Probabilistic Clustering of Time-Evolving Distance Data

We present a novel probabilistic clustering model for objects that are represented via pairwise distances and observed at different time points. The proposed method utilizes the information given by adjacent time points to find the underlying cluster structure and obtain a smooth cluster evolution. This approach allows the number of objects and clusters to differ at every time point, and no identification on the identities of the objects is needed. Further, the model does not require the number of clusters being specified in advance -- they are instead determined automatically using a Dirichlet process prior. We validate our model on synthetic data showing that the proposed method is more accurate than state-of-the-art clustering methods. Finally, we use our dynamic clustering model to analyze and illustrate the evolution of brain cancer patients over time

Host predisposition by endogenous Transforming Growth Factor-β1 overexpression promotes pulmonary fibrosis following bleomycin injury

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive diffuse disease involving the lung parenchyma. Despite recent advances, the molecular mechanisms of the initiation and progression of this disease remain elusive. Previous studies have demonstrated TGFβ1 as a key effector cytokine in the development of lung fibrosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study we have used a transgenic mouse based strategy to identify the effect of overexpression of this key effector mediator on the development of pulmonary fibrosis in response to exogenous injury. We bred two lines (line 25 and 18) of transgenic mice (Tr+) that overexpressed active TGFβ1. Three-month old transgenic and wild type mice were subsequently wounded with intraperitoneal bleomycin. Mice were sacrificed at 6 weeks post-bleomycin and their lungs analysed histologically and biochemically.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The severity of lung fibrosis was significantly greater in the Tr+ mice compared to the wild type mice. Using an oligonucleotide microarray based strategy we identified discrete patterns of gene expression contributing to TGFβ1 associated pulmonary fibrosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This data emphasises the importance of a host predisposition in the form of endogenous TGFβ1, in the development of pulmonary fibrosis in response to an exogenous injury.</p

Galaxy Harassment and the Evolution of Clusters of Galaxies

Disturbed spiral galaxies with high rates of star formation pervaded clusters of galaxies just a few billion years ago, but nearby clusters exclude spirals in favor of ellipticals. ``Galaxy harassment" (frequent high speed galaxy encounters) drives the morphological transformation of galaxies in clusters, provides fuel for quasars in subluminous hosts and leaves detectable debris arcs. Simulated images of harassed galaxies are strikingly similar to the distorted spirals in clusters at $z \sim 0.4$ observed by the Hubble Space Telescope.Comment: Submitted to Nature. Latex file, 7 pages, 10 photographs in gif and jpeg format included. 10 compressed postscript figures and text available using anonymous ftp from ftp://ftp-hpcc.astro.washington.edu/pub/hpcc/moore/ (mget *) Also available at http://www-hpcc.astro.washington.edu/papers

Mixing patterns and the spread of close-contact infectious diseases

Surprisingly little is known regarding the human mixing patterns relevant to the spread of close-contact infections, such as measles, influenza and meningococcal disease. This study aims to estimate the number of partnerships that individuals make, their stability and the degree to which mixing is assortative with respect to age. We defined four levels of putative at-risk events from casual (physical contact without conversation) to intimate (contact of a sexual nature), and asked university student volunteers to record details on those they contacted at these levels on three separate days. We found that intimate contacts are stable over short time periods whereas there was no evidence of repeat casual contacts with the same individuals. The contacts were increasingly assortative as intimacy increased. Such information will aid the development and parameterisation of models of close contact diseases, and may have direct use in outbreak investigations

Impact of Emerging Antiviral Drug Resistance on Influenza Containment and Spread: Influence of Subclinical Infection and Strategic Use of a Stockpile Containing One or Two Drugs

BACKGROUND: Wide-scale use of antiviral agents in the event of an influenza pandemic is likely to promote the emergence of drug resistance, with potentially deleterious effects for outbreak control. We explored factors promoting resistance within a dynamic infection model, and considered ways in which one or two drugs might be distributed to delay the spread of resistant strains or mitigate their impact. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have previously developed a novel deterministic model of influenza transmission that simulates treatment and targeted contact prophylaxis, using a limited stockpile of antiviral agents. This model was extended to incorporate subclinical infections, and the emergence of resistant virus strains under the selective pressure imposed by various uses of one or two antiviral agents. For a fixed clinical attack rate, R(0) rises with the proportion of subclinical infections thus reducing the number of infections amenable to treatment or prophylaxis. In consequence, outbreak control is more difficult, but emergence of drug resistance is relatively uncommon. Where an epidemic may be constrained by use of a single antiviral agent, strategies that combine treatment and prophylaxis are most effective at controlling transmission, at the cost of facilitating the spread of resistant viruses. If two drugs are available, using one drug for treatment and the other for prophylaxis is more effective at preventing propagation of mutant strains than either random allocation or drug cycling strategies. Our model is relatively straightforward, and of necessity makes a number of simplifying assumptions. Our results are, however, consistent with the wider body of work in this area and are able to place related research in context while extending the analysis of resistance emergence and optimal drug use within the constraints of a finite drug stockpile. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment and prophylaxis represents optimal use of antiviral agents to control transmission, at the cost of drug resistance. Where two drugs are available, allocating different drugs to cases and contacts is likely to be most effective at constraining resistance emergence in a pandemic scenario

Appropriate waist circumference cut points for identifying insulin resistance in black youth: a cross sectional analysis of the 1986 Jamaica birth cohort

Background While the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has ethnic specific waist circumference (WC) cut-points for the metabolic syndrome for Asian populations it is not known whether the cut-points for black populations should differ from those for European populations. We examined the validity of IDF WC cut points for identifying insulin resistance (IR), the underlying cause of the metabolic syndrome, in predominantly black, young Jamaican adults. Methods Participants from a 1986 birth cohort were evaluated between 2005 and 2007 when they were 18-20 years old. Trained observers took anthropometric measurements and collected a fasting blood sample. IR was assessed using the homeostasis model assessment computer programme (HOMA-IR). Sex specific quartiles for IR were generated using HOMA-IR values and participants in the highest quartile were classified as "insulin resistant". Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to estimate the best WC to identify insulin resistance. The sensitivity and specificity of these values were compared with the IDF recommended WC cut-points. Results Data from 707 participants (315 males; 392females) were analysed. In both sexes those with IR were more obese, had higher mean systolic blood pressure, glucose and triglycerides and lower mean HDL cholesterol. The WC was a good predictor of IR with an ROC area under the curve (95% CI) of 0.71(0.64,0.79) for men and 0.72(0.65,0.79) for women. Using the Youden Index (J) the best WC cut point for identifying IR in male participants was 82 cm (sensitivity 45%, specificity 93%, J 0.38) while the standard cut point of 94 cm had a sensitivity of 14% and specificity of 98% (J 0.12). In the female participants 82 cm was also a good cut point for identifying IR (sensitivity 52%, specificity 87%, J 0.39) and was similar to the standard IDF 80 cm cut point (sensitivity 53%, specificity 82%, J 0.35). Conclusions The WC that identified IR in young black men is lower than the IDF recommended WC cut point. Sex differences in WC cut points for identifying IR were less marked in this population than in other ethnic groups

Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts among social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolution are limited, so that data is not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamical aspect of the contacts is disregarded. Here, we want to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns among individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. We consider high resolution data of face-to-face interactions between the attendees of a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions is simulated through an SEIR model, using both the dynamical network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such network, in order to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation which retains only the topology of the contact network fails in reproducing the size of the epidemic. These results have important implications in understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics