Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020; @Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title = {Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events}, howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}

Giant half-cycle attosecond pulses

Half-cycle picosecond pulses have been produced from thin photo-conductors, when applying an electric field across the surface and switching on conduction by a short laser pulse. Then the transverse current in the wafer plane emits half-cycle pulses in normal direction, and pulses of 500 fs duration and 1e6 V/m peak electric field have been observed. Here we show that single half-cycle pulses of 50 as duration and up to 1e13 V/m can be produced when irradiating a double foil target by intense few-cycle laser pulses. Focused onto an ultra-thin foil, all electrons are blown out, forming a uniform sheet of relativistic electrons. A second layer, placed at some distance behind, reflects the drive beam, but lets electrons pass straight. Under oblique incidence, beam reflection provides the transverse current, which emits intense half-cycle pulses. Such a pulse may completely ionize even heavier atoms. New types of attosecond pump-probe experiments will become possible.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, to be presented at LEI2011-Light at Extreme Intensities and China-Germany Symposium on Laser Acceleratio

Simulation of water entry of a two-dimension finite wedge with flow detachment

A two-dimensional finite wedge entering water obliquely at a prescribed speed is considered through the velocity potential theory for the incompressible liquid. The gravity is also included. The problem is solved by using the boundary element method in the time domain. The method of the stretched coordinate system is adopted at the initial stage. A condition is imposed at the intersection of the free surface and the body surface after flow detachment to allow the liquid to leave the body surface smoothly. A new methodology is developed to treat free jet with free surface on both sides. The auxiliary function method is used to calculate the pressure on the body surface. Detailed results for the free surface shape and pressure distribution are provided, and the effect of physical parameters on water entry is discussed

Mixed integer programming in production planning with backlogging and setup carryover : modeling and algorithms

This paper proposes a mixed integer programming formulation for modeling the capacitated multi-level lot sizing problem with both backlogging and setup carryover. Based on the model formulation, a progressive time-oriented decomposition heuristic framework is then proposed, where improvement and construction heuristics are effectively combined, therefore efficiently avoiding the weaknesses associated with the one-time decisions made by other classical time-oriented decomposition algorithms. Computational results show that the proposed optimization framework provides competitive solutions within a reasonable time

An iterative algorithm for parametrization of shortest length shift registers over finite rings

The construction of shortest feedback shift registers for a finite sequence S_1,...,S_N is considered over the finite ring Z_{p^r}. A novel algorithm is presented that yields a parametrization of all shortest feedback shift registers for the sequence of numbers S_1,...,S_N, thus solving an open problem in the literature. The algorithm iteratively processes each number, starting with S_1, and constructs at each step a particular type of minimal Gr\"obner basis. The construction involves a simple update rule at each step which leads to computational efficiency. It is shown that the algorithm simultaneously computes a similar parametrization for the reciprocal sequence S_N,...,S_1.Comment: Submitte

Use of dietary indices to control for diet in human gut microbiota studies

Background: Environmental factors have a large influence on the composition of the human gut microbiota. One of the most influential and well-studied is host diet. To assess and interpret the impact of non-dietary factors on the gut microbiota, we endeavoured to determine the most appropriate method to summarise community variation attributable to dietary effects. Dietary habits are multidimensional with internal correlations. This complexity can be simplified by using dietary indices that quantify dietary variance in a single measure and offer a means of controlling for diet in microbiota studies. However, to date, the applicability of different dietary indices to gut microbiota studies has not been assessed. Here, we use food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) data from members of the TwinsUK cohort to create three different dietary measures applicable in western-diet populations: The Healthy Eating Index (HEI), the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) and the Healthy Food Diversity index (HFD-Index). We validate and compare these three indices to determine which best summarises dietary influences on gut microbiota composition. Results: All three indices were independently validated using established measures of health, and all were significantly associated with microbiota measures; the HEI had the highest t values in models of alpha diversity measures, and had the highest number of associations with microbial taxa. Beta diversity analyses showed the HEI explained the greatest variance of microbiota composition. In paired tests between twins discordant for dietary index score, the HEI was associated with the greatest variation of taxa and twin dissimilarity. Conclusions: We find that the HEI explains the most variance in, and has the strongest association with, gut microbiota composition in a western (UK) population, suggesting that it may be the best summary measure to capture gut microbiota variance attributable to habitual diet in comparable populations

