Ensemble Kalman filter versus ensemble smoother for assessing hydraulic conductivity via tracer test data assimilation

Abstract. Estimating the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is important for predicting the transport of dissolved compounds. Especially in the nonreactive case, the plume evolution is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman-filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the ensemble smoother (ES) capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman-filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf) and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations

The size of juxtaluminal hypoechoic area in ultrasound images of asymptomatic carotid plaques predicts the occurrence of stroke

Objective: To test the hypothesis that the size of a juxtaluminal black (hypoechoic) area (JBA) in ultrasound images of asymptomatic carotid artery plaques predicts future ipsilateral ischemic stroke. Methods: A JBA was defined as an area of pixels with a grayscale value <25 adjacent to the lumen without a visible echogenic cap after image normalization. The size of a JBA was measured in the carotid plaque images of 1121 patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis 50% to 99% in relation to the bulb (Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis and Risk of Stroke study); the patients were followed for up to 8 years. Results: The JBA had a linear association with future stroke rate. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.816. Using Kaplan-Meier curves, the mean annual stroke rate was 0.4% in 706 patients with a JBA <4 mm 2, 1.4% in 171 patients with a JBA 4 to 8 mm2, 3.2% in 46 patients with a JBA 8 to 10 mm2, and 5% in 198 patients with a JBA >10 mm2 (P <.001). In a Cox model with ipsilateral ischemic events (amaurosis fugax, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or stroke) as the dependent variable, the JBA (<4 mm2, 4-8 mm2, >8 mm2) was still significant after adjusting for other plaque features known to be associated with increased risk, including stenosis, grayscale median, presence of discrete white areas without acoustic shadowing indicating neovascularization, plaque area, and history of contralateral TIA or stroke. Plaque area and grayscale median were not significant. Using the significant variables (stenosis, discrete white areas without acoustic shadowing, JBA, and history of contralateral TIA or stroke), this model predicted the annual risk of stroke for each patient (range, 0.1%-10.0%). The average annual stroke risk was <1% in 734 patients, 1% to 1.9% in 94 patients, 2% to 3.9% in 134 patients, 4% to 5.9% in 125 patients, and 6% to 10% in 34 patients. Conclusions: The size of a JBA is linearly related to the risk of stroke and can be used in risk stratification models. These findings need to be confirmed in future prospective studies or in the medical arm of randomized controlled studies in the presence of optimal medical therapy. In the meantime, the JBA may be used to select asymptomatic patients at high stroke risk for carotid endarterectomy and spare patients at low risk from an unnecessary operation

Asymptomatic internal carotid artery stenosis and cerebrovascular risk stratification

Background The purpose of this study was to determine the cerebrovascular risk stratification potential of baseline degree of stenosis, clinical features, and ultrasonic plaque characteristics in patients with asymptomatic internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Methods This was a prospective, multicenter, cohort study of patients undergoing medical intervention for vascular disease. Hazard ratios for ICA stenosis, clinical features, and plaque texture features associated with ipsilateral cerebrovascular or retinal ischemic (CORI) events were calculated using proportional hazards models. Results A total of 1121 patients with 50% to 99% asymptomatic ICA stenosis in relation to the bulb (European Carotid Surgery Trial [ECST] method) were followed-up for 6 to 96 months (mean, 48). A total of 130 ipsilateral CORI events occurred. Severity of stenosis, age, systolic blood pressure, increased serum creatinine, smoking history of more than 10 pack-years, history of contralateral transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) or stroke, low grayscale median (GSM), increased plaque area, plaque types 1, 2, and 3, and the presence of discrete white areas (DWAs) without acoustic shadowing were associated with increased risk. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for predicted risk versus observed CORI events as a measure of model validity. The areas under the ROC curves for a model of stenosis alone, a model of stenosis combined with clinical features and a model of stenosis combined with clinical, and plaque features were 0.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.64), 0.66 (0.62-0.72), and 0.82 (0.78-0.86), respectively. In the last model, stenosis, history of contralateral TIAs or stroke, GSM, plaque area, and DWAs were independent predictors of ipsilateral CORI events. Combinations of these could stratify patients into different levels of risk for ipsilateral CORI and stroke, with predicted risk close to observed risk. Of the 923 patients with <70% stenosis, the predicted cumulative 5-year stroke rate was <5% in 495, 5% to 9.9% in 202, 10% to 19.9% in 142, and <20% in 84 patients. Conclusion Cerebrovascular risk stratification is possible using a combination of clinical and ultrasonic plaque features. These findings need to be validated in additional prospective studies of patients receiving optimal medical intervention alone. Copyright © 2010 by the Society for Vascular Surgery

Behavioral and psychological effects of coronavirus disease-19 quarantine in patients with dementia

Background: In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic due to the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and several governments planned a national quarantine in order to control the virus spread. Acute psychological effects of quarantine in frail elderly subjects with special needs, such as patients with dementia, have been poorly investigated. The aim of this study was to assess modifications of neuropsychiatric symptoms during quarantine in patients with dementia and their caregivers. Methods: This is a sub-study of a multicenter nation-wide survey. A structured telephone interview was delivered to family caregivers of patients with diagnosis of Alzheimer disease (AD), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and vascular dementia (VD), followed regularly at 87 Italian memory clinics. Variations in behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPSD) were collected after 1 month since quarantine declaration and associations with disease type, severity, gender, and caregiver\u2019s stress burden were analyzed. Results: A total of 4,913 caregivers participated in the survey. Increased BPSD was reported in 59.6% of patients as worsening of preexisting symptoms (51.9%) or as new onset (26%), and requested drug modifications in 27.6% of these cases. Irritability, apathy, agitation, and anxiety were the most frequently reported worsening symptoms and sleep disorder and irritability the most frequent new symptoms. Profile of BPSD varied according to dementia type, disease severity, and patients\u2019 gender. Anxiety and depression were associated with a diagnosis of AD (OR 1.35, CI: 1.12\u20131.62), mild to moderate disease severity and female gender. DLB was significantly associated with a higher risk of worsening hallucinations (OR 5.29, CI 3.66\u20137.64) and sleep disorder (OR 1.69, CI 1.25\u20132.29), FTD with wandering (OR 1.62, CI 1.12\u20132.35), and change of appetite (OR 1.52, CI 1.03\u20132.25). Stress-related symptoms were experienced by two-thirds of caregivers and were associated with increased patients\u2019 neuropsychiatric burden (p&lt;0.0001). Conclusion: Quarantine induces a rapid increase of BPSD in approximately 60% of patients and stress-related symptoms in two-thirds of caregivers. Health services need to plan a post-pandemic strategy in order to address these emerging needs

The management of acute venous thromboembolism in clinical practice. Results from the European PREFER in VTE Registry

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Europe. Data from real-world registries are necessary, as clinical trials do not represent the full spectrum of VTE patients seen in clinical practice. We aimed to document the epidemiology, management and outcomes of VTE using data from a large, observational database. PREFER in VTE was an international, non-interventional disease registry conducted between January 2013 and July 2015 in primary and secondary care across seven European countries. Consecutive patients with acute VTE were documented and followed up over 12 months. PREFER in VTE included 3,455 patients with a mean age of 60.8 ± 17.0 years. Overall, 53.0 % were male. The majority of patients were assessed in the hospital setting as inpatients or outpatients (78.5 %). The diagnosis was deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) in 59.5 % and pulmonary embolism (PE) in 40.5 %. The most common comorbidities were the various types of cardiovascular disease (excluding hypertension; 45.5 %), hypertension (42.3 %) and dyslipidaemia (21.1 %). Following the index VTE, a large proportion of patients received initial therapy with heparin (73.2 %), almost half received a vitamin K antagonist (48.7 %) and nearly a quarter received a DOAC (24.5 %). Almost a quarter of all presentations were for recurrent VTE, with &gt;80 % of previous episodes having occurred more than 12 months prior to baseline. In conclusion, PREFER in VTE has provided contemporary insights into VTE patients and their real-world management, including their baseline characteristics, risk factors, disease history, symptoms and signs, initial therapy and outcomes

Ensemble Kalman filter versus particle filter for a physically-based coupled surface-subsurface model

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and sequential importance resampling (SIR) are two Monte Carlo-based sequential data assimilation (DA) methods developed to solve the filtering problem in nonlinear systems. Both methods present drawbacks when applied to physically-based nonlinear models: the EnKF update is affected by the inherent Gaussian approximation, while SIR may require a large number of Monte Carlo realizations to ensure consistent updates. In this work we implemented EnKF and SIR into a physically-based coupled surface-subsurface flow model and applied it to a synthetic test case that considers a uniform soil v-shaped catchment subject to rainfall and evaporation events. After a sensitivity analysis on the number of Monte Carlo realizations and the correlation time of the atmospheric forcing, the comparison between the two filters is done on the basis of different simulation scenarios varying observations (outlet streamflow and/or pressure head), assimilation frequency, and type of bias (atmospheric forcing or initial conditions). The results demonstrate that both EnKF and SIR are suitable DA methods for detailed physically-based hydrological modeling using the same, relatively small, ensemble size. We highlight that the Gaussian approximation in the EnKF updates leads to a state estimation that can be not consistent with the physics of the model, resulting in a slowdown of the numerical solver. SIR instead duplicates physically consistent realizations, but can display difficulties in updates when the realizations are far from the true state. We propose and test a modification of the SIR algorithm to overcome this issue and preserve assimilation efficiency. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd