Portfolio Composition and Pension Wealth: An Econometric Study

There has been very little study of the consequences of pension wealth for the composition of household portfolios. Using individual data for 10,118 Canadian households we estimate the portfolio effect of pension wealth. Because most households do not own all of the assets which we are able to distinguish, we model asset demands as a mixed discrete-continuous portfolio choice problem. We find that whereas there is an identifiable effect of pension wealth on total private savings, the effect on portfolio choice is less significant. Moreover, within the area of portfolio composition the main effect is in terms of the particular number and combination of assets held rather than the amount of any given asset as a proportion of total wealth.

The Effective Tax Rate and the Pretax Rate of Return

This paper presents new estimates of the taxes paid on nonfinancial corporate capital, on the pretax rate of return to capital, and on the effective tax rate. The basic time series show that both the pretax rate of return and the effective tax rate have varied substantially in the past quarter century. An explicit analysis indicates that, after adjusting for different aspects of the business cycle, pretax profitability was between one and 1.5 percentage points lower in the 1970's than in the 1960's. The rate of profitability in the 1960's was also about one-half of a percentage point greater than the profitability in the 7 years of the 1950's after the Korean war. Changes in productivity growth, in inflation, in relative unit labor costs, and in other variables are all associated with changes in profitability. None of these variables, however, can explain the differences in profitability between the 1950Ts, 1960's and 1970's. Looking at broad decade averages, the effective tax rate and the pretax rate of return move in opposite directions, higher pretax profits occurring when the tax rate is high. There thus appears to have been no tendency for pretax profits to vary in a way that offsets differences in effective tax rates.

Asset Holdings and the Life Cycle

Empirical studies of the life cycle savings model have tended to rej ect the hypothesis of a "hump-shaped" pattern for the wealth-age profile. In this paper we show, using new data on net worth for 12,734 families, that there is evidence that wealth declines after retirement provided that we control for differences in permanent income and take account of sample selection bias. The estimated rates of decumulation are consistent with a life cycle model in which there is uncertainty about the date of death.

Foreign capital in a growth model

Within an endogenous growth framework, this paper empirically investigates the impact of financial capital on economic growth for a panel of 60 developing countries, through the channel of domestic capital formation. By estimating the model for different income groups, it is found that while private FDI flows exert beneficial complementarity effects on the domestic capital formation across all income-group countries, the official financial flows contribute to increasing investment in the middle income economies, but not in the low income countries. The latter appears to demonstrate that the aid-growth nexus is supported in the middle income countries, whereas the misallocation of official inflows is more likely to exist in the low income countries, suggesting that aid effectiveness remains conditional on the domestic policy environment

50 years with Down syndrome: A longitudinal study

Background: A population sample of people with Down syndrome, studied from infancy, has now been followed up at the age of 50 years. From the original sample of 54, there were 27 still in the study at the age of 50, all but four of the losses resulting from deaths. Methods: Intelligence and language skills were tested and daily living skills assessed. Memory/cognitive deterioration was examined using two test instruments. Other aspects of the people’s lives were examined via carers’ reports. Results: Scores on verbal tests showed little change. Those on a non-verbal test, on self-help skills and on both memory tests showed some decline, even when the scores of those already suffering from dementia were discounted. Conclusions: At the age of 50, those not already diagnosed with dementia showed some decline on most tests. While this may include scores of people who subsequently develop dementia, it may also reflect the normal ageing process in this population