Estimating the volatility of property assets

When an investor is allocating assets between equities, bonds and property, this allocation needs to provide a portfolio with an appropriate risk/return trade-off: for instance, a pension scheme may prefer a robust portfolio that holds its aggregate value in a number of different situations. In order to do this, some estimate needs to be made of the volatility or uncertainty in the property assets, in order to use that in the same way as the volatilities of equities and bonds are used in the allocation. However, property assets are only valued monthly or quarterly (and are sold only rarely) whereas equities and bonds are priced continuously and recorded daily. Currently many actuaries may assume that the volatility of property assets is between those of equities and bonds, but without quantifying it from real data. The challenge for the Study Group is to produce a model for estimating the volatility or uncertainty in property asset values, for use in portfolio planning. The Study Group examined contexts for the use of volatility estimates, particularly in relation to solvency calculations as required by the Financial Services Authority, fund trustees and corporate boards, and it proposed a number of possible approaches. This report summarises that work, and it suggests directions for further investigation

Cognitive performance and its relationship with postprandial metabolic changes after ingestion of different macronutrients in the morning

The effect of carbohydrate, protein and fat ingestion on simple as well as complex cognitive functions and the relationship between the respective postprandial metabolic changes and changes in cognitive performance were studied in fifteen healthy male students. Subjects were tested in three sessions, separated by 1 week, for short-term changes in blood variables, indirect calorimetry, subjective performance and different objective performance tasks using a repeated-measures counterbalanced cross-over design. Measurements were made after an overnight fast before and hourly during 3 h after test meal ingestion. Test meals consisted of either pure carbohydrates, protein or fat and were served as isoenergetic (1670 kJ) spoonable creams with similar sensory properties. Most aspects of subjective performance did not differ between test meals. For all objective tasks, however, postprandial cognitive performance was best after fat ingestion concomitant with an almost constant glucose metabolism and constant metabolic activation state measured by glucagon:insulin (G:I). In contrast, carbohydrate as well as protein ingestion resulted in lower overall cognitive performance, both together with partly marked changes (P<0.001) in glucose metabolism and metabolic activation. They also differently affected specific cognitive functions (P<0.05) in relation to their specific effect on metabolism. Carbohydrate ingestion resulted in relatively better short-term memory and accuracy of tasks concomitant with low metabolic activation, whereas protein ingestion resulted in better attention and efficiency of tasks concomitant with higher metabolic activation. Our findings support the concept that good and stable cognitive performance is related to a balanced glucose metabolism and metabolic activation stat

Un subsidio científico trunco: Mario Bunge y la Asociación Argentina para el Progreso de las Ciencias

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la correspondencia inédita entre Mario Bunge y la Asociación Argentina para el Progreso de las Ciencias. El corpus consiste en un conjunto de cartas intercambiadas en el curso de un pedido de beca formulado en 1944. De acuerdo a este propósito, el estudio del material nos permitirá acrecentar el conocimiento sobre las estrategias para formar grupos de investigación científica en la Argentina durante el período de entreguerras. Los documentos proceden de los Archivos de la Asociación Argentina para el Progreso de las Ciencias, a los que se suma una entrevista con el Dr. Mario Bunge. Este corpus nos permite confirmar varias inquietudes relacionadas con los distintos factores que influenciaban en la adjudicación de becas al comienzo de la organización de la investigación científica local

The zonal currents and transports at 35°W in the tropical Atlantic

The total of 13 existing cross-equatorial shipboard current profiling sections taken during the WOCE period between 1990 and 2002 along 35°W are used to determine the mean meridional structure of the zonal top-to-bottom circulation between the Brazilian coast, near 5°S, and 5°N and to estimate mean transports of the individual identified shallow, intermediate and deep current branches. One of the results is that, on the equator, a mean westward Equatorial Intermediate Current below the Equatorial Undercurrent exists

