Spatial extreme model for rainfall depth: application to the estimation of IDF curves in the Basque country

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are commonly used in engineering practice for the hydraulic design of flood protection infrastructures and flood risk management. IDF curves are simple functions between the rainfall intensity, the timescale at which the rainfall process is studied, and the return period. This work proposes and tests a new methodological framework for the spatial analysis of extreme rainfall depth at different timescales, taking advantage of two different precipitation datasets: local observational and gridded products. On the one hand, the proposed method overcomes or reduces known issues related to observational datasets (missing data and short temporal coverage, outliers, systematic biases and inhomogeneities, etc.). On the other hand, it allows incorporating appropriately terrain dependencies on the spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation regime. Finally, it allows to estimate the IDF curves at regional level overcoming the deficiencies of the classical regional approaches commonly used in practice. The method has been tested to compute IDF curves all over the Basque Country, contrasting results with respect to local analyses. Results show the method robustness against outliers, missing data, systematic biases and short length time series. Moreover, since generalized extreme value (GEV)-parameters from daily gridded dataset are used as covariates, the proposed approach allows coherent spatial interpolation/extrapolation of IDF curves properly accounting for the influence of orographic factors. In addition, due to the current coexistence of local observations and gridded datasets at regional (e.g. The Alps), national (e.g. Spain, France, etc.) or international scale (e.g. E-OBS for Europe or Daymet for the United States of America), the proposed methodology has a wide range of applicability in order to fulfill the known gaps of the observational datasets and reduce the uncertainty related to analysis and characterization of the extreme precipitation regime

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. <P style="line-height: 20px;"> The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the central Iberian plateau, which had been previously heated

On the quality of climate proxies derived from newspaper reports ? a case study

International audienceOne of the main problems in climate reconstruction from documentary sources is the evaluation of the quality of non instrumental meteorological records in absence of instrumental observations to perform a calibration. In these cases it is mandatory to envision different approaches to assess the climatic signal in a reconstruction. This work is aimed to test the consistency of a snow frequency reconstruction in the central Argentinean Andes by studying the synoptic patterns related to the occurrence of precipitation in this area. While the original reconstruction covers the period between 1885 and 1996, the insufficiency of overlapping instrumental data limited the calibration to a short 15-year interval. In this paper we evaluate the performance of the reconstructed series for the entire 45-year period between 1958 and 1996 by analyzing the displacement in the jet stream and the patterns of geopotential height related to anomalies in the reconstructed snow frequency series. Previous works have linked the precipitation in the central Andes to the ENSO through the Pacific South American mode. We also have found this connection between ENSO and the reconstructed precipitation. Finally, it is shown that the ENSO relationship is the cause of a significant link between the precipitation anomalies in the central Argentinean Andes and the ice extent around the Antarctic Peninsula

Concurrent Segmentation and Localization for Tracking of Surgical Instruments

Real-time instrument tracking is a crucial requirement for various computer-assisted interventions. In order to overcome problems such as specular reflections and motion blur, we propose a novel method that takes advantage of the interdependency between localization and segmentation of the surgical tool. In particular, we reformulate the 2D instrument pose estimation as heatmap regression and thereby enable a concurrent, robust and near real-time regression of both tasks via deep learning. As demonstrated by our experimental results, this modeling leads to a significantly improved performance than directly regressing the tool position and allows our method to outperform the state of the art on a Retinal Microsurgery benchmark and the MICCAI EndoVis Challenge 2015.Comment: I. Laina and N. Rieke contributed equally to this work. Accepted to MICCAI 201

Análisis de los vínculos afectivos en personas con adicción, desde una perspectiva fenomenológica

En el presente trabajo de investigación, en el apartado de la problematización, se analizan las principales causas o condiciones que permite que las familias sean vulnerables a que alguno o algunos de sus integrantes lleguen al consumo de sustancias adictivas. Para ello, por una parte, se revisan investigaciones hechas al respecto; posteriormente, se entrevistan a tres familias que tiene a integrante adicto, y se hacen tres observaciones de campo, donde se pueden observar las dinámicas de los lugares donde sucede el consumo. Luego se analiza bibliografía que abordan los temas de los vínculos afectivos, las adicciones y las características familiares que favorecen la vulnerabilidad; habiendo comprendido de manera general la relación entre vínculos afectivos y adiciones, se realizan entrevistas a profundidad de corte fenomenológico, a dos personas, quienes han tenido una importante trayectoria de su vida en las adicciones, han sido rehabilitadas y que ahora contribuyen a la rehabilitación de quienes se encuentran en el problema; previo, durante y después de las entrevistas se hacen observaciones de las diversas dinámicas que suceden alrededor y dentro de las casas de rehabilitación o centros de auto ayuda. Posteriormente se analizan cada una de las entrevistas y se estructuran los resultados, en las cuales se responderán las preguntas: ¿Qué son los vínculos afectivos? ¿Cómo se gestan? ¿Qué papel tiene la familia para su estructuración, fragmentación y debilitamiento? ¿Qué consecuencias experimentan las personas ante la fractura de los vínculos? ¿Los centros de rehabilitación tienen elementos que contribuyen a la estructuración y revinculación humana

Future trends of snowfall days in northern Spain from ENSEMBLES regional climate projections

