Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background—Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods—We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings—Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation—For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade

Global disease burden due to antibiotic resistance – state of the evidence

The absence of comprehensive and reliable estimates of the global health burden due to antibiotic resistance makes it difficult to assess trends and harder to justify the allocation of adequate resources to deal with the problem

Mortality From Cardiovascular Diseases in Sub-saharan Africa, 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis of Data From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been the leading cause of death in developed countries for most of the last century. Most CVD deaths, however, occur in low- and middle-income, developing countries (LMICs) and there is great concern that CVD mortality and burden are rapidly increasing in LMICs as a result of population growth, ageing and health transitions. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where all countries are part of the LMICs, the pattern, magnitude and trends in CVD deaths remain incompletely understood, which limits formulation of data-driven regional and national health policies

Comparing research investment to United Kingdom institutions and published outputs for tuberculosis, HIV and malaria: A systematic analysis across 1997-2013

Background: The "Unfinished Agenda" of infectious diseases is of great importance to policymakers and research funding agencies that require ongoing research evidence on their effective management. Journal publications help effectively share and disseminate research results to inform policy and practice. We assess research investments to United Kingdom institutions in HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, and analyse these by numbers of publications and citations and by disease and type of science. Methods: Information on infection-related research investments awarded to United Kingdom institutions across 1997-2010 were sourced from funding agencies and individually categorised by disease and type of science. Publications were sourced from the Scopus database via keyword searches and filtered to include only publications relating to human disease and containing a United Kingdom-based first and/or last author. Data were matched by disease and type of science categories. Investment (United Kingdom pounds) and publications were compared to generate an 'investment per publication' metric; similarly, an 'investment per citation' metric was also developed as a measure of the usefulness of research. Results: Total research investment for all three diseases was £1.4 billion, and was greatest for HIV (£651.4 million), followed by malaria (£518.7 million) and tuberculosis (£239.1 million). There were 17,271 included publications, with 9,322 for HIV, 4,451 for malaria, and 3,498 for tuberculosis. HIV publications received the most citations (254,949), followed by malaria (148,559) and tuberculosis (100,244). According to UK pound per publication, tuberculosis (£50,691) appeared the most productive for investment, compared to HIV (£61,971) and malaria (£94,483). By type of science, public health research was most productive for HIV (£27,296) and tuberculosis (£22,273), while phase I-III trials were most productive for malaria (£60,491). According to UK pound per citation, tuberculosis (£1,797) was the most productive area for investment, compared to HIV (£2,265) and malaria (£2,834). Public health research was the most productive type of science for HIV (£2,265) and tuberculosis (£1,797), whereas phase I-III trials were most productive for malaria (£1,713). Conclusions: When comparing total publications and citations with research investment to United Kingdom institutions, tuberculosis research appears to perform best in terms of efficiency. There were more public health-related publications and citations for HIV and tuberculosis than other types of science. These findings demonstrate the diversity of research funding and outputs, and provide new evidence to inform research investment strategies for policymakers, funders, academic institutions, and healthcare organizations.Infectious Disease Research Networ

National disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) for 257 diseases and injuries in Ethiopia, 1990–2015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015

Background: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) provide a summary measure of health and can be a critical input to guide health systems, investments, and priority-setting in Ethiopia. We aimed to determine the leading causes of premature mortality and disability using DALYs and describe the relative burden of disease and injuries in Ethiopia. Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for non-fatal disease burden, cause-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality to derive age-standardized DALYs by sex for Ethiopia for each year. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each age group and sex. Causes of death by age, sex, and year were measured mainly using Causes of Death Ensemble modeling. To estimate YLDs, a Bayesian meta-regression method was used. We reported DALY rates per 100,000 for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases, and injuries, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia. Results: Non-communicable diseases caused 23,118.1 (95% UI, 17,124.4–30,579.6), CMNN disorders resulted in 20,200.7 (95% UI, 16,532.2–24,917.9), and injuries caused 3781 (95% UI, 2642.9–5500.6) age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 in Ethiopia in 2015. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis were the top three leading causes of DALYs in 2015, accounting for 2998 (95% UI, 2173.7–4029), 2592.5 (95% UI, 1850.7–3495.1), and 2562.9 (95% UI, 1466.1–4220.7) DALYs per 100,000, respectively. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were the fourth and fifth leading causes of age-standardized DALYs, with rates of 2535.7 (95% UI, 1603.7–3843.2) and 2159.9 (95% UI, 1369.7–3216.3) per 100,000, respectively. The following causes showed a reduction of 60% or more over the last 25 years: lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, meningitis, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, iron-deficiency anemia, measles, war and legal intervention, and maternal hemorrhage

