1D and 2D site amplification effects at Tarcento (Friuli, NE Italy), 30years later

A temporary accelerometer network has been installed in Tarcento (Friuli, NE Italy), a small town heavily hit by the 1976-1977 Friuli earthquake sequence, as a part of an ongoing research project aimed at ground motion simulation and generation of shakemaps in the near-field of an earthquake. The network operated from October 2008 to April 2010 and consisted of three K2 accelerographs with internal Episensor, distributed over a linear array of about 1.5km length. Tarcento town had been chosen, at the end of the 1970s, as the ideal site for a pilot microzonation study, the first of this kind in Italy, in which a substantial number of field (and laboratory) tests were carried out in order to assess the mechanical properties of local alluvium deposits and their complex (3D) geometrical configuration. The data from the temporary network, illustrated herein, allow for proper verification and review of some of the quantitative predictions formulated in the 1980 study. As argued in the discussion section, we also believe that the data are apt to provide valuable information of more general interest on the complex seismic response of alluvium-filled valleys, and we show therein how the observations can be interpreted in the light of presently available parametric simulation studies and simplified criteria for handling basin amplification effect

Seismic monitoring and analysis of deep geothermal projects in St Gallen and Basel, Switzerland

Monitoring and understanding induced seismicity is critical in order to estimate and mitigate seismic risk related to numerous existing and emerging techniques for natural resource exploitation in the shallow-crust. State of the art approaches for guiding decision making, such as traffic light systems, rely heavily on data such as earthquake location and magnitude that are provided to them. In this context we document the monitoring of a deep geothermal energy project in St Gallen, Switzerland. We focus on the issues of earthquake magnitude, ground motion and macroseismic intensity which are important components of the seismic hazard associated to the project. We highlight the problems with attenuation corrections for magnitude estimation and site amplification that were observed when trying to apply practices used for monitoring regional seismicity to a small-scale monitoring network. Relying on the almost constant source-station distance for events in the geothermal ‘seismic cloud' we developed a simple procedure, calibrated using several ML > 1.3 events, which allowed the unbiased calculation of ML using only stations of the local monitoring network. The approach determines station specific ML correction terms that account for both the bias of the attenuation correction in the near field and amplification at the site. Since the smallest events (ML < −1) were only observed on a single borehole instrument, a simple relation between the amplitude at the central borehole station of the monitoring network and ML was found. When compared against magnitudes computed over the whole network this single station approach was shown to provide robust estimates (±0.17 units) for the events down to ML = −1. The relation could then be used to estimate the magnitude of even smaller events (ML < −1) only recorded on the central borehole station. Using data from almost 2700 events in Switzerland, we then recalibrated the attenuation correction, extending its range of validity from a minimum source-station distance of 20 km down to 1 km. Based on this we could determine the component of the previously derived station specific ML corrections due to local amplification. We analysed ground-motion and detailed macroseismic reports resulting from the 2013 July 20 St Gallen ML = 3.5 ± 0.1 (Mw = 3.3-3.5 ± 0.1) ‘main shock' and compared it to a similar ML = 3.4 ± 0.1 event (Mw = 3.2 ± 0.1) that occurred in 2006 at another deep geothermal project in Basel, Switzerland. Differences in ground motion amplitudes between the Basel and St Gallen events and to an extent, the associated macroseismic observations, were investigated in terms of the different source terms: Mw for long-period motions and the source-corner frequency (related to the source rupture velocity and stress-drop) for short period

Topographic amplification from recorded earthquake data and numerical simulations

With the aim of contributing to the refinement of the next generation of tools for seismic hazard analyses, we present here an attempt at including topographic amplification factors in GMPEs, thus broadening the traditional options for site effects. With a view to critically discuss and complement with new data the approach of Cauzzi et al. (2010) and Paolucci (2002), information from additional numerical models including crustal layering are taken into account. The indications obtained from the numerical simulations are cross-checked against and consolidated by analyses of the residuals of a selection of strong- and weak-motion observations on topographic reliefs in Italy and Switzerland (carefully selected via GIS) with respect to a set of largely used GMPEs

A Hybrid Empirical Green’s Function Technique for Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Seismicity: Application to the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System

A method is described for the prediction of site-specific surface ground motion due to induced earthquakes occurring in predictable and well-defined source zones. The method is based on empirical Green’s functions (EGFs), determined using micro-earthquakes at sites where seismicity is being induced (e.g., hydraulic fracturing and wastewater injection during shale oil and gas extraction, CO2 sequestration, and conventional and enhanced geothermal injection). Using the EGF approach, a ground-motion field (e.g., an intensity map) can be calculated for a potentially felt induced event originating within the seismic zone. The approach allows site- and path-specific effects to be mapped into the ground-motion field, providing a local ground-motion model that accounts for wave-propagation effects without the requirement of 3D velocity models or extensive computational resources. As a test case, the ground-motion field for the mainshock (ML = 3.4, M = 3.2) resulting from the Basel Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) was simulated using only seismicity recorded prior to the event. We focussed on peak ground velocity (PGV), as this is a measure of ground motion on which Swiss norms for vibration disturbances are based. The performance of the method was significantly better than a previously developed generic ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for induced earthquakes and showed improved performance through intrinsic inclusion of site-specific effects relative to predictions for a local GMPE. Both median motions and the site-to-site ground-motion variability were captured, leading to significantly reduced misfit relative to the generic GMPE. It was shown, however, that extrapolation beyond units of a couple of magnitude leads to significant uncertainty. The method is well suited to a real-time predictive hazard framework, for which shaking estimates are dynamically updated in light of newly recorded seismicity

New predictive equations and site amplification estimates for the next-generation Swiss ShakeMaps

We present a comprehensive scientific and technical update of the Swiss customization of United States Geological Survey ShakeMap, in use at the Swiss Seismological Service since 2007. The new Swiss ShakeMaps are based on predictive equations for peak ground-motions and response spectra derived from stochastic simulations tailored to Swiss seismicity. Using synthetics allows overcoming the difficulties posed by: (i) the paucity of strong-motion data recordings in Switzerland; (ii) the regional dependence of shear wave energy attenuation and focal depth distribution in the Swiss Alps and foreland; (iii) the depth dependence of stress parameters suggested by macroseismic and instrumental observations. In the new Swiss ShakeMaps, VS,30 is no longer used as proxy for site amplification at regional scale, and is replaced by macroseismic intensity increments for different soil classes, based on the recently revised earthquake catalogue of Switzerland (ECOS-09). The new implementation converts ground-motion levels into macroseismic intensity by means of ground-motion to intensity conversion equations based on the Italian strong-motion and intensity databanks and is therefore well constrained for intensities larger than VII. The new Swiss ShakeMaps show a satisfactory agreement with the macroseimic fields of both large historical events and recent well-recorded earthquakes of moderate magnitude. The new implementation is now fully consistent with the state-of-the-art in engineering seismology in Switzerlan

Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT

The Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3: A New Implementation Strategy for Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms

The feasibility of earthquake early warning (EEW) is now widely recognized. However, EEW systems that are in operation or under evaluation worldwide have significant variations and are usually operated independently of routine earthquake monitoring. We introduce a software that allows testing and evaluation of a well‐known EEW algorithm directly within a widely used earthquake monitoring software platform. In the long term, we envision this approach can lead to (1) an easier transition from prototype to production type EEW implementations, (2) a natural and seamless evolution from very fast EEW source parameter estimates with typically large uncertainties to more delayed but more precise estimates using more traditional analysis methods, and (3) the capability of seismic networks to evaluate the readiness of their network for EEW, and to implement EEW, without having to invest in and maintain separate, independent software systems. Using the Virtual Seismologist (VS), a popular EEW algorithm that has been tested in real time in California since 2008, we demonstrate how our approach can be realized within the widely used monitoring platform SeisComP3. Because this software suite is already in production at many seismic networks worldwide, we have been able to test the new VS implementation across a wide variety of tectonic settings and network infrastructures. Using mainly real‐time performance, we analyze over 3200 events with magnitudes between 2.0 and 6.8 and show that, for shallow crustal seismicity, 68% of the first VS magnitude estimates are within ±0.5 magnitude units of the final reported magnitude. We further demonstrate the very significant effect of data communication strategies on final alert times. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we then model the best possible alert times for optimally configured EEW systems and show that, for events within the dense parts of each of the seven test networks, effective warnings could be issued for magnitudes as small as M 5.0

