Presenting the case for the application of multi-criteria analysis to mega transport infrastructure project appraisal

The paper commences with an overview of mega transport infrastructure decision-making as it relates to the megaproject development cycle and challenges of sustainable development, which are increasingly redefining the criterion for the evaluation of project success. The body of the paper presents a brief critique of various appraisal applications to mega transport infrastructure projects, including: Social Cost Benefit Analysis; Cost Effectiveness Analysis; Goal Achievement Matrix Methods and the Planning Balance Sheet, highlighting the merits and demerits of the outlined approaches. Here particular reference is made to the power of context on decision-making and other lessons from OMEGA Centre research. These include, most importantly, the treatment of risk, uncertainty and complexity of developments outside of the project and the challenges of meeting multiple stakeholder aspirations/needs thereby building up the case for the introduction and use of multi-criteria analysis and policy-led multi-criteria analysis to the appraisal of Mega Transport Projects

Application of policy-led multi-criteria analysis to the appraisal of the Northern Line Extension, London

This paper seeks to both illustrate and act as a proof of concept of how a policy-led multi-criteria analysis framework and its attendant process of the type introduced in the second paper, ‘Theory and Background of Multi-Criteria Analysis: Toward a policy-led approach for mega transport project infrastructure appraisal’, can be applied to the appraisal of a mega transport project in the form of the Northern Line Extension in London. It is offered with a view to help better identify the distribution of the projects costs and benefits and shed greater light on the possible ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ over space and time, and under given scenarios. Drawing from an extensive array of public domain literature the paper sets out both the policy and planning contexts for the project plus the business case that led to a decision by UK Treasury to guarantee a £1 billion loan to Transport for London for the construction of the Northern Line's extension. The paper looks at the scale and nature of the megaproject's features, particularly its line-haul and related real estate developments, especially those in the assigned development opportunity area. The text presents the policy, planning, legislative and regulative dimensions of the project likely to define its revenue generation prospects and environmental and social impacts, with special attention paid to those project outcomes affecting key stakeholders over time and space. The paper also seeks to explain the mechanics of how to employ a policy-led multi-criteria framework together with its associated processes within which stakeholder policies and agendas can be mapped and common/divergent interests identified. This is done with a view to ultimately facilitate stakeholder negotiation decision-making trade-offs in given scenarios under the policy guidance of the Greater London Authority with the support of the Treasury of the UK Government

Theory and Background of Multi-Criteria Analysis: Toward a policy-led approach for mega transport project infrastructure appraisal

The aims of this paper are twofold. Firstly, to present a review and critical analysis of the varying forms and functions of Multi-Criteria Analysis presented in the literature, and secondly, drawing from this, to introduce methods and processes by which policy leadership can be introduced into such processes for the appraisal of large-scale transport infrastructure projects to form a policy-led multi-criteria analysis. Following the discussion in the first paper of this Special Issue, ‘Presenting the Case for the Application of Multi-Criteria Analysis to Mega Transport Project Infrastructure Appraisal’, this contribution commences by outlining further the generic features and challenges of multi-criteria analysis approaches to project appraisal whilst emphasizing the difference among various frameworks and attendant processes for such approaches. It also highlights the important role/value of the multi-criteria mapping of stakeholder policies and agendas affecting project decision-making as a means of defining and scoping the boundaries of the project exercise under study and the trade-off decision-spaces for stakeholder dialogues and negotiations in their search to arrive at mutually agreed actions and outcomes. The paper discusses how multi-criteria analysis frameworks can be tailor-designed for particular agencies and stakeholders developed around problems, challenges and issues. This is done in the acknowledgement that such exercises, especially when applied to mega infrastructure project appraisal, typically attract a multiple-institutional response and where ultimately an institutional leader (or partnership of stakeholders) exists/emerges that impose its/their priorities on others. Alternatively, the approach can be tailor-made for specific institutions with its imbedded hierarchy of policies and priorities that frame the stakeholder decision space within which other parties can participate and trade off interests. The first part of the paper highlights the important role of scenarios of policy-making contexts and policy leadership indicating the new risks, uncertainties and opportunities these may offer in multi-criteria analysis exercises, indicating that some/many past processes have been conducted outside of any real reference to such matters. In so doing, such applications have them silently and implicitly adopt scenarios and policy assumptions that are not transparent frequently reflecting, it is alleged, ‘business as usual’ circumstances in contexts when the signs are very much that these trends will not/cannot prevail. The authors contend that without explicit policy leadership there is a danger that certain institutional stakeholder priorities will be imposed over others by the most powerful without adequate dialogue. Understanding that this matters a great deal in contexts when project stakeholder powers shifts occur is very significant. Examples of such circumstances are when national governments become, less or more powerful and economically affluent, when relative legislative and regulation powers become less or more binding and powerful, and when a major private sector investor upon which a project depends goes bankrupt. The second half of the paper builds on these observations to offer a generic multi-criteria analysis framework and attendant processes that imbed policy leadership firmly within multi-stakeholder decision-making (termed Policy-led Multi-criteria Analysis). The framework developed is to be applied to mega transport projects via the use of suitable appraisal criteria in the pursuit of sustainable development goals, which seek to address both quantitative and qualitative dimensions and concerns of multiple stakeholders, with particular emphasis on the processes required to identify and incorporate suitable policy leadership, including feedback between appraisal and policy

The structure of a resuscitation-promoting factor domain from Mycobacterium tuberculosis shows homology to lysozymes

Resuscitation-promoting factor (RPF) proteins reactivate stationary-phase cultures of (G+C)-rich Gram-positive bacteria including the causative agent of tuberculosis, Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We report the solution structure of the RPF domain from M. tuberculosis Rv1009 (RpfB) solved by heteronuclear multidimensional NMR. Structural homology with various glycoside hydrolases suggested that RpfB cleaved oligosaccharides. Biochemical studies indicate that a conserved active site glutamate is important for resuscitation activity. These data, as well as the presence of a clear binding pocket for a large molecule, indicate that oligosaccharide cleavage is probably the signal for revival from dormancy

Complexity is costly: A meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting

Short-term forecasts based on time series of counts or survey data are widely used in population biology to provide advice concerning the management, harvest and conservation of natural populations. A common approach to produce these forecasts uses time-series models, of different types, fit to time series of counts. Similar time-series models are used in many other disciplines, however relative to the data available in these other disciplines, population data are often unusually short and noisy and models that perform well for data from other disciplines may not be appropriate for population data. In order to study the performance of time-series forecasting models for natural animal population data, we assembled 2379 time series of vertebrate population indices from actual surveys. Our data were comprised of three vastly different types: highly variable (marine fish productivity), strongly cyclic (adult salmon counts), and small variance but long-memory (bird and mammal counts). We tested the predictive performance of 49 different forecasting models grouped into three broad classes: autoregressive time-series models, non-linear regression-type models and non-parametric time-series models. Low-dimensional parametric autoregressive models gave the most accurate forecasts across a wide range of taxa; the most accurate model was one that simply treated the most recent observation as the forecast. More complex parametric and non-parametric models performed worse, except when applied to highly cyclic species. Across taxa, certain life history characteristics were correlated with lower forecast error; specifically, we found that better forecasts were correlated with attributes of slow growing species: large maximum age and size for fishes and high trophic level for birds. © 2014 Nordic Society Oikos

One size does not fit all - stroke survivor's views on group self-management interventions

INTRODUCTION: Stroke is the main cause of complex disability in the UK. Many stroke survivors feel abandoned when rehabilitation ends and more than half are left with long-term unmet needs. There is now emerging interest in whether group self-management programs (SMP) specifically for stroke survivors could help. However, more work is required to understand the acceptability of group SMPs to stroke survivors and the factors of concern that could impact efficacy. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore stroke survivor's views on (1) possible benefits of a group SMP, (2) possible challenges of a group SMP, and (3) when/where to implement a SMP in an individual's stroke journey. METHOD: Fourteen stroke survivors took part in semi-structured interviews, which were analyzed using an inductive thematic approach. RESULTS: Three main themes were identified in the data: (1) a space to share support, (2) it is not a one size fits all problem, and (3) how is it all going to happen? CONCLUSION: A varied group of stroke survivors can provide valuable insight and ideas about how group SMP's should be constructed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first patient engagement study that explores group SMPs for stroke. In future work, researchers may find it helpful to consider the findings from this study to inform the design of group SMPs. Implications for Rehabilitation There is interest in whether unmet needs after stroke could be addressed through a group self-management program (SMP). Stroke survivors can provide valuable insight and ideas about how group SMPs should be constructed. Group SMPs should carefully consider: how to create a safe space in which stroke survivors feel comfortable, the impact of the facilitators, tailoring the group to the individual, the presence of carers, and the emotional impact of a group SMP

Differential genomic imprinting regulates paracrine and autocrine roles of IGF2 in mouse adult neurogenesis.

