Hydrological Monitoring with Hybrid Sensor Networks

Existing hydrological monitoring systems suffer from short- comings in accuracy, resolution, and scalability. Their fragility, high power consumption, and lack of autonomy necessitate frequent site visits. Cabling requirements and large size limit their scalability and make them prohibitively expensive. The research described in this paper proposes to alleviate these problems by pairing high-resolution in situ measure- ment with remote data collection and software maintenance. A hybrid sensor network composed of wired and wireless connections autonomously measures various attributes of the soil, including moisture, temperature, and resistivity. The mea- surements are communicated to a processing server over the existing GSM cellular infrastructure. This system enables the collection of data at a scale and resolution that is orders of magnitude greater than any existing method, while dramatically reducing the cost of monitoring. The quality and sheer volume of data collected as a result will enable previously infeasible research in hydrology

Modelling disaster risk behaviour on the household level

Disaster risk is a combination of natural hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. While the natural hazard can be seen as exogenously given on the household level, exposure and vulnerability are highly heterogeneous. A collection of empirical studies (see references) has investigated the impact of household characteristics (such as education, awareness, access to prevention measures, and time preference) on exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters. However, a theoretical model being able to replicate these findings is still missing in the literature. We propose such a dynamic household model, which consequently allows for better predictions and estimations regarding the impacts and the effectiveness of various community wide policy measures aiming to decrease disaster risk

CRASH2 in Germany [ISRCTN86750102]

ABSTRACT: In June 2005, the Study Centre of the German Surgical Society (SDGC) in Heidelberg, Germany, agreed to participate in the investigator initiated trial CRASH2. Regulatory and administrative affairs within Germany were assigned to the Coordination Centre for Clinical Trials (KKS) at the University of Heidelberg, Germany. For more than nine months the KKS and the SDGC have been trying to procure a separate insurance for CRASH2 in Germany. Unfortunately, these attempts have not been successful, yet. One major reason is the way in which German authorities and authorities of some other countries have interpreted the EU Directive (Directive 2001/20/EC) with regards to the need for "adequate" indemnity for clinical trials. The indemnity insurance for CRASH2 procured by the LSHTM for all participating hospitals throughout the world (except for the USA) did not comply with the limits required by the federal German drug law (AMG)

Should I stay or should I go: Modelling disaster risk behaviour using a dynamic household level approach

In the last decades, many parts of the world faced an increase in the number of extreme weather events and worsening climate conditions endangering the livelihood of households in developing countries that rely on their local environment. While various empirical studies have identified key factors of exposure and vulnerability to disaster risk, we still lack a conceptual understanding of how these forces interact and how they impact household decision making. To gain insight into these mechanisms we set up a dynamic household model where households face environmental hazards. To respond to the risk, households can either relocate to a safer area or undertake preventive measures. Both actions require material and immaterial resources, which constrain the household's decision. Households are assumed to be heterogeneous with respect to key empirically identified factors for individual disaster risk: education, income, risk awareness, time preference and their access to preventive measures. This paper provides analytical insights into the short-run decision making of households derived from the theoretical framework as well as an extensive numerical investigation. To parameterize and calibrate the model we use data from Thailand and Vietnam. The roles of household characteristics on the short-term decision-making and long-run outcomes of households' well-being and disaster risk is discussed. We conclude the paper with an extensive evaluation of different policy interventions including housing and prevention cost subsidies as well as income transfers with respect to their heterogeneous effects on different sub-populations

Should the COVID-19 lockdown be relaxed or intensified in case a vaccine becomes available?

Immediately after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Early 2020, most affected countries reacted with strict lockdown to limit the spread of the virus. Since that time, the measures were adapted on a short time basis according to certain numbers (i.e., number of infected, utilization of intensive care units). Implementing a long-term optimal strategy was not possible since a forecast when R&D will succeed in developing an effective vaccination was not available. Our paper closes this gap by assuming a stochastic arrival rate of the COVID-19 vaccine with the corresponding change in the optimal policy regarding the accompanying optimal lockdown measures. The first finding is that the lockdown should be intensified after the vaccine approval if the pace of the vaccination campaign is rather slow. Secondly, the anticipation of the vaccination arrival also leads to a stricter lockdown in the period without vaccination. For both findings, an intuitive explanation is offered

Quantifying Economic Dependency

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change

Chasing up and locking down the virus: Optimal pandemic interventions within a network

During the COVID-19 pandemic countries invested significant amounts of resources into its containment. In early stages of the pandemic most of the (nonpharmaceutical) interventions can be classified into two groups: (i) testing and identification of infected individuals, (ii) social distancing measures to reduce the transmission probabilities. Furthermore, both groups of measures may, in principle, be targeted at certain subgroups of a networked population. To study such a problem, we propose an extension of the SIR model with additional compartments for quarantine and different courses of the disease across several network nodes. We develop the structure of the optimal allocation and study a numerical example of three symmetric regions that are subject to an asymmetric progression of the disease (starting from an initial hotspot). Key findings include that (i) for our calibrations policies are chosen in a “flattening-the-curve,” avoiding hospital congestion; (ii) policies shift from containing spillovers from the hotspot initially to establishing a symmetric pattern of the disease; and (iii) testing that can be effectively targeted allows to reduce substantially the duration of the disease, hospital congestion and the total cost, both in terms of lives lost and economic costs

Development and delivery of an exercise programme for falls prevention: the Prevention of Falls Injury Trial (PreFIT)

This paper describes the development and implementation of an exercise intervention to prevent falls within The Prevention of Fall Injury Trial (PreFIT), which is a large multi-centred randomised controlled trial based in the UK National Health Service (NHS).Using the template for intervention description and replication (TIDieR) checklist, to describe the rationale and processes for treatment selection and delivery of the PreFIT exercise intervention.Based on the results of a validated falls and balance survey, participants were eligible for the exercise intervention if they were at moderate or high risk of falling.Intervention development was informed using the current evidence base, published guidelines, and pre-existing surveys of clinical practice, a pilot study and consensus work with therapists and practitioners. The exercise programme targets lower limb strength and balance, which are known, modifiable risk factors for falling. Treatment was individually tailored and progressive, with seven recommended contacts over a six-month period. Clinical Trials Registry (ISCTRN 71002650)

Optimization in age-structured dynamic economic models

Age structured optimal control models experience increasing applications in various research fields including e.g., demography, economics, operations research, epidemiology environmental economics. In this paper we present the mathematical theory and potential applications of age-structured optimal control models. We first state the general form of the problem and present the necessary optimality conditions. To illustrate the mathematical theory we introduce a toy model on air pollution, where consumption induces pollution which in turn negatively effects utility, fertility and mortality. We solve the model analytically and present numerical simulations. The potential of age-structure to solve non-standard optimal control models is demonstrated by considering optimal control models with random switches or time-lags and delays

An interdisciplinary intervention to prevent falls in community-dwelling elderly persons: protocol of a cluster-randomized trial [PreFalls]

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prevention of falls in the elderly is a public health target in many countries around the world. While a large number of trials have investigated the effectiveness of fall prevention programs, few focussed on interventions embedded in the general practice setting and its related network. In the Prevent Falls (PreFalls) trial we aim to investigate the effectiveness of a pre-tested multi-modal intervention compared to usual care in this setting.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>PreFalls is a controlled multicenter prospective study with cluster-randomized allocation of about 40 general practices to an experimental or a control group. We aim to include 382 community dwelling persons aged 65 and older with an increased risk of falling. All participating general practitioners are trained to systematically assess the risk of falls using a set of validated tests. Patients from intervention practices are invited to participate in a 16-weeks exercise program with focus on fall prevention delivered by specifically trained local physiotherapists. Patients from practices allocated to the control group receive usual care. Main outcome measure is the number of falls per individual in the first 12 months (analysis by negative binomial regression). Secondary outcomes include falls in the second year, the proportion of participants falling in the first and the second year, falls associated with injury, risk of falls, fear of falling, physical activity and quality of life.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Reducing falls in the elderly remains a major challenge. We believe that with its strong focus on a both systematic and realistic fall prevention strategy adapted to primary care setting PreFalls will be a valuable addition to the scientific literature in the field.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01032252">NCT01032252</a></p