In a previous study Pons et al. (Clim Res 54(3):197-207, 2010. doi:10.3354/cr01117g) reported a significant decreasing trend of snowfall occurrence in the Northern Iberian Peninsula since the mid 70s. The study was based on observations of annual snowfall frequency (measured as the annual number of snowfall days NSD) from a network of 33 stations ranging from 60 to 1350 m. In the present work we analyze the skill of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to reproduce this trend for the period 1961-2000 (using both reanalysis- and historical GCM-driven boundary conditions) and the trend and the associated uncertainty of the regional future projections obtained under the A1B scenario for the first half of the twenty-first century. In particular, we consider the regional simulation dataset from the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project, consisting of thirteen state-of-the-art RCMs run at 25 km resolution over Europe. While ERA40 severely underestimates both the mean NSD and its observed trend (-2.2 days/decade), the corresponding RCM simulations driven by the reanalysis appropriately capture the interannual variability and trends of the observed NSD (trends ranging from -3.4 to -0.7, -2.1 days/decade for the ensemble mean). The results driven by the GCM historical runs are quite variable, with trends ranging from -8.5 to 0.2 days/decade (-1.5 days/decade for the ensemble mean), and the greatest uncertainty by far being associated with the particular GCM used. Finally, the trends for the future 2011-2050 A1B runs are more consistent and significant, ranging in this case from -3.7 to -0.5 days/decade (-2.0 days/decade for the ensemble mean), indicating a future significant decreasing trend. These trends are mainly determined by the increasing temperatures, as indicated by the interannual correlation between temperature and NSD (-0.63 in the observations), which is preserved in both ERA40- and GCM-driven simulations.This research has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreements 606799 (INTACT Project). The RCM simulations used in this study were obtained from the European Union-funded FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract No. 505539)

A shift in the spatial pattern of Iberian droughts during the 17th century

In this paper, series of drought occurrence and drought extension in the Iberian Peninsula are constructed for the 1600–1750 period from seven rogation series. These rogation ceremony records come from Bilbao, Catalonia, Zamora, Zaragoza, Toledo, Murcia and Seville. They are distributed across the Peninsula and include the areas with the most characteristic Iberian climate types, influenced by the Atlantic and the Mediterranean conditions, described from modern data. A seasonal division of the series shows that spring is a critical season for rogation series in most of Iberia, being Bilbao the only site were the highest number of rogations is detected for a different season. The annual analysis of the series shows a dramatic difference between the first half of the 17th century when droughts are characterized by its local character; and the rest of the period, when they affect to broader regions or even to the whole Peninsula. The analysis of spring series confirms the existence of the two periods detected in the annual analysis. Finally, secondary documentary sources are used to further characterise the two most extended droughts in the period, 1664 and 1680, and to verify the extension of the areas affected by droughts recorded through rogation series

A model for the biochemical degradation of inosine monophosphate in hake (Merluccius merluccius)

7 páginas, 3 tablas, 3 figuras, 1 apéndiceATP-derived products are typically used as early indicators of fish quality loss during storage. In this work, we explore different biochemical routes that are potentially relevant in contributing to nucleotide degradation in hake (Merluccius merluccius). A major motivation of this study is to get more insight on the biochemical degradation mechanisms of nucleotide catabolites in hake muscle at fish storage and transport conditions. This requires the identification of its relevant pathways. To that purpose, different degradation routes proposed in the literature are considered and a mathematical model for the degradation process is derived. First order kinetics are assumed for all the reactions and temperature dependence is taken into account through the Arrhenius equation. Unknown model parameters, namely activation energies and pre-exponential Arrhenius coefficients, are estimated via fitting to experimental data. From the estimation results, relevant routes are identified. The kinetic study is performed on sterile fish juice to avoid coupling with microbial degradation mechanisms or possible interferences of the food matrix that might hide biochemical interactions. The proposed scheme adequately describes biochemical changes in nucleotide catabolites under variable temperature profiles. It also reveals a pathway which at least seems relevant for nucleotide degradation in hakeThe authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Projects ISFORQUALITY AGL2012-39951-C02-01, PIE 201230E042 and RESISTANCE DPI2014-54085-JIN)Peer reviewe

Contribución a la educación para la innovación y el emprendimiento en estudiantes de las ingenierías industriales

En la Universidad de Cádiz, profesores pertenecientes a las Áreas de Conocimiento de Ciencia de los Materiales e Ingeniería Metalúrgica y de Organización de Empresas han adaptado actividades académicas a las metodologías propuestas en el Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior (EEES), para promover el desarrollo de competencias específicas de los Grados en Ingenierías. En particular, se ha potenciado el aprendizaje basado en problemas combinando la herramienta CES EduPack (aplicación para la selección de materiales y procesos) con información económica adicional, todo ello para promover el autoaprendizaje desde el punto de vista económico y técnico en la selección de materiales y su proceso productivo para el diseño industrial. Se ha animado a los alumnos a proponer una idea de negocio para desarrollar un nuevo producto, a seleccionar materiales alternativos para un producto ya existente, o bien a optimizar un sistema productivo. En esta comunicación se presentan las pautas seguidas y los resultados y conclusiones obtenidos tras las diferentes actividades realizadas. En general estas actividades han servido para promover la innovación y el emprendimiento entre el alumnado a distintos niveles de detalle a lo largo de sus estudios. De hecho, se han presentado varios proyectos fin de carrera que proponen y especifican con un alto nivel de detalle rediseñar productos ya existentes desde la perspectiva del eco-diseño.Peer Reviewe