Don't know, can't know: Embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website at the link below. Copyright @ 2011 The Royal Society.Numerous types of uncertainty arise when using formal models in the analysis of risks. Uncertainty is best seen as a relation, allowing a clear separation of the object, source and ‘owner’ of the uncertainty, and we argue that all expressions of uncertainty are constructed from judgements based on possibly inadequate assumptions, and are therefore contingent. We consider a five-level structure for assessing and communicating uncertainties, distinguishing three within-model levels—event, parameter and model uncertainty—and two extra-model levels concerning acknowledged and unknown inadequacies in the modelling process, including possible disagreements about the framing of the problem. We consider the forms of expression of uncertainty within the five levels, providing numerous examples of the way in which inadequacies in understanding are handled, and examining criticisms of the attempts taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to separate the likelihood of events from the confidence in the science. Expressing our confidence in the adequacy of the modelling process requires an assessment of the quality of the underlying evidence, and we draw on a scale that is widely used within evidence-based medicine. We conclude that the contingent nature of risk-modelling needs to be explicitly acknowledged in advice given to policy-makers, and that unconditional expressions of uncertainty remain an aspiration

Beyond shareholder primacy? Reflections on the trajectory of UK corporate governance.

Core institutions of UK corporate governance, in particular the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers, the Combined Code on Corporate Governance and the law on directors’ duties, are strongly orientated towards the norm of shareholder primacy. Beyond the core, however, stakeholder interests are better represented, in particular at the intersection of insolvency and employment law. This reflects the influence of European Community laws on information and consultation of employees. In addition, there are signs that some institutional shareholders are redirecting their investment strategies, under government encouragement, away from a focus on short-term returns, in such a way as to favour stakeholder-inclusive practices by firms. On this basis we suggest that the UK system is currently in a state of flux and that the debate over shareholder primacy has not been concluded

Improving statistical skills through students’ participation in the development of resources

This paper summarizes the evaluation of a project that involved undergraduate mathematics students in the development of teaching and learning resources for statistics modules taught in various departments of a university. This evaluation regards students’ participation in the project and its impact on their learning of statistics, as characterized in terms of statistical reasoning, statistical thinking, and skills for statistical consultancy. The participation of students is evaluated from the viewpoint of communities of practice. The evaluation resulted in a characterization of the benefits of such a project and suggestions for implementations of future projects, and in addition brought to light new theoretical elements both as regards the learning of statistics and as regards communities of practice. In particular, the analysis highlighted contributions of the students involved to resource development practice in the community of university statistics teachers, as well as contributions to students’ learning as a result of participation in this community

New England Regional Health Equity Profile & Call to Action

Good health is a foundation that allows people to participate in the most important aspects of life. The purpose of the New England Regional Health Equity Profile and Call to Action is to identify where differences in good health exist among racial, ethnic, and disability populations in New England as well as foster policy, programmatic, and individual action to combat health disparities and achieve health equity for racial, ethnic, disability and underserved populations in New England. The report was written by the members of the New England Regional Health Equity Council (RHEC), one of ten regional health equity councils formed by the Office of Minority Health at the federal Department of Health and Human Services. The mission of the New England RHEC is to achieve health equity for all through collective action in the New England region. The New England RHEC’s vision is to achieve health equity through cross-sector interaction and collaboration of activities and resources to optimize health for all where they live, learn, work, and play. The New England Regional Health Equity Profile and Call to Action uses a “social determinants of health” approach. A social determinants of health approach focuses on understanding how the intersection of the social and physical environments; individual behaviors; and access to education, income, healthy foods and health care, impacts a wide range of health and quality-of-life outcomes. The report examines the following topics: Socio-Economic Status, Healthy Eating and Physical Activity, Risky Behaviors, Cultural Competency in Health Care, Health Care Access, Health Outcomes, and the Intersection of Race/Ethnicity & Disability. It also includes a description of State Health Equity Activities and a Regional Call to Action

