Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960

BACKGROUND: Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime

Quantification of the effect of mammographic screening on fatal breast cancers: The Florence Programme 1990–96

Breast cancer cases diagnosed in women aged 50–69 since 1990 to 1996 in the City of Florence were partitioned into those who had been invited to screening prior to diagnosis and those who had not. All cases were followed up for vital status until 31 December 1999. The cumulative number of breast cancer deaths among the cases were divided by screening and invitation status, to give the rates of cancers proving fatal within a period of 8 years of observation (incidence-based mortality). We used the incidence-based mortality rates for two periods (1985–86, 1990–96), pre and during screening. The incidence-based mortality ratio comparing 1990–96 and 1985–86 was 0.50 (95% CI : 0.38–0.66), a significant 50% reduction. For noninvited women, compared to 1985-86, there was a 41% significant mortality reduction (RR=0.59, 95% CI : 0.42–0.82). The comparable reduction in those invited was a significant 55% (RR=0.45, 95% CI : 0.32–0.61). The incidence ratio of rates of cancers stage II or worse was close to one when the noninvited in 1990–96 were compared with 1985–86 (RR=0.97, 95% CI : 0.78–1.21). Excluding prevalent cases, the rate of stage II+ breast cancer cases was 42% lower in Screened women compared with the noninvited (RR=0.58, 95% CI : 0.45–0.74). This study confirmed that new treatments and the first rounds of the screening programme contributed to reducing mortality from breast cancer

Key Concepts for Estimating the Burden of Surgical Conditions and the Unmet Need for Surgical Care

Background: Surgical care is emerging as a crucial issue in global public health. Methodology is needed to assess the impact of surgical care from a public health perspective. Methods: A consensus opinion of a group of surgeons, anesthesiologists, and public health experts was established regarding the methodology for estimating the burden of surgical conditions and the unmet need for surgical care. Results: For purposes of analysis, we define surgical conditions as any disease state requiring the expertise of a surgically trained provider. Abnormalities resulting from a surgical condition or its treatment are termed surgical sequelae. Surgical care is defined as any measure that reduces the rates of physical disability or premature death associated with a surgical condition. To measure the burden of surgical conditions and unmet need for surgical care we propose using cumulative disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) curves generated from age-specific population-based data. This conceptual framework is based on the premise that surgically associated disability and death is determined by the incidence of surgical conditions and the quantity and quality of surgical care. The burden of surgical conditions is defined as the total disability and premature deaths that would occur in a population should there be no surgical care; the unmet need for surgical care is defined as the potentially treatable disability and premature deaths due to surgical conditions. Burden of surgical conditions should be expressed as DALYs and unmet need as potential DALYs avertable. Conclusions: Methodology is described for estimating the burden of surgical conditions and unmet need for surgical care. Using this approach it will be feasible to estimate the global burden of surgical conditions and help clarify where surgery fits among other global health priorities. These methods need to be validated using population-based data

FRA-1 protein overexpression is a feature of hyperplastic and neoplastic breast disorders

BACKGROUND: Fos-related antigen 1 (FRA-1) is an immediate early gene encoding a member of AP-1 family of transcription factors involved in cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis, and other biological processes. fra-1 gene overexpression has an important role in the process of cellular transformation, and our previous studies suggest FRA-1 protein detection as a useful tool for the diagnosis of thyroid neoplasias. Here we investigate the expression of the FRA-1 protein in benign and malignant breast tissues by immunohistochemistry, Western blot, RT-PCR and qPCR analysis, to evaluate its possible help in the diagnosis and prognosis of breast neoplastic diseases. METHODS: We investigate the expression of the FRA-1 protein in 70 breast carcinomas and 30 benign breast diseases by immunohistochemistry, Western blot, RT-PCR and qPCR analysis. RESULTS: FRA-1 protein was present in all of the carcinoma samples with an intense staining in the nucleus. Positive staining was also found in most of fibroadenomas, but in this case the staining was present both in the nucleus and cytoplasm, and the number of positive cells was lower than in carcinomas. Similar results were obtained from the analysis of breast hyperplasias, with no differences in FRA-1 expression level between typical and atypical breast lesions; however the FRA-1 protein localization is mainly nuclear in the atypical hyperplasias. In situ breast carcinomas showed a pattern of FRA-1 protein expression very similar to that observed in atypical hyperplasias. Conversely, no FRA-1 protein was detectable in 6 normal breast tissue samples used as controls. RT-PCR and qPCR analysis confirmed these results. Similar results were obtained analysing FRA-1 expression in fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) samples. CONCLUSION: The data shown here suggest that FRA-1 expression, including its intracellular localization, may be considered a useful marker for hyperplastic and neoplastic proliferative breast disorders

An assessment of existing models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation in a screening program in Spain

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the calibration and discriminatory power of three predictive models of breast cancer risk. Methods: We included 13,760 women who were first-time participants in the Sabadell-Cerdanyola Breast Cancer Screening Program, in Catalonia, Spain. Projections of risk were obtained at three and five years for invasive cancer using the Gail, Chen and Barlow models. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Catalan registries. The calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Harrell’s C statistic. Results: The Gail and Chen models showed good calibration while the Barlow model overestimated the number of cases: the ratio between estimated and observed values at 5 years ranged from 0.86 to 1.55 for the first two models and from 1.82 to 3.44 for the Barlow model. The 5-year projection for the Chen and Barlow models had the highest discrimination, with an AUC around 0.58. The Harrell’s C statistic showed very similar values in the 5-year projection for each of the models. Although they passed the calibration test, the Gail and Chen models overestimated the number of cases in some breast density categories. Conclusions: These models cannot be used as a measure of individual risk in early detection programs to customize screening strategies. The inclusion of longitudinal measures of breast density or other risk factors in joint models of survival and longitudinal data may be a step towards personalized early detection of BC.This study was funded by grant PS09/01340 and The Spanish Network on Chronic Diseases REDISSEC (RD12/0001/0007) from the Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria) of the Spanish Ministry of Health

Breast Cancer in Hong Kong, Southern China: The First Population-Based Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics, Stage-Specific, Cancer-Specific, and Disease-Free Survival in Breast Cancer Patients: 1997–2001

Background: Cancer registries have been set up worldwide to provide information for cancer health planning. There are known variations in breast cancer incidence and mortality worldwide. However, breast cancer incidence, pathological characteristics, and survival data is still underreported in Asian countries. This is the first comprehensive population-based breast cancer study performed using population database of the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Methods: A retrospective review of medical records of 8,961 subjects who were diagnosed with breast cancer between January 1, 1997 to December 31, 2001 and followed up to December 31, 2007. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyze the epidemiological and clinical data. Estimates of overall, disease-free, and cancer-specific survival at 5 years were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and stage-specific relative survival rates were calculated. Results: A total of 7,630 breast cancer patients' medical records and dataset were available during this period, and 7,449 subjects were eligible for the final analysis. Median follow-up was 84 months. A total of 47.4% were diagnosed with breast cancer at age 49 years and younger;22.2%, 46.9%, 10.8%, and 4.1% presented at stages I, II, III, and IV, respectively. A total of 53.5% had ER-positive cancer, and 20.3% had HER2-positive cancers;13.4% had triplenegative cancers. The relative, cancer-specific, and diseasefree survival rates at 5 years were 84%, 85.2%, and 81.2%, respectively. Discussion. We performed the first comprehensive population-based breast cancer epidemiology study in Southern China using the Hong Kong Cancer Registry database. This provides a baseline study cohort for comparative studies with other Asian countries and Chinese who have migrated to the West. © The Author(s) 2011. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com.published_or_final_versionSpringer Open Choice, 21 Feb 201

Contemporary accuracy of death certificates for coding prostate cancer as a cause of death : Is reliance on death certification good enough? A comparison with blinded review by an independent cause of death evaluation committee

