Bayesian correlated factor analysis of socio-demographic indicators

Recent changes in European family dynamics are often linked to common latent trends of economic and ideational change. Using Bayesian factor analysis, we extract three latent variables from eight socio-demographic indicators related to family formation, dissolution, and gender system and collected on 19 European countries within four periods (1970, 1980, 1990, 1998). The flexibility of the Bayesian approach allows us to introduce an innovative temporal factor model, adding the temporal dimension to the traditional factorial analysis. The underlying structure of the Bayesian factor model proposed reflects our idea of an autoregressive pattern in the latent variables relative to adjacent time periods. The results we obtain are consistent with current interpretations in European demographic trends

Leaving home, moving to college, and returning home: Economic outcomes in the United States

Leaving the parental home is a milestone in the transition to adulthood. Historical changes in leaving home have been well documented in the literature. However, research investigating the consequences associated with the timing and pathway of leaving (and returning) home is still scant. Building mainly on capital accumulation and life course theories, we analyse data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 on young Americans born between 1980 and 1984, who are 27–31 years old in 2011. We find an M‐shaped relationship between age at leaving home and working and economic conditions later on: Leaving “too early,” “too late,” or at nonnormative ages is negatively associated with labour market outcomes. Also, among those who have been enrolled in college, leaving home to go to college, during college, or after college is positively associated with subsequent income, compared with leaving before college. Moving back in with parents is negatively associated with economic outcomes

Political Islam, Marriage, and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

The plethora of pathways leading to family formation decisions has made the causal assessment of the influence of politics and religion on marriage and fertility difficult. The authors exploit the unique opportunity offered by the emergence of a new political party in Turkey, and the electoral features of the country’s majoritarian system, to estimate the effect of politics and religion on marriage and fertility. The AK Parti (Justice and Development Party), with an explicitly Islamist platform, won Turkish elections in 2002, taking both a pro-natalist and pro-family stance, with increasing welfare expenditures and an explicit neoliberal agenda on macroeconomic issues. The authors analyze the results of the 2004 local elections using a regression discontinuity design and show that fertility and marriage rates have been significantly higher in districts where the AK Parti won. They argue that increased local welfare provision is the main explanatory mechanism, also discussing other alternative and complementary mechanisms

Emancipation under the great recession in Spain.

ABSTRACT: In this paper we document the behavior of emancipation over one of the biggest boom–bust cycles experienced by the Spanish economy. In principle, the economic difficulties faced by the Spanish youth during the last recession would have hampered a normal emancipation pace. However, we find that the proportion living away from parents among those aged 18–40 has not decreased but increased from 44 % during the boom (2005–2008) to 46 % during the bust (2009–2013). A simple decomposition reveals that this is mainly driven by the substantial rise in the emancipation rate among the full-time employed workers during the bust. To explain this change we discuss several factors such as macroeconomic conditions, rental subsidy policy, higher labor mobility, selection bias, reverse causation, timelag in adjustment and secular trend.MEC(IP: María Paz Espinosa Alejos, UPV

Childbearing intentions in a low fertility context: the case of Romania

This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to find out the predictors of fertility intentions in Romania, a low-fertility country. We analyse how attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control relate to the intention to have a child among childless individuals and one-child parents. Principal axis factor analysis confirms which items proposed by the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS 2005) act as valid and reliable measures of the suggested theoretical socio-psychological factors. Four parity-specific logistic regression models are applied to evaluate the relationship between the socio-psychological factors and childbearing intentions. Social pressure emerges as the most important aspect in fertility decision-making among childless individuals and one-child parents, and positive attitudes towards childbearing are a strong component in planning for a child. This paper also underlines the importance of the region-specific factors when studying childbearing intentions: planning for the second child significantly differs among the development regions, representing the cultural and socio-economic divisions of the Romanian territory

Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm

The paper suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in a previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration. Here two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but it is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. The paper provides the questionnaire which was designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian Population from 2010 up to 2065 is proposed

Gender differences in the impact of family background on leaving the parental home

We address the question to what extent characteristics of the family of origin influence the timing of leaving the parental home and to what extent these effects differ between men and women. We use data from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study to examine the effects of parental resources, atmosphere in the family of origin and family structure on leaving home to live without a partner and leaving home to live with a partner. The results indicate that a pleasant atmosphere in the parental home decreases the risk of leaving home and living in stepfamilies or single-parent families increases this risk. The availability of parental resources leads to a decreased risk of leaving home at young ages, but an increased risk at later ages. Many of these effects are found for both men and women and for both pathways out of the home. Furthermore, we find evidence that women are affected more strongly by family background characteristics than men are

A Reflection on Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

none5openVignoli, Daniele; Guetto, Raffaele; Bazzani, Giacomo; Pirani, Elena; Minello, AlessandraVignoli, Daniele; Guetto, Raffaele; Bazzani, Giacomo; Pirani, Elena; Minello, Alessandr