Genomic imprinting is implicated in the control of gene dosage in neurogenic niches. Here we address the importance of Igf2 imprinting for murine adult neurogenesis in the subventricular zone (SVZ) and in the subgranular zone (SGZ) of the hippocampus in vivo. In the SVZ, paracrine IGF2 is a cerebrospinal fluid and endothelial-derived neurogenic factor requiring biallelic expression, with mutants having reduced activation of the stem cell pool and impaired olfactory bulb neurogenesis. In contrast, Igf2 is imprinted in the hippocampus acting as an autocrine factor expressed in neural stem cells (NSCs) solely from the paternal allele. Conditional mutagenesis of Igf2 in blood vessels confirms that endothelial-derived IGF2 contributes to NSC maintenance in SVZ but not in the SGZ, and that this is regulated by the biallelic expression of IGF2 in the vascular compartment. Our findings indicate that a regulatory decision to imprint or not is a functionally important mechanism of transcriptional dosage control in adult neurogenesis.This work was supported by grants from Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (SAF2012-40107), Generalitat Valenciana (Programa ACOMP2014-258) and Fundación BBVA to SRF and grants from the MRC, Wellcome Trust and EU FP7 Ingenium Training Network to AFS. AW and TRM were supported by the Association for International Cancer Research and Medical Research Council, UK.SRF was a recipient of a Herchel-Smith fellowship and currently is a Ramón y Cajal investigator. ADM is funded by a Spanish FPU fellowship program of the Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte. AR was from the Erasmus Placement Program.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms926

Injury Risk Estimation Expertise Assessing the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz

Background: Available methods for screening anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury risk are effective but limited in application as they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis. A potential efficient alternative to biomechanical screening is skilled movement analysis via visual inspection (ie, having experts estimate injury risk factors based on observations of athletes’ movements). Purpose: To develop a brief, valid psychometric assessment of ACL injury risk factor estimation skill: the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ). Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 660 individuals participated in various stages of the study, including athletes, physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, exercise science researchers/students, and members of the general public in the United States. The ACL-IQ was fully computerized and made available online (www.ACL-IQ.org). Item sampling/reduction, reliability analysis, cross-validation, and convergent/discriminant validity analysis were conducted to optimize the efficiency and validity of the assessment. Results: Psychometric optimization techniques identified a short (mean time, 2 min 24 s), robust, 5-item assessment with high reliability (test-retest: r = 0.90) and consistent discriminability (average difference of exercise science professionals vs general population: Cohen d = 1.98). Exercise science professionals and general population individuals scored 74% and 53% correct, respectively. Convergent and discriminant validity was demonstrated. Scores on the ACL-IQ were most associated with ACL knowledge and various cue utilities and were least associated with domain-general spatial/decision-making ability, personality, or other demographic variables. Overall, 23% of the total sample (40% exercise science professionals; 6% general population) performed better than or equal to the ACL nomogram. Conclusion: This study presents the results of a systematic approach to assess individual differences in ACL injury risk factor estimation skill; the assessment approach is efficient (ie, it can be completed in\3 min) and psychometrically robust. The results provide evidence that some individuals have the ability to visually estimate ACL injury risk factors more accurately than other instrument-based ACL risk estimation methods (ie, ACL nomogram). The ACL-IQ provides the foundation for assessing the efficacy of observational ACL injury risk factor assessment (ie, does simple skilled visual inspection reduce ACL injuries?). It also provides a representative task environment that can be used to increase our understanding of the perceptual-cognitive mechanisms underlying observational movement analysis and to improve injury risk assessment performance

Missed opportunities: indicators of neglect - what is ignored, why, and what can be done?

This report helps children’s social care practitioners to spot risk factors associated with a likelihood of actual harm or future harm to very young children