HERMES-24 Score Derivation and Validation for Simple and Robust Outcome Prediction After Large Vessel Occlusion Treatment

\ua9 2024 American Heart Association, Inc. BACKGROUND: Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making. We aimed to develop a simple outcome prediction score applied 24 hours after anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treatment with endovascular thrombectomy and validate it in patients treated both with and without endovascular thrombectomy. METHODS: Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) collaboration data set (n=1764), patients in the endovascular thrombectomy arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n=430) and a validation cohort (n=441). From a set of candidate predictors, logistic regression modeling using forward variable selection was used to select a model that was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in validation cohort, control arm (n=893), and external validation cohorts from the ESCAPE-NA1 (Efficacy and Safety of Nerinetide for the Treatment of Acute Ischaemic Stroke; n=1066) and INTERRSeCT (Identifying New Approaches to Optimize Thrombus Characterization for Predicting Early Recanalization and Reperfusion With IV Alteplase and Other Treatments Using Serial CT Angiography; n=614). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, we selected 2 significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and age [β-coefficient, 0.34 and 0.06]) and derived the HERMES-24 score: age (years)/10+National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours. The HERMES-24 score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 (c-statistic 0.907 [95% CI, 0.879–0.935]) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort and the control arm, the HERMES-24 score predicts mRS ≤2 (c-statistic, 0.914 [95% CI, 0.886–0.944] and 0.909 [95% CI, 0.887–0.930]). Observed provability of mRS ≤2 ranged between 3.1% and 3.4% when HERMES-24 score ≥25, while it ranged between 90.6% and 93.0% when HERMES-24 score <10 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort, and control arm. The HERMES-24 score also showed c-statistics of 0.894 and 0.889 for mRS ≤2 in the ESCAPE-NA1 and INTERRSeCT populations. CONCLUSIONS: The post-treatment HERMES-24 score is a simple validated score that predicts a 3-month outcome after anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke regardless of intervention, which helps prognostic discussion with families on day 2

A Delphi study and ranking exercise to support commissioning services:Future delivery of Thrombectomy services in England

Background: Intra-arterial thrombectomy is the gold standard treatment for large artery occlusive stroke. However, the evidence of its benefits is almost entirely based on trials delivered by experienced neurointerventionists working in established teams in neuroscience centres. Those responsible for the design and prospective reconfiguration of services need access to a comprehensive and complementary array of information on which to base their decisions. This will help to ensure the demonstrated effects from trials may be realised in practice and account for regional/local variations in resources and skill-sets. One approach to elucidate the implementation preferences and considerations of key experts is a Delphi survey. In order to support commissioning decisions, we aimed to using an electronic Delphi survey to establish consensus on the options for future organisation of thrombectomy services among physicians with clinical experience in managing large artery occlusive stroke. Methods: A Delphi survey was developed with 12 options for future organisation of thrombectomy services in England. A purposive sampling strategy established an expert panel of stroke physicians from the British Association of Stroke Physicians (BASP) Clinical Standards and/or Executive Membership that deliver 24/7 intravenous thrombolysis. Options with aggregate scores falling within the lowest quartile were removed from the subsequent Delphi round. Options reaching consensus following the two Delphi rounds were then ranked in a final exercise by both the wider BASP membership and the British Society of Neuroradiologists (BSNR). Results: Eleven stroke physicians from BASP completed the initial two Delphi rounds. Three options achieved consensus, with subsequently wider BASP (97%, n=43) and BSNR members (86%, n=21) assigning the highest approval rankings in the final exercise for transferring large artery occlusive stroke patients to nearest neuroscience centre for thrombectomy based on local CT/CT Angiography. Conclusions: The initial Delphi rounds ensured optimal reduction of options by an expert panel of stroke physicians, while subsequent ranking exercises allowed remaining options to be ranked by a wider group of experts within stroke to reach consensus. The preferred implementation option for thrombectomy is conveying suspected stroke patients for CT/CT Angiography and secondary transfer of large artery occlusive stroke patients to the nearest neuroscience centre

Association between i.v. thrombolysis volume and door-to-needle times in acute ischemic stroke

Centralization of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) for acute ischemic stroke in high-volume centers is believed to improve the door-to-needle times (DNT), but limited data support this assumption. We examined the association between DNT and IVT volume in a large Dutch province. We identified consecutive patients treated with IVT between January 2009 and 2013. Based on annualized IVT volume, hospitals were categorized as low-volume (≤ 24), medium-volume (25-49) or high-volume (≥ 50). In logistic regression analysis, low-volume hospitals were used as reference category. Of 17,332 stroke patients from 11 participating hospitals, 1962 received IVT (11.3 %). We excluded 140 patients because of unknown DNT (n = 86) or in-hospital stroke (n = 54). There were two low-volume (total 101 patients), five medium-volume (747 patients) and four high-volume hospitals (974 patients). Median DNT was shorter in high-volume hospitals (30 min) than in medium-volume (42 min, p < 0.001) and low-volume hospitals (38 min, p < 0.001). Patients admitted to high-volume hospitals had a higher chance of DNT < 30 min (adjusted OR 3.13, 95 % CI 1.70-5.75), lower risk of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (adjusted OR 0.39, 95 % CI 0.16-0.92), and a lower mortality risk (adjusted OR 0.45, 95 % CI 0.21-1.01), compared to low-volume centers. There was no difference in DNT between low- and medium-volume hospitals. Onset-to-needle times (ONT) did not differ between the groups. Hospitals in this Dutch province generally achieved short DNTs. Despite this overall good performance, higher IVT volumes were associated with shorter DNTs and lower complication risks. The ONT was not associated with IVT volum

