Climate system modeling in the framework of the tolerable windows approach: The ICLIPS climate model

The computational burden associated with applications of theTolerable Windows Approach (TWA) considerably exceeds that oftraditional integrated assessments of global climate change. Aspart of the ICLIPS (Integrated Assessment of Climate ProtectionStrategies) project, a computationally efficient climate model hasbeen developed that can be included in integrated assessmentmodels of any kind. The ICLIPS climate model (ICM) is implementedin GAMS. It is driven by anthropogenic emissions of CO2,CH4, N2O, halocarbons, SF6, andSO2. Theoutput includes transient patterns of near-surface airtemperature, total column-integrated cloud cover fraction,precipitation, humidity, and global mean sea-level rise. Thecarbon cycle module explicitly treats the nonlinear sea watercarbon chemistry and the nonlinear CO2 fertilized biosphereuptake. Patterns of the impact-relevant climate variables arederived form empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis andscaled by the principal component of temperature change. Theevolution of the latter is derived from a box-model-typedifferential analogue to its impulse response function convolutionintegral. We present a description of the ICM components and someresults to demonstrate the model's applicability in the TWA setting

Microbes with higher metabolic independence are enriched in human gut microbiomes under stress

A wide variety of human diseases are associated with loss of microbial diversity in the human gut, inspiring a great interest in the diagnostic or therapeutic potential of the microbiota. However, the ecological forces that drive diversity reduction in disease states remain unclear, rendering it difficult to ascertain the role of the microbiota in disease emergence or severity. One hypothesis to explain this phenomenon is that microbial diversity is diminished as disease states select for microbial populations that are more fit to survive environmental stress caused by inflammation or other host factors. Here, we tested this hypothesis on a large scale, by developing a software framework to quantify the enrichment of microbial metabolisms in complex metagenomes as a function of microbial diversity. We applied this framework to over 400 gut metagenomes from individuals who are healthy or diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We found that high metabolic independence (HMI) is a distinguishing characteristic of microbial communities associated with individuals diagnosed with IBD. A classifier we trained using the normalized copy numbers of 33 HMI-associated metabolic modules not only distinguished states of health versus IBD, but also tracked the recovery of the gut microbiome following antibiotic treatment, suggesting that HMI is a hallmark of microbial communities in stressed gut environments

Challenges to adaptation: a fundamental concept for the shared socio-economic pathways and beyond

The framework for the new scenarios being developed for climate research calls for the development of a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are meant to differ in terms of their challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. In order for the scenario process to fulfill its goals, the research and policy communities need to develop a shared understanding of these concepts. This paper focuses on challenges to adaptation. We begin by situating this new concept in the context of the rich literatures related to inter alia adaptation, vulnerability, and resilience. We argue that a proper characterization of challenges to adaptation requires a rich, exploration of the concept, which goes beyond mere description. This has a number of implications for the operationalization of the concept in the basic and extended versions of the SSPs. First, the elements comprising challenges to adaptation must include a wide range of socioeconomic and even some (non-climatic) biophysical factors. Second, careful consideration must be given to differences in these factors across scales, as well as cross-scale interactions. Third, any representation of the concept will require both quantitative and qualitative elements. The scenario framework offers the opportunity for the SSPs and full scenarios to be of greater value than has been the case in past exercises to both Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) researchers, but this will require a renegotiation of the traditional, primarily unidirectional relationship between the two communities

Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

In many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and ranking of adaptation options based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgement, and presents some estimates of incremental costs and benefits. The qualitative assessment focuses on ranking and prioritisation of adaptation options. Options are selected and identified and discussed by stakeholders on the basis of a sectoral approach, and assessed with respect to their importance, urgency and other characteristics by experts. The preliminary quantitative assessment identifies incremental costs and benefits of adaptation options. Priority ranking based on a weighted sum of criteria reveals that in the Netherlands integrated nature and water management and risk based policies rank high, followed by policies aiming at 'climate proof' housing and infrastructure

Perceived stressors of climate vulnerability across scales in the Savannah zone of Ghana: a participatory approach

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 °C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information

Combined mRNA expression levels of members of the urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA) system correlate with disease-associated survival of soft-tissue sarcoma patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Members of the urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) system are up-regulated in various solid malignant tumors. High antigen levels of uPA, its inhibitor PAI-1 and its receptor uPAR have recently been shown to be associated with poor prognosis in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) patients. However, the mRNA expression of uPA system components has not yet been comprehensively investigated in STS patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The mRNA expression level of uPA, PAI-1, uPAR and an uPAR splice variant, uPAR-del4/5, was analyzed in tumor tissue from 78 STS patients by quantitative PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Elevated mRNA expression levels of PAI-1 and uPAR-del4/5 were significantly associated with clinical parameters such as histological subtype (<it>P </it>= 0.037 and <it>P </it>< 0.001, respectively) and higher tumor grade (<it>P </it>= 0.017 and <it>P </it>= 0.003, respectively). In addition, high uPAR-del4/5 mRNA values were significantly related to higher tumor stage of STS patients (<it>P </it>= 0.031). On the other hand, mRNA expression of uPA system components was not significantly associated with patients' survival. However, in STS patients with complete tumor resection (R0), high PAI-1 and uPAR-del4/5 mRNA levels were associated with a distinctly increased risk of tumor-related death (RR = 6.55, <it>P </it>= 0.054 and RR = 6.00, <it>P </it>= 0.088, respectively). Strikingly, R0 patients with both high PAI-1 and uPAR-del4/5 mRNA expression levels showed a significant, 19-fold increased risk of tumor-related death (<it>P </it>= 0.044) compared to the low expression group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results suggest that PAI-1 and uPAR-del4/5 mRNA levels may add prognostic information in STS patients with R0 status and distinguish a subgroup of R0 patients with low PAI-1 and/or low uPAR-del4/5 values who have a better outcome compared to patients with high marker levels.</p