BACKGROUND: Accurate cause of death assignment is crucial for prostate cancer epidemiology and trials reporting prostate cancer-specific mortality outcomes. METHODS: We compared death certificate information with independent cause of death evaluation by an expert committee within a prostate cancer trial (2002-2015). RESULTS: Of 1236 deaths assessed, expert committee evaluation attributed 523 (42%) to prostate cancer, agreeing with death certificate cause of death in 1134 cases (92%, 95% CI: 90%, 93%). The sensitivity of death certificates in identifying prostate cancer deaths as classified by the committee was 91% (95% CI: 89%, 94%); specificity was 92% (95% CI: 90%, 94%). Sensitivity and specificity were lower where death occurred within 1 year of diagnosis, and where there was another primary cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: UK death certificates accurately identify cause of death in men with prostate cancer, supporting their use in routine statistics. Possible differential misattribution by trial arm supports independent evaluation in randomised trials

Assessing the impact of prescribed medicines on health outcomes

This paper reviews methods that can be used to assess the impact of medicine use on population health outcomes. In the absence of a gold standard, we argue that a convergence of evidence from different types of studies using multiple methods of independent imperfection provides the best bases for attributing improvements in health outcomes to the use of medicines. The major requirements are: good evidence that a safe and effective medicine is being appropriately prescribed; covariation between medicine use and improved health outcomes; and being able to discount alternative explanations of the covariation (via covariate adjustment, propensity analyses and sensitivity analyses), so that medicine use is the most plausible explanation of the improved health outcomes. The strongest possible evidence would be provided by the coherence of the following types of evidence: (1) individual linked data showing that patients are prescribed the medicine, there are reasonable levels of patient compliance, and there is a relationship between medicine use and health improvements that is not explained by other factors; (2) ecological evidence of improvements in these health outcomes in the population in which the medicine is used. Confidence in these inferences would be increased by: the replication of these results in comparable countries and consistent trends in population vital statistics in countries that have introduced the medicine; and epidemiological modelling indicating that changes observed in population health outcomes are plausible given the epidemiology of the condition being treated

Rapid automatic segmentation of abnormal tissue in late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance images for improved management of long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart rhythm disorder. In order for late Gd enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance (LGE CMR) to ameliorate the AF management, the ready availability of the accurate enhancement segmentation is required. However, the computer-aided segmentation of enhancement in LGE CMR of AF is still an open question. Additionally, the number of centres that have reported successful application of LGE CMR to guide clinical AF strategies remains low, while the debate on LGE CMR’s diagnostic ability for AF still holds. The aim of this study is to propose a method that reliably distinguishes enhanced (abnormal) from non-enhanced (healthy) tissue within the left atrial wall of (pre-ablation and 3 months post-ablation) LGE CMR data-sets from long-standing persistent AF patients studied at our centre. Methods: Enhancement segmentation was achieved by employing thresholds benchmarked against the statistics of the whole left atrial blood-pool (LABP). The test-set cross-validation mechanism was applied to determine the input feature representation and algorithm that best predict enhancement threshold levels. Results: Global normalized intensity threshold levels T PRE = 1 1/4 and T POST = 1 5/8 were found to segment enhancement in data-sets acquired pre-ablation and at 3 months post-ablation, respectively. The segmentation results were corroborated by using visual inspection of LGE CMR brightness levels and one endocardial bipolar voltage map. The measured extent of pre-ablation fibrosis fell within the normal range for the specific arrhythmia phenotype. 3D volume renderings of segmented post-ablation enhancement emulated the expected ablation lesion patterns. By comparing our technique with other related approaches that proposed different threshold levels (although they also relied on reference regions from within the LABP) for segmenting enhancement in LGE CMR data-sets of AF patients, we illustrated that the cut-off levels employed by other centres may not be usable for clinical studies performed in our centre. Conclusions: The proposed technique has great potential for successful employment in the AF management within our centre. It provides a highly desirable validation of the LGE CMR technique for AF studies. Inter-centre differences in the CMR acquisition protocol and image analysis strategy inevitably impede the selection of a universally optimal algorithm for segmentation of enhancement in AF studies