The respiratory research agenda in primary care in Portugal: a Delphi study

Background: A research agenda can help to stimulate and guide research. The International Primary Care Respiratory Group (IPCRG) published a Research Needs Statement (RNS) in 2010 in which 145 research questions were identified. In 2012, priorities for respiratory research were established, based on these questions. To date, there has been no statement on primary care respiratory research needs in Portugal. The aim of the study was to develop a national consensus on research priorities in respiratory diseases in primary care in Portugal and to assess the applicability of the priorities for respiratory research set by the IPCRG. Method: We conducted a Delphi study by electronic mail with a panel of experts on respiratory disease from primary and secondary care in Portugal. In the first round, the research needs in respiratory disease in Portugal were identified. In the second round, 196 research questions in six disease areas, derived from the first round and from the IPCRG Respiratory needs statement, were prioritised on a five-point Likert-type scale. In the third round, the questions were prioritized again with feed-back provided on the median scores for each item in the second round. Consensus was considered to have been reached when 80 % of the participants gave a score of 4 or 5 out of five on a given item. Results: The 40 experts identified 121 respiratory research questions in Round 1 and expressed their views on 196 questions in Rounds 2 and 3. Twelve research questions (6 %) reached consensus. There were five questions in the asthma domain on early diagnosis, pulmonary function tests, the use of inhalers, and adherence to treatment. There were four questions in the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease domain on vaccinations, on routine monitoring and evaluation of treatment, on diagnosis, and on adherence to treatments. There was one question in the smoking domain on the effects of brief counselling. There were two questions on respiratory tract infections on the treatment of children and on the prescription of antibiotics. An additional 23 research questions (12 %) achieved consensus between 75 and 79 %. Conclusion: The results reflect the Portuguese reality in response the international agenda for research on respiratory diseases published by the IPCRG. They can support the development of future respiratory disease research in Portugal.Financial support for this work was provided by FEDER funds through the Operational Programme Competitiveness Factors - COMPETE and National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology under the project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007038; and by the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000013, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). PMT is partially supported by a grant from the International Primary Care Respiratory Group

Antibiotics in childhood pneumonia: how long is long enough?

Improved access to healthcare, vaccines and treatment with antibiotics has reduced global mortality from childhood community-acquired pneumonia. However, as respiratory viruses are responsible for most episodes of pneumonia, important questions remain over who should receive these agents and the length of each treatment course. Worldwide concerns with increasing antibiotic resistance in respiratory pathogens and appeals for more prudent antibiotic prescribing provide further urgency to these clinical questions. Unfortunately, guidelines for treatment duration in particular are based upon limited (and often weak) evidence, resulting in national and international guidelines recommending treatment courses for uncomplicated pneumonia ranging from 3 to 10 days. The advantages of short-course therapy include a lower risk of developing antibiotic resistance, improved adherence, fewer adverse drug effects, and reduced costs. The risks include treatment failure, leading to increased short- or long-term morbidity, or even death. The initial challenge is how to distinguish between bacterial and non-bacterial causes of pneumonia and then to undertake adequately powered randomised-controlled trials of varying antibiotic treatment durations in children who are most likely to have bacterial pneumonia. Meanwhile, healthcare workers should recognise the limitations of current pneumonia treatment guidelines and remember that antibiotic course duration is also determined by the child’s response to therapy.Griffith Health, School of MedicineFull Tex