How Tight is Too Tight? A Look at Welfare Implications of Distortionary Policies in Uzbekistan

Since independence in 1991, Uzbekistan has pursued a gradual approach to the transition from planned to market economy. This approach relied heavily on trade controls, directed credit, and large public investments. In addition, a number of financial sector measures were instituted that distorted resource allocation and increased transaction costs. As a result, while possibly preventing the contraction of output in the early 1990s, these policies led to disappointing economic outcomes and social conditions later on. The paper reviews the underlying distortions and presents survey-based evidence to support their existence and their detrimental impact on economic activity. Looking forward, the paper - using a representative agent framework to model existing financial sector distortions - offers some guidance regarding the likely implications of eliminating these distortions on key aggregate variables. It suggests that the elimination of these distortions will be welfare enhancing and will lead to higher levels of investment and capital stock.financial sector distortions, transition, Uzbekistan

Mutations causing medullary cystic kidney disease type 1 lie in a large VNTR in MUC1 missed by massively parallel sequencing

Although genetic lesions responsible for some mendelian disorders can be rapidly discovered through massively parallel sequencing of whole genomes or exomes, not all diseases readily yield to such efforts. We describe the illustrative case of the simple mendelian disorder medullary cystic kidney disease type 1 (MCKD1), mapped more than a decade ago to a 2-Mb region on chromosome 1. Ultimately, only by cloning, capillary sequencing and de novo assembly did we find that each of six families with MCKD1 harbors an equivalent but apparently independently arising mutation in sequence markedly under-represented in massively parallel sequencing data: the insertion of a single cytosine in one copy (but a different copy in each family) of the repeat unit comprising the extremely long (~1.5–5 kb), GC-rich (>80%) coding variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) sequence in the MUC1 gene encoding mucin 1. These results provide a cautionary tale about the challenges in identifying the genes responsible for mendelian, let alone more complex, disorders through massively parallel sequencing.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Intramural Research Program)National Human Genome Research Institute (U.S.)Charles University (program UNCE 204011)Charles University (program PRVOUK-P24/LF1/3)Czech Republic. Ministry of Education, Youth, and Sports (grant NT13116-4/2012)Czech Republic. Ministry of Health (grant NT13116-4/2012)Czech Republic. Ministry of Health (grant LH12015)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Harvard Digestive Diseases Center, grant DK34854

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

How tight is too tight? A look at welfare implications of distortionary policies in Uzbekistan

Since independence in 1991, Uzbekistan has pursued a gradual approach to the transition from planned to market economy. This approach relied heavily on trade controls, directed credit, and large public investments. In addition, a number of financial sector measures were instituted that distorted resource allocation and increased transaction costs. As a result, while possibly preventing the contraction of output in the early 1990s, these policies led to disappointing economic outcomes and social conditions later on. The paper reviews the underlying distortions and presents survey-based evidence to support their existence and their detrimental impact on economic activity. Looking forward, the paper - using a representative agent framework to model existing financial sector distortions - offers some guidance regarding the likely implications of eliminating these distortions on key aggregate variables. It suggests that the elimination of these distortions will be welfare enhancing and will lead to higher levels of investment and capital stock

How Tight is too Tight? a Look At Welfare Implications of Distortionary Policies in Uzbekistan

Since independence in 1991, Uzbekistan has pursued a gradual approach to the transition from planned to market economy. This approach relied heavily on trade controls, directed credit, and large public investments. A number of financial sector measures were also instituted that distorted resource allocation and increased transaction costs. As a result, while possibly preventing the contraction of output in the early 1990s, these policies led to disappointing economic outcomes and social conditions. The paper reviews the underlying distortions and presents survey-based evidence to support their existence and their detrimental impact on economic activity. Looking forward, the paper-using a representative agent framework to model existing financial sector distortions-offers some guidance regarding the likely implications of eliminating the observed distortions on key aggregate variables. It suggests that the elimination of these distortions will enhance welfare and lead to increased investment and capital stock.Centrally planned economies;Economic models;Transition economies;foreign exchange, banking, inflation, banking sector, bank accounts, black market, money supply, bank account, banking system, bank deposits, macroeconomic stability, foreign exchange market, foreign currency, collection service, rate of inflation, real rate of interest, transaction cost, bank money, inflation dynamics, monetary economics, bank customers, banking services, price inflation, bank runs, central banking, interbank market, monetary policy, gdp deflator, real interest rate, bankers, high interest rates, inflationary pressures, money growth, bank policy, state enterprise

What Can Low-Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting?

Inflation targeting (IT) is a relatively new monetary policy framework for low-income countries (LICs). The limited number of LICs with an IT framework and the short time that has elapsed since the adoption of this framework explains why there are no previous empirical studies on the performance of IT in LICs. This paper has made a first attempt at filling this gap. It finds that inflation targeting appears to be associated with lower inflation and inflation volatility. At the same time, there is no robust evidence of an adverse impact on output. This may explain the appeal of IT for many LICs, where building credibility of monetary policy is difficult and minimizing output costs of reducing inflation is imperative for social and political reasons.Monetary policy;Developed countries;Emerging markets;Inflation targeting;Low-income developing countries;inflation, central bank, average inflation, high inflation, monetary fund, inflation rates, macroeconomic performance, inflation target, effect of inflation, monetary transmission, effects of inflation, inflation rate, price stability, monetary transmission mechanism, inflation targeting framework, lower inflation, inflation-targeting, inflation targeting regime, low inflation, monetary economics, monetary regimes, monetary targets, inflation performance, annual inflation, monetary policy framework, inflation objective, monetary aggregates, monetary authority, european monetary union, independent monetary policy, monetary union, national bank, monetary policy decisions, monetary aggregate, foreign exchange, inflation dynamics, monetary frameworks, monetary policy transmission mechanism, reduction in inflation, long-term interest rates, rates of inflation, inflation forecasts, price level, loose monetary policy, monetary anchor, control of inflation, high inflation rate, actual inflation, monetary policy instruments, monetary framework, inflation growth, monetary policies, rising inflation, monetary policy regime, fall in inflation, expansionary monetary policy, real interest rates, inflationary pressures, reserve requirements, monetary regime, acceleration in inflation, monetary authorities, monetary policy implementation, reduction of inflation, percent inflation, monetary programs

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants