Four patients with a history of acute exacerbations of COPD: implementing the CHEST/Canadian Thoracic Society guidelines for preventing exacerbations

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Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

A national survey on violence and discrimination among people with disabilities

Background: The aim of the study was to quantify levels of violence and discrimination among people with disabilities and analyze the effects of gender and the type and degree of disability. Methods: The study analyzed data on self-reported violence and discrimination from a Danish national survey of 18,019 citizens, of whom 4519 reported a physical disability and 1398 reported a mental disability. Results: Individuals with disabilities reported significantly higher levels of violence than those without. Specifically, individuals reporting a mental disability reported higher levels of violence and discrimination. Significant gender differences were found with regard to type of violence: while men with disabilities were more likely to report physical violence, women with disabilities were more likely to report major sexual violence, humiliation and discrimination. Neither severity nor visibility of disability was found to be a significant factor for risk of violence. Conclusions: This large-scale study lends support to existing research showing that people with disabilities are at greater risk of violence than people without disabilities. Further, the study found that people with mental disabilities were significantly more likely to report all types of violence and discrimination than those with physical disabilities. The findings also show that gender is significant in explaining the type of violence experienced and the experience of discrimination

Predictive validity of the CriSTAL tool for short-term mortality in older people presenting at Emergency Departments: a prospective study

© 2018, The Author(s). Abstract: To determine the validity of the Australian clinical prediction tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CRISTAL) based on objective clinical criteria to accurately identify risk of death within 3 months of admission among older patients. Methods: Prospective study of ≥ 65 year-olds presenting at emergency departments in five Australian (Aus) and four Danish (DK) hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was used to model factors for death prediction; Sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve and calibration with bootstrapping techniques were used to describe predictive accuracy. Results: 2493 patients, with median age 78–80 years (DK–Aus). The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% CI 7.7–8.6 vs. 5.8 95% CI 5.6–5.9) and Danish mean 7.1 (95% CI 6.6–7.5 vs. 5.5 95% CI 5.4–5.6). The model with Fried Frailty score was optimal for the Australian cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (AUROC 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the Danish cohort were AUROC 0.764 with Fried and 0.794 using CFS. The most significant independent predictors of short-term death in both cohorts were advanced malignancy, frailty, male gender and advanced age. CriSTAL’s accuracy was only modest for in-hospital death prediction in either setting. Conclusions: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried’s frailty instrument) has good discriminant power to improve prognostic certainty of short-term mortality for ED physicians in both health systems. This shows promise in enhancing clinician’s confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions

For whom is a health-promoting intervention effective? Predictive factors for performing activities of daily living independently

BACKGROUND: Health-promoting interventions tailored to support older persons to remain in their homes, so-called "ageing in place" is important for supporting or improving their health. The health-promoting programme "Elderly Persons in the Risk Zone," (EPRZ) was set up for this purpose and has shown positive results for maintaining independence in activities of daily living for older persons 80 years and above at 1- and 2 year follow-ups. The aim of this study was to explore factors for maintaining independence in the EPRZ health-promoting programme.METHODS: Total of 459 participants in the original trial was included in the analysis; 345 in the programme arm and 114 in the control arm. Thirteen variables, including demographic, health, and programme-specific indicators, were chosen as predictors for independence of activities of daily living. Logistic regression was performed separately for participants in the health promotion programme and in the control arm.RESULTS: In the programme arm, being younger, living alone and self-rated lack of tiredness in performing mobility activities predicted a positive effect of independence in activities of daily living at 1-year follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 1.18, 1.73, 3.02) and 2-year, (OR 1.13, 2.01, 2.02). In the control arm, being less frail was the only predictor at 1-year follow up (OR 1.6 1.09, 2.4); no variables predicted the outcome at the 2-year follow-up.CONCLUSIONS: Older persons living alone - as a risk of ill health - should be especially recognized and offered an opportunity to participate in health-promoting programmes such as "Elderly Persons in the Risk Zone". Further, screening for subjective frailty could form an advantageous guiding principle to target the right population when deciding to whom health-promoting intervention should be offered.TRIAL REGISTRATION: The original clinical trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. Identifier: NCT00877058 , April 6, 2009

Proinflammatory genotype is associated with the frailty phenotype in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Background: Frailty is a state of increased vulnerability to poor resolution of homeostasis after a stressor event, which increases the risk of adverse outcomes including falls, disability and death. The underlying pathophysiological pathways of frailty are not known but the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis and heightened chronic systemic inflammation appear to be major contributors. Methods: We used the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing dataset of 3160 individuals over the age of 50 and assessed their frailty status according to the Fried-criteria. We selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes involved in the steroid hormone or inflammatory pathways and performed linear association analysis using age and sex as covariates. To support the biological plausibility of any genetic associations, we selected biomarker levels for further analyses to act as potential endophenotypes of our chosen genetic loci. Results: The strongest association with frailty was observed in the Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) (rs1800629, P = 0.001198, β = 0.0894) and the Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase, Receptor type, J (PTPRJ) (rs1566729, P = 0.001372, β = 0.09397) genes. Rs1800629 was significantly associated with decreased levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (P = 0.00949) and cholesterol levels (P = 0.00315), whereas rs1566729 was associated with increased levels of HDL (P = 0.01943). After correcting for multiple testing none of the associations remained significant. Conclusions: We provide potential evidence for the involvement of a multifunctional proinflammatory cytokine gene (TNF) in the frailty phenotype. The implication of this gene is further supported by association with the endophenotype biomarker results

A self-report risk index to predict occurrence of dementia in three independent cohorts of older adults: The ANU-ADRI

Background and Aims: The Australian National University AD Risk Index (ANU-ADRI, http://anuadri.anu.edu.au) is a self-report risk index developed using an evidence-based medicine approach to measure risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We aimed to evaluate the extent to which the ANU-ADRI can predict the risk of AD in older adults and to compare the ANU-ADRI to the dementia risk index developed from the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study for middle-aged cohorts. Methods: This study included three validation cohorts, i.e., the Rush Memory and Aging Study (MAP) (n = 903, age ≥53 years), the Kungsholmen Project (KP) (n = 905, age ≥75 years), and the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study (CVHS) (n = 2496, age ≥65 years) that were each followed for dementia. Baseline data were collected on exposure to the 15 risk factors included in the ANU-ADRI of which MAP had 10, KP had 8 and CVHS had 9. Risk scores and C-statistics were computed for individual participants for the ANU-ADRI and the CAIDE index. Results: For the ANU-ADRI using available data, the MAP study c-statistic was 0.637 (95% CI 0.596-0.678), for the KP study it was 0.740 (0.712-0.768) and for the CVHS it was 0.733 (0.691-0.776) for predicting AD. When a common set of risk and protective factors were used c-statistics were 0.689 (95% CI 0.650-0.727), 0.666 (0.628-0.704) and 0.734 (0.707-0.761) for MAP, KP and CVHS respectively. Results for CAIDE ranged from c-statistics of 0.488 (0.427-0.554) to 0.595 (0.565-0.625). Conclusion: A composite risk score derived from the ANU-ADRI weights including 8-10 risk or protective factors is a valid, self-report tool to identify those at risk of AD and dementia. The accuracy can be further improved in studies including more risk factors and younger cohorts with long-term follow-up. © 2014 Anstey et al

Prevalence and correlates of frailty in an older rural African population:findings from the HAALSI cohort study

Background: Frailty is a key predictor of death and dependency, yet little is known about frailty in sub-Saharan Africa despite rapid population ageing. We describe the prevalence and correlates of phenotypic frailty using data from the Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of an INDEPTH Community cohort. Methods: We analysed data from rural South Africans aged 40 and over. We used low grip strength, slow gait speed, low body mass index, and combinations of self-reported exhaustion, decline in health, low physical activity and high self-reported sedentariness to derive nine variants of a phenotypic frailty score. Each frailty category was compared with self-reported health, subjective wellbeing, impairment in activities of daily living and the presence of multimorbidity. Cox regression analyses were used to compare subsequent all-cause mortality for non-frail (score 0), pre-frail (score 1–2) and frail participants (score 3+). Results: Five thousand fifty nine individuals (mean age 61.7 years, 2714 female) were included in the analyses. The nine frailty score variants yielded a range of frailty prevalences (5.4% to 13.2%). For all variants, rates were higher in women than in men, and rose steeply with age. Frailty was associated with worse subjective wellbeing, and worse self-reported health. Both prefrailty and frailty were associated with a higher risk of death during a mean 17 month follow up for all score variants (hazard ratios 1.29 to 2.41 for pre-frail vs non-frail; hazard ratios 2.65 to 8.91 for frail vs non-frail). Conclusions: Phenotypic frailty could be measured in this older South African population, and was associated with worse health, wellbeing and earlier death

Learning curves of basic laparoscopic psychomotor skills in SINERGIA VR simulator

Purpose: Surgical simulators are currently essential within any laparoscopic training program because they provide a low-stakes, reproducible and reliable environment to acquire basic skills. The purpose of this study is to determine the training learning curve based on different metrics corresponding to five tasks included in SINERGIA laparoscopic virtual reality simulator. Methods: Thirty medical students without surgical experience participated in the study. Five tasks of SINERGIA were included: Coordination, Navigation, Navigation and touch, Accurate grasping and Coordinated pulling. Each participant was trained in SINERGIA. This training consisted of eight sessions (R1–R8) of the five mentioned tasks and was carried out in two consecutive days with four sessions per day. A statistical analysis was made, and the results of R1, R4 and R8 were pair-wise compared with Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Significance is considered at P value <0.005. Results: In total, 84.38% of the metrics provided by SINERGIA and included in this study show significant differences when comparing R1 and R8. Metrics are mostly improved in the first session of training (75.00% when R1 and R4 are compared vs. 37.50% when R4 and R8 are compared). In tasks Coordination and Navigation and touch, all metrics are improved. On the other hand, Navigation just improves 60% of the analyzed metrics. Most learning curves show an improvement with better results in the fulfillment of the different tasks. Conclusions: Learning curves of metrics that assess the basic psychomotor laparoscopic skills acquired in SINERGIA virtual reality simulator show a faster learning rate during the first part of the training. Nevertheless, eight repetitions of the tasks are not enough to acquire all psychomotor skills that can be trained in SINERGIA. Therefore, and based on these results together with previous works, SINERGIA could be used as training tool with a properly designed training program