Maximal growth rate of the ascending phase of a sunspot cycle for predicting its amplitude

Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows a significant correlation. Validation of predictions for cycles 1-24 shows high correlations between the true and predicted cycle amplitudes reaching r = 0.93 for the total sunspot numbers. The lead time of the predictions varies from 2 to 49 months, with a mean value of 21 months. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the sum of maximal growth rate indicators determined separately for the north and the south hemispheric sunspot numbers provides more accurate predictions than that using total sunspot numbers. The advantages reach 27% and 11% on average in terms of rms and correlation coefficient, respectively. The superior performance is also confirmed with hemispheric sunspot areas with respect to total sunspot areas. The maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a solar cycle serves as a reliable precursor of the subsequent cycle amplitude. Furthermore, our findings provide a strong foundation for supporting regular monitoring, recording, and predictions of solar activity with hemispheric sunspot data, which capture the asymmetric behaviour of the solar activity and solar magnetic field and enhance solar cycle prediction methods.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomy & Astrophysic

CME-CME Interactions as Sources of CME Geoeffectiveness : The Formation of the Complex Ejecta and Intense Geomagnetic Storm in 2017 Early September

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst(min)=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its B-z until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the B-z amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum B-z amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).Peer reviewe

CME-HSS Interaction and Characteristics Tracked from Sun to Earth

In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011, near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 R⊙ up to 3 R⊙. Over that distance range, the CME undergoes a strong north-eastward deflection of at least 30∘ due to the open magnetic field configuration of the CH. We perform a comprehensive analysis for the CME–HSS event using multi-viewpoint data (from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatories, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory), and combined modeling efforts (nonlinear force-free field modeling, Graduated Cylindrical Shell CME modeling, and the Forecasting a CME’s Altered Trajectory – ForeCAT model). We aim at better understanding its early evolution and interaction process as well as its interplanetary propagation and related in situ signatures, and finally the resulting impact on the Earth’s magnetosphere

The unusual widespread solar energetic particle event on 2013 August 19 Solar origin and particle longitudinal distribution

Context: Late on 2013 August 19, STEREO-A, STEREO-B, MESSENGER, Mars Odyssey, and the L1 spacecraft, spanning a longitudinal range of 222 degrees in the ecliptic plane, observed an energetic particle flux increase. The widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event was associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) that came from a region located near the far-side central meridian from Earth's perspective. The CME erupted in two stages, and was accompanied by a late M-class flare observed as a post-eruptive arcade, persisting low-frequency (interplanetary) type II and groups of shock-accelerated type III radio bursts, all of them making this SEP event unusual.Aims: There are two main objectives of this study, disentangling the reasons for the different intensity-time profiles observed by the spacecraft, especially at MESSENGER and STEREO-A locations, longitudinally separated by only 15 degrees, and unravelling the single solar source related with the widespread SEP event.Methods: The analysis of in situ data, such as particle fluxes, anisotropies and timing, and plasma and magnetic field data, is compared with the remote-sensing observations. A spheroid model is applied for the CME-driven shock reconstruction and the ENLIL model is used to characterize the heliospheric conditions, including the evolution of the magnetic connectivity to the shock.Results: The solar source associated with the widespread SEP event is the shock driven by the CME, as the flare observed as a post-eruptive arcade is too late to explain the estimated particle onset. The different intensity-time profiles observed by STEREO-A, located at 0.97 au, and MESSENGER, at 0.33 au, can be interpreted as enhanced particle scattering beyond Mercury's orbit. The longitudinal extent of the shock does not explain by itself the wide spread of particles in the heliosphere. The particle increase observed at L1 may be attributed to cross-field diffusion transport, and this is also the case for STEREO-B, at least until the spacecraft is eventually magnetically connected to the shock when it reaches similar to 0.6 au.</p

Radial evolution of the April 2020 stealth coronal mass ejection between 0.8 and 1 AU - Comparison of Forbush decreases at Solar Orbiter and near the Earth

Aims. We present observations of the first coronal mass ejection (CME) observed at the Solar Orbiter spacecraft on April 19, 2020, and the associated Forbush decrease (FD) measured by its High Energy Telescope (HET). This CME is a multispacecraft event also seen near Earth the next day. Methods. We highlight the capabilities of HET for observing small short-term variations of the galactic cosmic ray count rate using its single detector counters. The analytical ForbMod model is applied to the FD measurements to reproduce the Forbush decrease at both locations. Input parameters for the model are derived from both in situ and remote-sensing observations of the CME. Results. The very slow (~350 km/s) stealth CME caused a FD with an amplitude of 3 % in the low-energy cosmic ray measurements at HET and 2 % in a comparable channel of the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, as well as a 1 % decrease in neutron monitor measurements. Significant differences are observed in the expansion behavior of the CME at different locations, which may be related to influence of the following high speed solar wind stream. Under certain assumptions, ForbMod is able to reproduce the observed FDs in low-energy cosmic ray measurements from HET as well as CRaTER, but with the same input parameters, the results do not agree with the FD amplitudes at higher energies measured by neutron monitors on Earth. We study these discrepancies and provide possible explanations. Conclusions. This study highlights that the novel measurements of the Solar Orbiter can be coordinated with other spacecraft to improve our understanding of space weather in the inner heliosphere. Multi-spacecraft observations combined with data-based modeling are also essential to understand the propagation and evolution of CMEs as well as their space weather impacts

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.Peer reviewe