The Business Case for a Journey Planning and Ticketing App—Comparison between a Simulation Analysis and Real-World Data

Successful development of “Mobility-as-a-Service” (MaaS) schemes could be transformative to our transport systems and critical for achieving sustainable cities. There are high hopes for mobile phone applications that offer both journey planning and ticketing across all the available transport modes, but these are in their infancy, with little understanding of the correct approach to business models and governance. In this study, we develop a system dynamics diffusion model that represents the uptake of such an app, based on one developed and released in West Yorkshire, UK. We perform sensitivity and uncertainty tests on user uptake and app operating profitability, and analyse these in three key areas of marketing, competition, and costs. Comparison to early uptake data is included to demonstrate accuracy of model behaviour and would suggest market failure by month 12 without stronger marketing, even if additional tickets and functions are offered. In response to this, we offer further insights on the need for direct targeted marketing to ensure mass market adoption, the importance of understanding a realistic potential adopter pool, the awareness of competing apps, and the high uncertainty that exists in this market

Pathways to achieving radically different urban walking and cycling futures in the UK by 2030

This paper builds upon earlier work which was presented at Walk21 in 2009 and 2010 which outlined the development of a number of radically different visions for the role of walking and cycling in urban areas in the year 2030. These visions, which were developed through consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, present a 2030 where walking and cycling play a significantly greater role in urban transportation than is currently the case, accounting for as much as 80% of urban trips in the most extreme vision. Previous reported work had focussed on the kinds of measures, contextual background and lifestyle changes which would be required to support such visions, how urban areas may appear and the practicalities of daily life. Subsequent research (not yet reported in the public domain) has developed methods for constructing pathways to show how these visions might be reached. A pathway (in a specific city) to the successful occurrence of a vision is defined as being made up of a combination of developments on two separate levels: a Macro level , involving both developments external to the transport system and developments within the transport system but “out of control” of the local authority of the city concerned ; and a Micro level, involving developments within the control of the city’s local authority. The trajectory of developments on a particular level is referred to as a ‘storyline’, so that a distinction is made between Macro - storylines and Micro- storylines. Whilst generic macro - storylines have been developed which are relevant to all UK cities, micro - storylines can only be constructed ‘locally’ by those with sufficient knowledge of a particular city. The focus of the current paper is upon two workshops carried out in the summer of 2011 in the UK cities of Leeds and Norwich. The main purpose of these workshops was to explore how one of the visions could be mapped/adapted to their specific local circumstances and to develop pathways for achieving this vision, taking into account three alternative macro - storylines. The workshops aimed to attract relatively senior people from the local authorities in each area and representatives of stakeholder groups . The workshop size was between 10 - 15 people. The underlying aim of such exercises is to encourage city authorities and stakeholders to think in a more structured, systematic way about how the various potentially -conflicting issues concerning walking and cycling would play out in a long - term future, taking into account that the ‘external environment’ (e.g. the national economy) is highly unpredictable. The paper presents the results from the Leeds and Norwich workshops in terms of the local visions and pathways that they produced. Special attention is paid to results concerned with policies that directly facilitate walking, whilst recognising that a large number of factors (all urban transport modes, land use patterns, ‘society’) have impacts (direct or indirect) on walking. Various conclusions are presented, both with regard to transport policy and the methodology for constructing the visions/pathways and running the workshops

Understanding the Operation of Motorcycle Taxi Drivers in Nigeria Using Causal Loop Diagram

Road safety is a subject of concern the world over and many studies have looked into how to improve safe travel. Motorcycles, including motorcycle taxis, are particularly vulnerable. This paper reports the outcome of a study conducted on motorcycle taxi safety problems using a system dynamics method. Qualitative data was obtained from the field and analysed using qualitative analysis methods. The outcome of the qualitative analysis led to the formulation of a dynamic hypothesis for a system dynamics approach, whose first step was to develop and analyse a causal loop diagram [CLD]. This CLD demonstrates how deterrence, a behavioural pattern that can be produced by the appropriate application of sanctions, is both strengthened and weakened within the system. The paper uses this analysis to provide insights about the behavioural patterns of motorcycle taxi operation in Nigeria. These insights include the possibility of maintaining the system at equilibrium for a desired level of deterrence as well as the possibility of breaking undesirable cycles of bribery and jumping arrest loops. These insights can also be useful in other countries of the world where motorcycle taxis operate

A Systemic Analysis of Impacts of Individual and Shared Automated Mobility in Austria

Rationale: Increasing digitalization and automation is expected to significantly change the transport system, mobility and settlement structures. A decade ago automated, self-driving vehicles were nothing more than an unrealistic (boyhood) dream. But today the concept of highly and fully automated vehicles is rapidly becoming a reality, with a series of real-world trial applications underway. Government plans and industry predictions expect automation to be introduced from the early 2020s onwards. Nevertheless, there is still a high level of uncertainty in which form and to what extent automated vehicles will enter the market. Furthermore, there are ongoing discussions concerning net effects of positive and negative aspects of automation. Background: The authors have been involved in several research projects analyzing potential impacts of automated driving. The EU funded project CityMobil (Towards Advanced Road Transport for the Urban Environment) was one of first to address automated driving on a large scale. As part of this project the System Dynamics based model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) was adapted to assess scenarios of automated driving in four European cities. Simulations demonstrated that automated vehicles integrated into public transport have a potential to reduce car kilometers travelled and improve carbon footprint. On the contrary, privately owned automated vehicles lead to an increase in car kilometers travelled and carbon footprint, unless propulsion technology is changed. While the focus of CityMobil was on the urban scale, the nationally funded Austrian project Shared Autonomy (Potential Effects of the Take-up of Automated Vehicles in Rural Areas – own translation) focused on rural areas. The findings of Shared Autonomy show potential contributions of automated cars to improve the environmental situation and social inclusion in rural areas. Finally, the nationally funded Austrian project SAFiP (System Scenarios Automated Driving in Personal Mobility) takes a look at the national territory of Austria. Method: The relationship between vehicle automation, travel demand and environmental effects consists of a multitude of complex cause-effect-chains. The toolbox of System Dynamics offers appropriate methods to tackle such complexities. Causal Loop Diagrams are used to analyze and discuss relevant cause-effect-chains and are used to adapt an existing Stock-Flow-Model of the Austrian land use and transport demand system. The modified Stock-Flow-Model is used for a quantitative impact assessment. Sensitivity analysis in form of Monte-Carlo-Simulations is employed to tackle the high level of uncertainty concerning key factors. Findings, results: The key factors, influencing mode choice and travel demand, are generalized costs of travel time, weighted costs of use and availability. The automation of driving, expressed as the share of highly and fully automated vehicles in the fleet, is influencing all three key factors via different cause-effect-chains and feedback loops. In SAFiP we identified four key impact sources: automated and remote parking, road capacity and travel speed, value of in-vehicle time and widening the range of users. Sensitivity tests for each of the impact sources have been carried out. Widening the range of users has the highest impact on a national level, potentially increasing car kilometers by about 17 percent in 2050. Remote parking increases car kilometers by about 5 percent in total, ranging from about 1 percent in peripheral districts to about 17 percent in Vienna

How can health care organisations make and justify decisions about risk reduction? Lessons from a cross-industry review and a health care stakeholder consensus development process

Interventions to reduce risk often have an associated cost. In UK industries decisions about risk reduction are made and justified within a shared regulatory framework that requires that risk be reduced as low as reasonably practicable. In health care no such regulatory framework exists, and the practice of making decisions about risk reduction is varied and lacks transparency. Can health care organisations learn from relevant industry experiences about making and justifying risk reduction decisions? This paper presents lessons from a qualitative study undertaken with 21 participants from five industries about how such decisions are made and justified in UK industry. Recommendations were developed based on a consensus development exercise undertaken with 20 health care stakeholders. The paper argues that there is a need in health care to develop a regulatory framework and an agreed process for managing explicitly the trade-off between risk reduction and cost. The framework should include guidance about a health care specific notion of acceptable levels of risk, guidance about standardised risk reduction interventions, it should include regulatory incentives for health care organisations to reduce risk, and it should encourage the adoption of an approach for documenting explicitly an organisation’s risk position

International Comparison of Transport Appraisal Practice - Annex 2 Germany Country Report

This report is a review of recent developments in economic appraisal in the transport sector and the use of appraisal in the decision making process in Germany. It is an annex to a report in which appraisal practice in England, and its development, is compared with that in Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, USA, Australia (NSW), and New Zealand as exemplars of good practice and varied institutional arrangements

International Comparison of Transport Appraisal Practice - Annex 1 England Country Report

This report is a review of recent developments in economic appraisal in the transport sector and the use of appraisal in the decision making process in England. It is the annex to a report in which appraisal practice in England, and its development, is compared with that in Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, USA, Australia (NSW), and New Zealand as exemplars of good practice and varied institutional arrangements

Integration von dynamischer Verkehrssimulation und Wirkungsanalyse für die Entwicklung ressourcenschonender Verkehrsmanagement-Strategien

Um zu verhindern, dass die Nutzung von Telematik zu unerwünschten negativen Effekten führt, müssen Verkehrsmanagement-Strategien jenseits der blichen nutzeroptimalen Lsungen entwickelt werden. Mit diesem Ziel werden in dieser Arbeit dynamische Verkehrssimulationsmodelle und verfeinerte Prognose- und Auswertungsmodelle gekoppelt, mit denen Strategien hinsichtlich ihrer Umweltwirkungen und wirtschaftlichen Effizienz bewertet werden können. Hierfür stehen dynamische, mikroskopische Verkehrsmodelle zur Verfügung, die im Rahmen des "stadtinfoköln"-Projektes zu Prognoseinstrumenten weiter entwickelt werden. Als Ergebnis der Integration dieser Modelle mit Modellen zur strategischen Prognose und Bewertung von Verkehrswirkungen lassen sich erste Bandbreiten für die Wirksamkeit und Effizienz einzelner Verkehrsmanagement-Maßnahmen abschätzen. Gleichzeitig wird die Notwendigkeit zur Verfeinerung der Umweltmodelle deutlich, um den dynamischen Aspekten des Verkehrsablaufes Rechnung zu tragen. Daher werden Modelle zur Emissionsprognose im Straenverkehr weiterentwickelt und mit vorhandenen Simulationsmodellen (PELOPS) abgestimmt, welche die Fahrdynamik der Fahrzeuge berücksichtigen. Auf Basis der Ergebnisse werden erste Szenarien für Management-Strategien gezielt so entwickelt, dass vorgegebene Umwelt- und Sicherheitsziele erreicht und Wirtschaftlichkeitskriterien maximiert werden. Mittelfristig ist das Ziel, intelligente Entscheidungsunterstützungssysteme aufzubauen, die Verkehrsmanagern bei aus gemessenen Verkehrsdaten rekonstruierten realen Verkehrssituationen effiziente, ressourcensparende Lösungen von Verkehrsproblemen offerieren