Bank valuation using multiples in US and Europe: an historical perspective

We investigate the performance of relative valuation for US and European banks over the period 1990- 2017. While the literature on the use of multiples is well developed, the relative valuation of financial institutions has received scant attention. We study the distribution and the main properties of each multiple’s valuation errors, assessing which multiples work best and should be preferred when valuing banks. Our results show that on average high levels of accuracy are achieved by two years forward P/E. Moreover, diluted earnings not including extraordinary items should be preferred when computing trailing earnings multiples and, interestingly, P/BV consistently outperforms P/TBV. Dividends’ multiples are not among the best performers, anyway, it is preferable to consider only common dividends when computing them. Most of the times P/Deposits and P/Revenues deliver poor performances, therefore it is advisable not to use them as main valuation approach

Spatial Patterns and Sequential Sampling Plans for Estimating Densities of Stink Bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Soybean in the North Central Region of the United States

Stink bugs are an emerging threat to soybean (Fabales: Fabaceae) in the North Central Region of the United States. Consequently, region-specific scouting recommendations for stink bugs are needed. The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial pattern and to develop sampling plans to estimate stink bug population density in soybean fields. In 2016 and 2017, 125 fields distributed across nine states were sampled using sweep nets. Regression analyses were used to determine the effects of stink bug species [Chinavia hilaris (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and Euschistus spp. (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)], life stages (nymphs and adults), and field locations (edge and interior) on spatial pattern as represented by variance–mean relationships. Results showed that stink bugs were aggregated. Sequential sampling plans were developed for each combination of species, life stage, and location and for all the data combined. Results for required sample size showed that an average of 40–42 sample units (sets of 25 sweeps) would be necessary to achieve a precision of 0.25 for stink bug densities commonly encountered across the region. However, based on the observed geographic gradient of stink bug densities, more practical sample sizes (5–10 sample units) may be sufficient in states in the southeastern part of the region, whereas impractical sample sizes (\u3e100 sample units) may be required in the northwestern part of the region. Our findings provide research-based sampling recommendations for estimating densities of these emerging pests in soybean

Community Composition, Abundance, and Phenology of Stink Bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Soybean in the North Central Region of the United States

Stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are an increasing threat to soybean (Fabales: Fabaceae) production in the North Central Region of the United States, which accounts for 80% of the country’s total soybean production. Characterization of the stink bug community is essential for development of management programs for these pests. However, the composition of the stink bug community in the region is not well defined. This study aimed to address this gap with a 2-yr, 9-state survey. Specifically, we characterized the relative abundance, richness, and diversity of taxa in this community, and assessed phenological differences in abundance of herbivorous and predatory stink bugs. Overall, the stink bug community was dominated by Euschistus spp. (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and Chinavia hilaris (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae). Euschistus variolarius (Palisot de Beauvois) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), C. hilaris and Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) were more abundant in the northwestern, southeastern and eastern parts, respectively, of the North Central Region of the United States. Economically significant infestations of herbivorous species occurred in fields in southern parts of the region. Species richness differed across states, while diversity was the same across the region. Herbivorous and predatory species were more abundant during later soybean growth stages. Our results represent the first regional characterization of the stink bug community in soybean fields and will be fundamental for the development of state- and region-specific management programs for these pests in the North Central Region of the United States

Spatial Patterns and Sequential Sampling Plans for Estimating Densities of Stink Bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Soybean in the North Central Region of the United States

Stink bugs are an emerging threat to soybean (Fabales: Fabaceae) in the North Central Region of the United States. Consequently, region-specific scouting recommendations for stink bugs are needed. The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial pattern and to develop sampling plans to estimate stink bug population density in soybean fields. In 2016 and 2017, 125 fields distributed across nine states were sampled using sweep nets. Regression analyses were used to determine the effects of stink bug species [Chinavia hilaris (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and Euschistus spp. (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)], life stages (nymphs and adults), and field locations (edge and interior) on spatial pattern as represented by variance–mean relationships. Results showed that stink bugs were aggregated. Sequential sampling plans were developed for each combination of species, life stage, and location and for all the data combined. Results for required sample size showed that an average of 40–42 sample units (sets of 25 sweeps) would be necessary to achieve a precision of 0.25 for stink bug densities commonly encountered across the region. However, based on the observed geographic gradient of stink bug densities, more practical sample sizes (5–10 sample units) may be sufficient in states in the southeastern part of the region, whereas impractical sample sizes (\u3e100 sample units) may be required in the northwestern part of the region. Our findings provide research-based sampling recommendations for estimating densities of these emerging pests in soybean

Parasitism of Adult Pentatomidae by Tachinidae in Soybean in the North Central Region of the United StatesPheylan

Stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are agricultural pests of increasing significance in the North Central Region of the United States, posing a threat to major crops such as soybean. Biological control can reduce the need for insecticides to manage these pests, but the parasitism of stink bugs byTachinidae (Diptera) is poorly characterized in this region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the rate of parasitism of stink bugs by tachinids over 2 yr from nine states across the North Central Region. Parasitism was assessed by quantifying tachinid eggs on the integument of stink bug adults. Parasitism rates (i.e., percent of adult stink bugs with tachinid eggs) were compared across stink bug species, states, stink bug sex, and years.The mean percent parasitism of stink bugs by tachinids was about 6% across the region and did not differ among stink bug species. Mean percent parasitism was significantly higher in Missouri than in northern and western states. In addition, male stink bugs had significantly higher mean percent parasitism than females. Stink bug species commonly found in soybean in the region showed some parasitism and are therefore potentially vulnerable to oviposition by these parasitoids.This is the first study to characterize the level of parasitism of stink bugs by tachinids across the North Central Region

Presence-Absence Sampling Plans for Stink Bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in the Midwest Region of the United States

Stink bugs represent an increasing risk to soybean production in the Midwest region of the United States. The current sampling protocol for stink bugs in this region is tailored for population density estimation and thus is more relevant to research purposes. A practical decision-making framework with more efficient sampling effort for management of herbivorous stink bugs is needed. Therefore, a binomial sequential sampling plan was developed for herbivorous stink bugs in the Midwest region. A total of 146 soybean fields were sampled across 11 states using sweep nets in 2016, 2017, and 2018. The binomial sequential sampling plans were developed using combinations of five tally thresholds at two proportion infested action thresholds to identify those that provided the best sampling outcomes. Final assessment of the operating characteristic curves for each plan indicated that a tally threshold of 3 stink bugs per 25 sweeps, and proportion infested action thresholds of 0.75 and 0.95 corresponding to the action thresholds of 5 and 10 stink bugs per 25 sweeps, provided the optimal balance between highest probability of correct decisions (≥ 99%) and lowest probability of incorrect decisions (≤ 1%). In addition, the average sample size for both plans (18 and 12 sets of 25 sweeps, respectively) was lower than that for the other proposed plans. The binomial sequential sampling plan can reduce the number of sample units required to achieve a management decision, which is important because it can potentially reduce risk/cost of management for stink bugs in soybean in this region

Rumor clustering, consensus, and polarization: Dynamic social impact and self-organization of hearsay

The "bottom-up" self-organization of shared sense-making and group decision-making through rumor (unverified information statements in circulation) was investigated in two computer-mediated laboratory experiments on the effects of network clustering (i.e., structural "cliquishness"). Participants in 27 (Study 1) and 33 (Study 2) 16-person laboratory-created networks at three institutions discussed ambiguous situations (e.g., "a professor was found dead") and then chose one of four possible rumors in a judgment task (e.g., "he was killed by an angry student") to explain each situation. Static lattice, "ribbon" (street-like), "family" (connected clusters), random, and dynamic-random configurations were employed. Network clustering led to rumor clustering (emergence of homogenous pockets of rumor choices). There was also evidence for increased consensus, rumor persistence, and belief polarization. Belief polarization was amplified by rumor clustering and consensus. In addition, the extent to which "neighbors" were unified in their disagreement (versus agreement) with the participant tempered confidence increases and strongly affected the selection of rumors that "made the most sense." Results explain rumor persistence and variation, document the role of patterns of connectivity and dynamic social influence processes in unverified collective beliefs, and suggest modification of Dynamic Social Impact Theory to include belief polarization mediated by emergent "echo chambers"

Soybean aphid biotype 1 genome: Insights into the invasive biology and adaptive evolution of a major agricultural pest

International audienceThe soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a serious pest of the soybean plant, Glycine max, a major world-wide agricultural crop. We assembled a de novo genome sequence of Ap. glycines Biotype 1, from a culture established shortly after this species invaded North America. 20.4% of the Ap. glycines proteome is duplicated. These in-paralogs are enriched with Gene Ontology (GO) categories mostly related to apoptosis, a possible adaptation to plant chemistry and other environmental stressors. Approximately one-third of these genes show parallel duplication in other aphids. But Ap. gossypii, its closest related species, has the lowest number of these duplicated genes. An Illumina GoldenGate assay of 2380 SNPs was used to determine the world-wide population structure of Ap. Glycines. China and South Korean aphids are the closest to those in North America. China is the likely origin of other Asian aphid populations. The most distantly related aphids to those in North America are from Australia. The diversity of Ap. glycines in North America has decreased over time since its arrival. The genetic diversity of Ap. glycines North American population sampled shortly after its first detection in 2001 up to 2012 does not appear to correlate with geography. However, aphids collected on soybean Rag experimental varieties in Minnesota (MN), Iowa (IA), and Wisconsin (WI), closer to high density Rhamnus cathartica stands, appear to have higher capacity to colonize resistant soybean plants than aphids sampled in Ohio (OH), North Dakota (ND), and South Dakota (SD). Samples from the former states have SNP alleles with high FST values and frequencies, that overlap with genes involved in iron metabolism, a crucial metabolic pathway that may be affected by the Rag-associated soybean plant response. The Ap. glycines Biotype 1 genome will provide needed information for future analyses of mechanisms of aphid virulence and pesticide resistance as well as facilitate comparative analyses between aphids with differing natural history and host plant range