%. CONCLUSION: We proposed a method that gives unbiased estimates if the assumed distribution is correct (e.g. lognormal) and that is easy to use with standard software

Impact of Previous Virological Treatment Failures and Adherence on the Outcome of Antiretroviral Therapy in 2007

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) has been very successful, especially among selected patients in clinical trials. The aim of this study was to describe outcomes of cART on the population level in a large national cohort. METHODS: Characteristics of participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on stable cART at two semiannual visits in 2007 were analyzed with respect to era of treatment initiation, number of previous virologically failed regimens and self reported adherence. Starting ART in the mono/dual era before HIV-1 RNA assays became available was counted as one failed regimen. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for virological failure between the two consecutive visits. RESULTS: Of 4541 patients 31.2% and 68.8% had initiated therapy in the mono/dual and cART era, respectively, and been on treatment for a median of 11.7 vs. 5.7 years. At visit 1 in 2007, the mean number of previous failed regimens was 3.2 vs. 0.5 and the viral load was undetectable (4 previous failures compared to 1 were 0.9 (95% CI 0.4-1.7), 0.8 (0.4-1.6), 1.6 (0.8-3.2), 3.3 (1.7-6.6) respectively, and 2.3 (1.1-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. From the cART era, odds ratios with a history of 1, 2 and >2 previous failures compared to none were 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), 2.8 (1.7-4.5) and 7.8 (4.5-13.5), respectively, and 2.8 (1.6-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. CONCLUSIONS: A higher number of previous virologically failed regimens, and imperfect adherence to therapy were independent predictors of imminent virological failure

Case Fatality Rates Based on Population Estimates of Influenza-Like Illness Due to Novel H1N1 Influenza: New York City, May–June 2009

BACKGROUND: The public health response to pandemic influenza is contingent on the pandemic strain's severity. In late April 2009, a potentially pandemic novel H1N1 influenza strain (nH1N1) was recognized. New York City (NYC) experienced an intensive initial outbreak that peaked in late May, providing the need and opportunity to rapidly quantify the severity of nH1N1. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Telephone surveys using rapid polling methods of approximately 1,000 households each were conducted May 20-27 and June 15-19, 2009. Respondents were asked about the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI, fever with either cough or sore throat) for each household member from May 1-27 (survey 1) or the preceding 30 days (survey 2). For the overlap period, prevalence data were combined by weighting the survey-specific contribution based on a Serfling model using data from the NYC syndromic surveillance system. Total and age-specific prevalence of ILI attributed to nH1N1 were estimated using two approaches to adjust for background ILI: discounting by ILI prevalence in less affected NYC boroughs and by ILI measured in syndromic surveillance data from 2004-2008. Deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions were determined from enhanced surveillance including nH1N1-specific testing. Combined ILI prevalence for the 50-day period was 15.8% (95% CI:13.2%-19.0%). The two methods of adjustment yielded point estimates of nH1N1-associated ILI of 7.8% and 12.2%. Overall case-fatality (CFR) estimates ranged from 0.054-0.086 per 1000 persons with nH1N1-associated ILI and were highest for persons>or=65 years (0.094-0.147 per 1000) and lowest for those 0-17 (0.008-0.012). Hospitalization rates ranged from 0.84-1.34 and ICU admission rates from 0.21-0.34 per 1000, with little variation in either by age-group. CONCLUSIONS: ILI prevalence can be quickly estimated using rapid telephone surveys, using syndromic surveillance data to determine expected "background" ILI proportion. Risk of severe illness due to nH1N1 was similar to seasonal influenza, enabling NYC to emphasize preventing severe morbidity rather than employing aggressive community mitigation measures