Patent Human Infections with the Whipworm, Trichuris trichiura, Are Not Associated with Alterations in the Faecal Microbiota

Background: The soil-transmitted helminth (STH), Trichuris trichiura colonises the human large intestine where it may modify inflammatory responses, an effect possibly mediated through alterations in the intestinal microbiota. We hypothesised that patent T. trichiura infections would be associated with altered faecal microbiota and that anthelmintic treatment would induce a microbiota resembling more closely that observed in uninfected individuals. Materials and Methods: School children in Ecuador were screened for STH infections and allocated to 3 groups: uninfected, T. trichiura only, and mixed infections with T. trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides. A sample of uninfected children and those with T. trichiura infections only were given anthelmintic treatment. Bacterial community profiles in faecal samples were studied by 454 pyrosequencing of 16 S rRNA genes. Results: Microbiota analyses of faeces were done for 97 children: 30 were uninfected, 17 were infected with T. trichiura, and 50 with T. trichiura and A. lumbricoides. Post-treatment samples were analyzed for 14 children initially infected with T. trichiura alone and for 21 uninfected children. Treatment resulted in 100% cure of STH infections. Comparisons of the microbiota at different taxonomic levels showed no statistically significant differences in composition between uninfected children and those with T. trichiura infections. We observed a decreased proportional abundance of a few bacterial genera from the Clostridia class of Firmicutes and a reduced bacterial diversity among children with mixed infections compared to the other two groups, indicating a possible specific effect of A. lumbricoides infection. Anthelmintic treatment of children with T. trichiura did not alter faecal microbiota composition. Discussion: Our data indicate that patent human infections with T. trichiura may have no effect on faecal microbiota but that A. lumbricoides colonisation might be associated with a disturbed microbiota. Our results also catalogue the microbiota of rural Ecuadorians and indicate differences with individuals from more urban industrialised societies

Surfactant protein D modulates HIV infection of both T-cells and dendritic cells

Surfactant Protein D (SP-D) is an oligomerized C-type lectin molecule with immunomodulatory properties and involvement in lung surfactant homeostasis in the respiratory tract. SP-D binds to the enveloped viruses, influenza A virus and respiratory syncytial virus and inhibits their replication in vitro and in vivo. SP-D has been shown to bind to HIV via the HIV envelope protein gp120 and inhibit infectivity in vitro. Here we show that SP-D binds to different strains of HIV (BaL and IIIB) and the binding occurs at both pH 7.4 and 5.0 resembling physiological relevant pH values found in the body and the female urogenital tract, respectively. The binding of SP-D to HIV particles and gp120 was inhibited by the presence of several hexoses with mannose found to be the strongest inhibitor. Competition studies showed that soluble CD4 and CVN did not interfere with the interaction between SP-D and gp120. However, soluble recombinant DC-SIGN was shown to inhibit the binding between SP-D and gp120. SP-D agglutinated HIV and gp120 in a calcium dependent manner. SP-D inhibited the infectivity of HIV strains at both pH values of 7.4 and 5.0 in a concentration dependent manner. The inhibition of the infectivity was abolished by the presence of mannose. SP-D enhanced the binding of HIV to immature monocyte derived dendritic cells (iMDDCs) and was also found to enhance HIV capture and transfer to the T-cell like line PM1. These results suggest that SP-D can bind to and inhibit direct infection of T-cells by HIV but also enhance the transfer of infectious HIV particles from DCs to T-cells in vivo