Traps of multi-level governance. Lessons from the implementation of the Water Framework Directive in Italy

During recent decades, different patterns of multi-level governance (MLG) have spread across Europe as a consequence of Europeanisation of public policies, which have increasingly adopted decentralized and participatory procedures conceived as a tool of more effective and accountable policy-making. It appears, however, that the implementation of operational designs based on MLG may be rather problematic and it does not necessarily bring to the expected performance improvements. Referring to the case of the EU Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), which conceives the creation of new multi-level institutional settings as a key tool for enacting a new holistic approach to water management and protection, this article explores the difficulties that the implementation of such settings has brought in Italy, despite some favorable pre-conditions existing in the country. Evidence is provided that along with institutional and agency variables, the implementation effectiveness of MLG arrangements promoted by the EU can be challenged by their inherent characteristics

The ConStratO model of handover: a tool to support technology design and evaluation

Handovers are a specific kind of multidisciplinary team meeting. Shift handovers and transfers are both regular features of hospital work but there is currently great variation in how such handovers are conducted, presenting a challenging for those seeking to develop technology to support handover. This paper presents the ConStratO model of handover, which captures aspects of the context that influence how the handover is conducted, a range of different handover strategies relating to different aspects of the handover, and possible outcomes of handover. The model is based on detailed data collection in a range of clinical settings. We present the model as a tool for developing and evaluating technology support for handover

Power Station Foundations in Deep Expansive Soil

The site for a large (3600 MW) thermal power station is underlain by deep expansive soils which posed difficult conditions for the design of stable foundations. After describing the soil and ground-water conditions and attendant foundation problems, the paper goes on to describe how the amount and rate of heave were predicted. Most of the foundations are piled, but the piles will be subject to uplift as the soil swells. Large scale tests to acquire information for the prediction of uplift forces are described, as well as measures for reducing the uplift forces

Are prices of new dwellings different? A spectral analysis of UK property vintages

The work makes two contributions to Hui’s (2011) dynamic house price classification. First, a house price ripple in cycles from Modern to Older dwellings is revealed and, second, as New housing is shown to have lower volatility than the other two. Using spectral analysis, it is argued that there is a 7½-year repeat buyer-second-hand cycle and a five year, first time buyer-New housing cycle, common to three house price vintages. These cycles reinforce each other every fifteen years, which corresponds with a Minsky super-cycle in housing finance. The equity of the owner-occupier is fortified by higher house prices whereas new builds extract embedded equity from the market. Government should support builders and facilitate access to market to first time buyers and through programmes like Help-to-Buy 1. However, to address the greater price instability that should follow, Government should impose a capital gains tax on the house seller

Structural Material Property Tailoring Using Deep Neural Networks

Advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning are ushering in a new age of automation, as machines match or outperform human performance. Machine intelligence can enable businesses to improve performance by reducing errors, improving sensitivity, quality and speed, and in some cases achieving outcomes that go beyond current resource capabilities. Relevant applications include new product architecture design, rapid material characterization, and life-cycle management tied with a digital strategy that will enable efficient development of products from cradle to grave. In addition, there are also challenges to overcome that must be addressed through a major, sustained research effort that is based solidly on both inferential and computational principles applied to design tailoring of functionally optimized structures. Current applications of structural materials in the aerospace industry demand the highest quality control of material microstructure, especially for advanced rotational turbomachinery in aircraft engines in order to have the best tailored material property. In this paper, deep convolutional neural networks were developed to accurately predict processing-structure-property relations from materials microstructures images, surpassing current best practices and modeling efforts. The models automatically learn critical features, without the need for manual specification and/or subjective and expensive image analysis. Further, in combination with generative deep learning models, a framework is proposed to enable rapid material design space exploration and property identification and optimization. The implementation must take account of real-time decision cycles and the trade-offs between speed and accuracy