Feasibility study on earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting for risk mitigation at nuclear power plants

International audienceWithin the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), a task concerns feasibility study and initial implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and timedependent seismic hazard analyses aimed at mitigating seismic risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Switzerland. This study is jointly carried out by academic institutions (the Swiss Seismological Service at ETHZ and BRGM) and in cooperation with swissnuclear, the nuclear energy section of swisselectric, an umbrella organisation for the nuclear power plants in Switzerland, which provide about 40% of the electricity needs of the country. Briefly presented in this contribution are the main investigations carried out and results obtained throughout the development of this task, with special focus on: a) evaluating the performances of the selected EEW algorithm (the Virtual Seismologist, VS) in Switzerland and California, in terms of correct detections, false alerts, and missed events; b) embedding the VS algorithm into the earthquake monitoring software SeisComP3 (www.seiscomp3.org) routinely used by the Swiss Seismological Service for earthquake detections and locations; c) customising the User Display (a graphical interface originally developed at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) during Phase II of the ShakeAlert project in California) for optimised use at Swiss NPPs; d) presenting synthetic time-dependent hazard scenarios for Switzerland and e) attempting to associate the above input data with potential mitigation actions and related cost and benefits for NPPs in Switzerland

A Simplified Classification of the Relative Tsunami Potential in Swiss Perialpine Lakes Caused by Subaqueous and Subaerial Mass-Movements

Historical reports and recent studies have shown that tsunamis can also occur in lakes where they may cause large damages and casualties. Among the historical reports are many tsunamis in Swiss lakes that have been triggered both by subaerial and subaqueous mass movements (SAEMM and SAQMM). In this study, we present a simplified classification of lakes with respect to their relative tsunami potential. The classification uses basic topographic, bathymetric, and seismologic input parameters to assess the relative tsunami potential on the 28 Swiss alpine and perialpine lakes with a surface area >1km2. The investigated lakes are located in the three main regions “Alps,” “Swiss Plateau,” and “Jura Mountains.” The input parameters are normalized by their range and a k-means algorithm is used to classify the lakes according to their main expected tsunami source. Results indicate that lakes located within the Alps show generally a higher potential for SAEMM and SAQMM, due to the often steep surrounding rock-walls, and the fjord-type topography of the lake basins with a high amount of lateral slopes with inclinations favoring instabilities. In contrast, the missing steep walls surrounding lakeshores of the “Swiss Plateau” and “Jura Mountains” lakes result in a lower potential for SAEMM but favor inundation caused by potential tsunamis in these lakes. The results of this study may serve as a starting point for more detailed investigations, considering field data

Coordinated and Interoperable Seismological Data and Product Services in Europe: the EPOS Thematic Core Service for Seismology

In this article we describe EPOS Seismology, the Thematic Core Service consortium for the seismology domain within the European Plate Observing System infrastructure. EPOS Seismology was developed alongside the build-up of EPOS during the last decade, in close collaboration between the existing pan-European seismological initiatives ORFEUS (Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology), EMSC (Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center) and EFEHR (European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk) and their respective communities. It provides on one hand a governance framework that allows a well-coordinated interaction of the seismological community services with EPOS and its bodies, and on the other hand it strengthens the coordination among the already existing seismological initiatives with regard to data, products and service provisioning and further development. Within the EPOS Delivery Framework, ORFEUS, EMSC and EFEHR provide a wide range of services that allow open access to a vast amount of seismological data and products, following and implementing the FAIR principles and supporting open science. Services include access to raw seismic waveforms of thousands of stations together with relevant station and data quality information, parametric earthquake information of recent and historical earthquakes together with advanced event-specific products like moment tensors or source models and further ancillary services, and comprehensive seismic hazard and risk information, covering latest European scale models and their underlying data. The services continue to be available on the well-established domain-specific platforms and websites, and are also consecutively integrated with the interoperable central EPOS data infrastructure. EPOS Seismology and its participating organizations provide a consistent framework for the future development of these services and their operation as EPOS services, closely coordinated also with other international seismological initiatives, and is well set to represent the European seismological research infrastructures and their stakeholders within EPOS.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio