The Financial Crisis and the Changing Profile of Mortgage Arrears in Ireland. ESRI Research Notes 2014/4/2

Understanding which households go into mortgage arrears during both boom and bust periods in Ireland is of critical importance to ensure suitable policies are deployed to safeguard future financial stability. Many of the difficulties in Ireland arose from the loosening of underwriting standards by financial institutions. This led to excessive household leverage ratios and provided households with limited buffers with which to absorb shocks (McCarthy and McQuinn, 2017; Lydon and McCann, 2017). The joint effects of labour market difficulties and large falls in house prices led to a situation where nearly one-in-five mortgage loans was in arrears at the height of the crisis (McCarthy, 2014)

Monetary policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market. ESRI WP613, March 2019

In this paper we examine the sensitivity of mortgage arrears for Irish households to changes in mortgage interest rates under a series of plausible monetary policy normalisation scenarios. Using panel data over the period 2004 - 2016 we exploit information on current income and current mortgage repayments to link arrears to the level of, as well as shocks in, households' current debt service ratio. In doing so we address gaps in the existing literature on modelling default and stress testing. Both are found to be strong drivers of arrears indicating the level of indebtedness, as well as changes to repayment capacity, matter for households. We find that a 100 basis point increase in policy rates would lead to a 0.5 percentage point increase in new default flows. We also test for heterogeneous effects across households and find younger, low income households and those on tracker mortgage rate loans are most at risk following rate rises. This has important consequences for the distributional impacts of monetary policy

Mining mobility and settlement during an East African gold boom: seeking fortune and accommodating fate

In light of Shiller’s concept of ‘irrational exuberance’, we interrogate migrants’ optimistic material expectations at artisanal and industrial gold mining locations during a period of exceptional mobility spurred by the international gold boom of 2000–2013. Our household survey and interview findings reveal miners’ and residents’ mobility and settlement patterns in three Tanzanian gold mining settlements, representing different stages and forms of mining along a trajectory of deepening gold extraction and increasing urbanization. Resident miners’, traders’ and service providers’ personal motivations, strategies and dilemmas surface. The constancy of migrants’ motivation for economic betterment and the contingency of their strategic thinking in the face of gold supply uncertainty emerges clearly. However, mining site residents’ highly mobile lives entail toleration of temporary, inadequate housing in infrastructurally deficient, polluted and unsafe mining environments, a situation at odds with their aims for lifestyle enhancement. Given the unpredictability of gold production, residents reconcile their expectations of striking it rich with the reality of sub-optimal outcomes. Those who gain satisfaction and esteem in their careers are likely to do so through high levels of mobility, ultimately rewarded with desirable housing and settlement locations, whereas others adapt to constrained mobility and unenviable settlement locations, or abandon mining

Genome-Wide Association Study of Susceptibility to Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a complex lung disease characterised by scarring of the lung that is believed to result from an atypical response to injury of the epithelium. Genome-wide association studies have reported signals of association implicating multiple pathways including host defence, telomere maintenance, signalling and cell-cell adhesion. Objectives: To improve our understanding of factors that increase IPF susceptibility by identifying previously unreported genetic associations. Methods and measurements: We conducted genome-wide analyses across three independent studies and meta-analysed these results to generate the largest genome-wide association study of IPF to date (2,668 IPF cases and 8,591 controls). We performed replication in two independent studies (1,456 IPF cases and 11,874 controls) and functional analyses (including statistical fine-mapping, investigations into gene expression and testing for enrichment of IPF susceptibility signals in regulatory regions) to determine putatively causal genes. Polygenic risk scores were used to assess the collective effect of variants not reported as associated with IPF. Main results: We identified and replicated three new genome-wide significant (P<5×10−8) signals of association with IPF susceptibility (associated with altered gene expression of KIF15, MAD1L1 and DEPTOR) and confirmed associations at 11 previously reported loci. Polygenic risk score analyses showed that the combined effect of many thousands of as-yet unreported IPF susceptibility variants contribute to IPF susceptibility. Conclusions: The observation that decreased DEPTOR expression associates with increased susceptibility to IPF, supports recent studies demonstrating the importance of mTOR signalling in lung fibrosis. New signals of association implicating KIF15 and MAD1L1 suggest a possible role of mitotic spindle-assembly genes in IPF susceptibility

Association study of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) variants and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

IntroductionIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial pneumonia marked by progressive lung fibrosis and a poor prognosis. Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of infection in the pathogenesis of IPF and a prior association of theHLA-DQB1gene with idiopathic fibrotic interstitial pneumonia (including IPF) has been reported. Due to the important role that the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region plays in the immune response, here we evaluated if HLA genetic variation was associated specifically with IPF risk.MethodsWe performed a meta-analysis of associations of the HLA region with IPF risk in individuals of European ancestry from seven independent case-control studies of IPF (comprising a total of 5159 cases and 27 459 controls, including the prior study of fibrotic interstitial pneumonia). Single nucleotide polymorphisms, classical HLA alleles and amino acids were analysed and signals meeting a region-wide association thresholdp&lt;4.5×10−4and a posterior probability of replication &gt;90% were considered significant. We sought to replicate the previously reportedHLA-DQB1association in the subset of studies independent of the original report.ResultsThe meta-analysis of all seven studies identified four significant independent single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with IPF risk. However, none met the posterior probability for replication criterion. TheHLA-DQB1association was not replicated in the independent IPF studies.ConclusionVariation in the HLA region was not consistently associated with risk in studies of IPF. However, this does not preclude the possibility that other genomic regions linked to the immune response may be involved in the aetiology of IPF