Revisiting the 26.5°C Sea Surface Temperature Threshold for Tropical Cyclone Development

Abstract A high sea surface temperature is generally accepted to be one of the necessary ingredients for tropical cyclone development, indicative of the potential for surface heat and moisture fluxes capable of fueling a self-sustaining circulation. Although the minimum 26.5°C threshold for tropical cyclogenesis has become a mainstay in research and education, the fact that a nonnegligible fraction of storm formation events (about 5%) occur over cooler waters casts some doubt on the robustness of this estimate. Tropical cyclogenesis over subthreshold sea surface temperatures is associated with low tropopause heights, indicative of the presence of a cold trough aloft. To focus on this type of development environment, the applicability of the 26.5°C threshold is investigated for tropical transitions from baroclinic precursor disturbances in all basins between 1989 and 2013. Although the threshold performs well in the majority of cases without appreciable environmental baroclinicity, the potential for development is underestimated by up to 27% for systems undergoing tropical transition. An alternative criterion of a maximum 22.5°C difference between the tropopause-level and 850-hPa equivalent potential temperatures (defined as the coupling index) is proposed for this class of development. When combined with the standard 26.5°C sea surface temperature threshold for precursor-free environments, error rates are reduced to 3%–6% for all development types. The addition of this physically relevant representation of the deep-tropospheric state to the ingredients-based conceptual model for tropical cyclogenesis improves the representation of the important tropical transition-based subset of development events.</jats:p

Gevoeligheid van Tipstar voor de waarden van situatie-specifieke invoergegevens

Bij de evaluatie van TIPSTAR, bleek het model in een aantal gevallen lagere opbrengsten te berekenen dan gemeten was in de situaties die nagesimuleerd werden. Als mogelijke redenen die aangevoerd werden voor deze ‘onderspelling’ van TIPSTAR werden de volgende mogelijkheden genoemd: meetfouten, calibratie van TIPSTAR op een beperkt aantal proeven, variabiliteit in het veld

The Impact of Superior Labral Anterior to Posterior Lesions on Functional Status in Shoulder Instability: A Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Type IV superior labral anterior to posterior (SLAP) lesions, which are superior labral detachments associated with Bankart tears, are reported to occur in up to 25% of recurrent shoulder instability patients. However, the clinical implications of this finding are debatable. PURPOSE: To determine whether there are any functional differences between anterior instability patients with and without type IV SLAP lesions at the time of presentation and at short-term follow-up after surgical intervention. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: A prospective, multicenter database was established to follow the clinical evolution of patients with shoulder instability. Patients were diagnosed as having a type IV SLAP lesion at the time of arthroscopic Bankart surgery (SLAP+). These patients were compared with a group of patients who simply had a Bankart lesion (SLAP-). The 2 groups had their functional outcomes (Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index [WOSI]; Disability of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand [QuickDASH]; and Walch-Duplay) compared prior to surgery and 1 year postoperatively. RESULTS: A total of 103 subjects were included in the study; of these, 56 (43 men, 13 women) completed 1-year follow-up. Twenty-three subjects had a type IV SLAP tear, and most had this repaired along with their Bankart lesion. At baseline, SLAP+ subjects had inferior QuickDASH scores compared with SLAP- subjects (37.8 vs 29.0) as well as poorer pain subscores on both the WOSI and QuickDASH. At 1-year follow-up, however, there were no significant differences in any of the outcome measures. CONCLUSION: A type IV SLAP lesion can be expected in 22% of patients with recurrent shoulder instability. This finding implies that at baseline, the patient will have slightly worse functional scores related to pain. However, following surgical management of the labral pathology, these patients will have equivalent functional outcomes at short-term follow-up. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: With surgical management of the superior and anteroinferior labrum, patients with type IV SLAP lesions will do as well as those with only Bankart tears. Thus, the presence of SLAP lesions should not alter the decision to provide surgical management and should not change the prognosis for a specific patient

Sticky stuff : redefining bedform prediction in modern and ancient environments

This work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the COHBED project (NE/1027223/1). Paterson was funded by the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS).The dimensions and dynamics of subaqueous bedforms are well known for cohesionless sediments. However, the effect of physical cohesion imparted by cohesive clay within mixed sand-mud substrates has not been examined, despite its recognized influence on sediment stability. Here we present a series of controlled laboratory experiments to establish the influence of substrate clay content on subaqueous bedform dynamics within mixtures of sand and clay exposed to unidirectional flow. The results show that bedform dimensions and steepness decrease linearly with clay content, and comparison with existing predictors of bedform dimensions, established within cohesionless sediments, reveals significant over-prediction of bedform size for all but the lowermost clay contents examined. The profound effect substrate clay content has on bedform dimensions has a number of important implications for interpretation in a range of modern and ancient environments, including reduced roughness and bedform heights in estuarine systems and the often cited lack of large dune cross-sets in turbidites. The results therefore offer a step change in our understanding of bedform formation and dynamics in these, and many other, sedimentary environments.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Direct composition profiling in III-V nanostructures by cross-sectional STM

Using cross-sectional STM we have studied the local composition in III–V nanostructures such as GaAs/InGaAs quantum wells, InGaNAs/InP quantum wells and quantum dots, and InAs/GaAs self-assembled quantum dots. We are able to determine the local composition by either simply counting the constituent atoms, measuring the local lattice constant or measuring the relaxation of the cleaved surface due to the elastic field of the buried strained nanostructures

The impact of deep-sea fisheries and implementation of the UNGA Resolutions 61/105 and 64/72. Report of an international scientific workshop

The scientific workshop to review fisheries management, held in Lisbon in May 2011, brought together 22 scientists and fisheries experts from around the world to consider the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions on high seas bottom fisheries: what progress has been made and what the outstanding issues are. This report summarises the workshop conclusions, identifying examples of good practice and making recommendations in areas where it was agreed that the current management measures fall short of their target

Beyond Gross-Pitaevskii:local density vs. correlated basis approach for trapped bosons

We study the ground state of a system of Bose hard-spheres trapped in an isotropic harmonic potential to investigate the effect of the interatomic correlations and the accuracy of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation. We compare a local density approximation, based on the energy functional derived from the low density expansion of the energy of the uniform hard sphere gas, and a correlated wave function approach which explicitly introduces the correlations induced by the potential. Both higher order terms in the low density expansion, beyond Gross-Pitaevskii, and explicit dynamical correlations have effects of the order of percent when the number of trapped particles becomes similar to that attained in recent experiments.Comment: Revtex, 2 figure

Beyond Gross-Pitaevskii:local density vs. correlated basis approach for trapped bosons

We study the ground state of a system of Bose hard-spheres trapped in an isotropic harmonic potential to investigate the effect of the interatomic correlations and the accuracy of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation. We compare a local density approximation, based on the energy functional derived from the low density expansion of the energy of the uniform hard sphere gas, and a correlated wave function approach which explicitly introduces the correlations induced by the potential. Both higher order terms in the low density expansion, beyond Gross-Pitaevskii, and explicit dynamical correlations have effects of the order of percent when the number of trapped particles becomes similar to that attained in recent experiments.Comment: Revtex, 2 figure

Law, politics and the governance of English and Scottish joint-stock companies 1600-1850

This article examines the impact of law on corporate governance by means of a case study of joint-stock enterprise in England and Scotland before 1850. Based on a dataset of over 450 company constitutions together with qualitative information on governance practice, it finds little evidence to support the hypothesis that common-law regimes such as England were more supportive of economic growth than civil-law jurisdictions such as Scotland: indeed, levels of shareholder protection were slightly stronger in the civil-law zone. Other factors, such as local political institutions, played a bigger role in shaping organisational forms and business practice