PROJEÇÃO DA TAXA CUMULATIVA DE ÓBITOS POR COVID-19 NO BRASIL: UM ESTUDO DE MODELAGEM

Purpose: We estimated the potential number of COVID-19 deaths for Brazil for the next months. Methods: The study included all confirmed cases of COVID-19 deaths, from the first confirmed death on March 17 until May 15, 2020. These data were collected from an official Brazilian website of the Ministry of Health. The Boltzmann function was applied to a data simulation for each set of data regarding to all states of the country. Results: The model data were well-fitted, with R2 values close to 0.999. Up to May 15, 14,817 COVID-19 deaths were confirmed in the country. Amazonas has the highest rate of accumulated cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants (321.14), followed by Ceará (161.63). We estimated that Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, Amazonas, Pará, and Pernambuco will experience a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases until July 15. Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina will show lower rates per 1,000,000 inhabitants. Conclusion: We estimate a substantial increase in the rate of cumulative cases in Brazil over the next months. The Boltzmann function proved to be a simple tool for epidemiological forecasting that can assist in the planning of measures to contain COVID-19.Objetivo: estimar o número potencial de mortes por COVID-19 no Brasil nos próximos meses. Métodos: O estudo incluiu todos os casos confirmados de óbitos do COVID-19, desde o primeiro óbito confirmado em 17 de março até 15 de maio de 2020. Esses dados foram coletados no site oficial do Ministério da Saúde. A função Boltzmann foi aplicada a uma simulação de dados para cada conjunto de dados referente a todos os estados do país. Resultados: Os dados do modelo foram bem ajustados, com valores de R² próximos a 0,999. Até 15 de maio, 14.817 mortes de COVID-19 foram confirmadas no país. O Amazonas possui a maior taxa de casos acumulados por 1.000.000 habitantes (321,14), seguido por Ceará (161,63). Estimou-se que o Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, Amazonas, Pará e Pernambuco sofrerão um aumento substancial na taxa de casos acumulados até 15 de julho. Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina apresentarão taxas potenciais mais baixas por 1.000.000 habitantes. Conclusão: Foi estimado um aumento substancial na taxa de casos cumulativos no Brasil nos próximos meses. A função Boltzmann provou ser uma ferramenta simples para previsão epidemiológica que pode auxiliar no planejamento de medidas para conter o COVID-19

Role of Folic Acid in the Therapeutic Action of Nanostructured Porous Silica Functionalized with Organotin(IV) Compounds against Different Cancer Cell Lines

The synthesis, characterization and cytotoxic activity against different cancer cell lines of various mesoporous silica-based materials containing folate targeting moieties and a cytotoxic fragment based on a triphenyltin(IV) derivative have been studied. Two different mesoporous nanostructured silica systems have been used: firstly, micronic silica particles of the MSU-2 type and, secondly, mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSNs) of about 80 nm. Both series of materials have been characterized by different methods, such as powder X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence, absorption spectroscopy and microscopy. In addition, these systems have been tested against four different cancer cell lines, namely, OVCAR-3, DLD-1, A2780 and A431, in order to observe if the size of the silica-based systems and the quantity of incorporated folic acid influence their cytotoxic action. The results show that the materials are more active when the quantity of folic acid is higher, especially in those cells that overexpress folate receptors such as OVCAR-3 and DLD-1. In addition, the study of the potential modulation of the soluble folate receptor alpha (FOLR1) by treatment with the synthesized materials has been carried out using OVCAR-3, DLD-1, A2780 and A431 tumour cell lines. The results show that a relatively high concentration of folic acid functionalization of the nanostructured silica together with the incorporation of the cytotoxic tin fragment leads to an increase in the quantity of the soluble FOLR1 secreted by the tumour cells. In addition, the studies reported here show that this increase of the soluble FOLR1 occurs presumably by cutting the glycosyl-phosphatidylinositol anchor of membrane FR-α and by the release of intracellular FR-α. This study validates the potential use of a combination of mesoporous silica materials co-functionalized with folate targeting molecules and an organotin(IV) drug as a strategy for the therapeutic treatment of several cancer cells overexpressing folate receptors.Spanish Government RTI2018-094322-B-I00 CTQ2017-90802-REDTMinistry of Research and Innovation, CNCS-UEFISCDI within PNCDI III PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-014

Reduced cardiovascular morbidity in patients with hemophilia:results of a 5-year multinational prospective study

Hemophilia is a congenital bleeding disorder caused by low levels of clotting factor VIII or IX. The life expectancy of people with hemophilia (PWH) has increased with the availability of clotting factor concentrates. At the same time, the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has increased; in retrospective studies, there are conflicting data regarding if, despite this increase, the incidence is still lower than in the general population. We prospectively compared the incidence of CVD in PWH vs the predicted incidence. This prospective, multicenter, observational study included adult PWH (aged &gt;30 years) from The Netherlands and United Kingdom. They were followed up for a 5-year period, and CVD incidence was compared with a predicted event rate based on the QRISK2-2011 CVD risk model. The primary end point was the observed fatal and nonfatal CVD incidence after 5 years compared with the estimated events and in relation to severity of hemophilia. The study included 709 patients, of whom 687 (96.9%) completed 5 years' follow-up or reached an end point. For 108 patients, the QRISK score could not be calculated at inclusion. For the remaining 579, fewer CVD events were observed than predicted: 9 vs 24 (relative risk, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.80; P 5 .01), corresponding with an absolute risk reduction of 2.4%. Severe hemophilia treated on demand had the highest risk reduction. There was no statistically significant relation between severity of hemophilia and incidence of CVD. In hemophilia, a lower-than-predicted CVD incidence was found, supporting the theory that hemophilia protects against CVD. The study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01303900.</p