Association of follow-up infarct volume with functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: a pooled analysis of seven randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: Follow-up infarct volume (FIV) has been recommended as an early indicator of treatment efficacy in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Questions remain about the optimal imaging approach for FIV measurement. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of FIV with 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score and investigate its dependency on acquisition time and modality. METHODS: Data of seven trials were pooled. FIV was assessed on follow-up (12 hours to 2 weeks) CT or MRI. Infarct location was defined as laterality and involvement of the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score regions. Relative quality and strength of multivariable regression models of the association between FIV and functional outcome were assessed. Dependency of imaging modality and acquisition time (≤48 hours vs >48 hours) was evaluated. RESULTS: Of 1665 included patients, 83% were imaged with CT. Median FIV was 41 mL (IQR 14-120). A large FIV was associated with worse functional outcome (OR=0.88(95% CI 0.87 to 0.89) per 10 mL) in adjusted analysis. A model including FIV, location, and hemorrhage type best predicted mRS score. FIV of ≥133 mL was highly specific for unfavorable outcome. FIV was equally strongly associated with mRS score for assessment on CT and MRI, even though large differences in volume were present (48 mL (IQR 15-131) vs 22 mL (IQR 8-71), respectively). Associations of both early and late FIV assessments with outcome were similar in strength (ρ=0.60(95% CI 0.56 to 0.64) and ρ=0.55(95% CI 0.50 to 0.60), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with an acute ischemic stroke due to a proximal intracranial occlusion of the anterior circulation, FIV is a strong independent predictor of functional outcome and can be assessed before 48 hours, oneither CT or MRI

Late Window Imaging Selection for Endovascular Therapy of Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke: An International Survey

Background Current stroke guidelines recommend advanced imaging (computed tomography [CT] perfusion or magnetic resonance imaging) prior to endovascular therapy (EVT) in patients with late presentation of large vessel occlusion. Adherence to guidelines may be constrained by resources or timely access to imaging. We sought to understand the factors which influence late window imaging selection for EVT candidates with large vessel occlusion. Methods We conducted an international survey from January to May 2022. The questions aimed to identify advanced imaging and treatment decisions based on access to imaging, time delays, and simulated patient scenarios. Results There were 3000 invited participants and 1506 respondents, the majority (89.6%) from comprehensive stroke centers in high‐income countries. Neurointerventionalists comprised 31.8% and noninterventionalists 68.2% of respondents. Overall, 70.7% reported routine use of advanced imaging for late EVT selection, and 63.6% reported its usage in every case. There was greater availability of advanced imaging in comprehensive stroke centers versus primary stroke centers (67.0% versus 33.7%; P<0.0001), and high‐ versus low‐middle income countries (70.5% versus 44.5%; P<0.0001). When presented with a late window patient, 41.6% would complete CT perfusion or magnetic resonance imaging prior to EVT, 25.4% would perform CT perfusion or magnetic resonance imaging prior to IVT and EVT, and 25.8% would refer to EVT without advanced imaging. If advanced imaging was not readily available, 70.1% would refer a patient to EVT based on CT in the late window. Additional time delay within 20 minutes to obtain advanced imaging was considered acceptable in 77.7% of respondents. Conclusion Current guidelines for imaging late window EVT candidates are inconsistent with imaging decisions by physicians. Most respondents consider an imaging delay of greater than 20 minutes unacceptable. Access to advanced imaging was greater in comprehensive stroke centers and high‐income countries. In the case of limited access most respondents would consider EVT based on CT only

Protocol for the perfusion and angiography imaging sub-study of the Third International Stroke Trial (IST-3) of alteplase treatment within six-hours of acute ischemic stroke

RATIONALE: Intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue Plasminogen Activator improves outcomes in patients treated early after stroke but at the risk of causing intracranial hemorrhage. Restricting recombinant tissue Plasminogen Activator use to patients with evidence of still salvageable tissue, or with definite arterial occlusion, might help reduce risk, increase benefit and identify patients for treatment at late time windows. AIMS: To determine if perfusion or angiographic imaging with computed tomography or magnetic resonance help identify patients who are more likely to benefit from recombinant tissue Plasminogen Activator in the context of a large multicenter randomized trial of recombinant tissue Plasminogen Activator given within six-hours of onset of acute ischemic stroke, the Third International Stroke Trial. DESIGN: Third International Stroke Trial is a prospective multicenter randomized controlled trial testing recombinant tissue Plasminogen Activator (0·9 mg/kg, maximum dose 90 mg) started up to six-hours after onset of acute ischemic stroke, in patients with no clear indication for or contraindication to recombinant tissue Plasminogen Activator. Brain imaging (computed tomography or magnetic resonance) was mandatory pre-randomization to exclude hemorrhage. Scans were read centrally, blinded to treatment and clinical information. In centers where perfusion and/or angiography imaging were used routinely in stroke, these images were also collected centrally, processed and assessed using validated visual scores and computational measures. STUDY OUTCOMES: The primary outcome in Third International Stroke Trial is alive and independent (Oxford Handicap Score 0-2) at 6 months; secondary outcomes are symptomatic and fatal intracranial hemorrhage, early and late death. The perfusion and angiography study additionally will examine interactions between recombinant tissue Plasminogen Activator and clinical outcomes, infarct growth and recanalization in the presence or absence of perfusion lesions and/or arterial occlusion at presentation. The study is registered ISRCTN25765518