The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Volcanic activity and hazard in the East African Rift Zone

Over the past two decades, multidisciplinary studies have unearthed a rich history of volcanic activity and unrest in the densely-populated East African Rift System, providing new insights into the influence of rift dynamics on magmatism, the characteristics of the volcanic plumbing systems and the foundation for hazard assessments. The raised awareness of volcanic hazards is driving a shift from crisis response to reducing disaster risks, but a lack of institutional and human capacity in sub-Saharan Africa means baseline data are sparse and mitigating geohazards remains challenging

Low pH immobilizes and kills human leukocytes and prevents transmission of cell-associated HIV in a mouse model

BACKGROUND: Both cell-associated and cell-free HIV virions are present in semen and cervical secretions of HIV-infected individuals. Thus, topical microbicides may need to inactivate both cell-associated and cell-free HIV to prevent sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS. To determine if the mild acidity of the healthy vagina and acid buffering microbicides would prevent transmission by HIV-infected leukocytes, we measured the effect of pH on leukocyte motility, viability and intracellular pH and tested the ability of an acidic buffering microbicide (BufferGel(®)) to prevent the transmission of cell-associated HIV in a HuPBL-SCID mouse model. METHODS: Human lymphocyte, monocyte, and macrophage motilities were measured as a function of time and pH using various acidifying agents. Lymphocyte and macrophage motilities were measured using video microscopy. Monocyte motility was measured using video microscopy and chemotactic chambers. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) viability and intracellular pH were determined as a function of time and pH using fluorescent dyes. HuPBL-SCID mice were pretreated with BufferGel, saline, or a control gel and challenged with HIV-1-infected human PBMCs. RESULTS: Progressive motility was completely abolished in all cell types between pH 5.5 and 6.0. Concomitantly, at and below pH 5.5, the intracellular pH of PBMCs dropped precipitously to match the extracellular medium and did not recover. After acidification with hydrochloric acid to pH 4.5 for 60 min, although completely immotile, 58% of PBMCs excluded ethidium homodimer-1 (dead-cell dye). In contrast, when acidified to this pH with BufferGel, a microbicide designed to maintain vaginal acidity in the presence of semen, only 4% excluded dye at 10 min and none excluded dye after 30 min. BufferGel significantly reduced transmission of HIV-1 in HuPBL-SCID mice (1 of 12 infected) compared to saline (12 of 12 infected) and a control gel (5 of 7 infected). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that physiologic or microbicide-induced acid immobilization and killing of infected white blood cells may be effective in preventing sexual transmission of cell-associated HIV

On the Suitability of Estelle for Multimedia Systems

Formal Description Techniques have been widely used for the specification of traditional networked applications. They have not been applied to the specification of new applications such as multimedia systems yet. In this paper, we examine the FDT Estelle with respect to its suitability for multimedia system specification and automatic derivation of efficient implementations. We show that it is possible to specify certain aspects of multimedia systems, but that Estelle is not sufficient for others. The derived implementations often perform badly. We show the reasons and propose to use a slightly modified Estelle syntax and semantics to solve the problems. The implemented solution was tested successfully

Assessing fossil fuel CO₂ emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO2 by measuring radiocarbon (14C) in CO2, an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014–15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board's reported ffCO2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California's reported ffCO2 emissions in 2014–15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions

Fractal space-times under the microscope: A Renormalization Group view on Monte Carlo data

The emergence of fractal features in the microscopic structure of space-time is a common theme in many approaches to quantum gravity. In this work we carry out a detailed renormalization group study of the spectral dimension $d_s$ and walk dimension $d_w$ associated with the effective space-times of asymptotically safe Quantum Einstein Gravity (QEG). We discover three scaling regimes where these generalized dimensions are approximately constant for an extended range of length scales: a classical regime where $d_s = d, d_w = 2$, a semi-classical regime where $d_s = 2d/(2+d), d_w = 2+d$, and the UV-fixed point regime where $d_s = d/2, d_w = 4$. On the length scales covered by three-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations, the resulting spectral dimension is shown to be in very good agreement with the data. This comparison also provides a natural explanation for the apparent puzzle between the short distance behavior of the spectral dimension reported from Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT), Euclidean Dynamical Triangulations (EDT), and Asymptotic Safety.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figure

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force consensus proposal: Medical treatment of canine epilepsy in Europe

In Europe, the number of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) licensed for dogs has grown considerably over the last years. Nevertheless, the same questions remain, which include, 1) when to start treatment, 2) which drug is best used initially, 3) which adjunctive AED can be advised if treatment with the initial drug is unsatisfactory, and 4) when treatment changes should be considered. In this consensus proposal, an overview is given on the aim of AED treatment, when to start long-term treatment in canine epilepsy and which veterinary AEDs are currently in use for dogs. The consensus proposal for drug treatment protocols, 1) is based on current published evidence-based literature, 2) considers the current legal framework of the cascade regulation for the prescription of veterinary drugs in Europe, and 3) reflects the authors’ experience. With this paper it is aimed to provide a consensus for the management of canine idiopathic epilepsy. Furthermore, for the management of structural epilepsy AEDs are inevitable in addition to treating the underlying cause, if possible

JWST/MIRI Data Reduction and Products

The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) is one of four science instruments to be flown aboard the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). MIRI operates from 5 to 28.5 microns and provides a suite of versatile capabilities including imaging, low-resolution spectroscopy (LRS), medium-resolution spectroscopy (MRS) via an integral field unit, and coronagraphy. The MIRI pipeline consists of three stages: 1) Raw to Slope Images, 2) Calibrated Slope Images, and 3) Multiple Exposures Combined. The pipeline is designed to provide well-calibrated, high level data products that maximize the scientific return from the instrument