Evidence in Classical Statistics

The dominance of classical statistics raises a puzzle for epistemologists. On one hand, science is a paradigmatic source of good evidence, with quantitative experimental science often described in classical statistical terms. On the other, the hybrid of Fisherian and Neyman-Pearsonian techniques is generally rejected by philosophers, statisticians, and scientists who study the foundations of statistics. So why is the use of classical statistics in empirical science so epistemically successful? Do classical “measures” of evidence actually measure anything epistemically important? This chapter provides some positive answers to these questions

Evidence in Classical Statistics

The dominance of classical statistics raises a puzzle for epistemologists. On one hand, science is a paradigmatic source of good evidence, with quantitative experimental science often described in classical statistical terms. On the other, the hybrid of Fisherian and Neyman-Pearsonian techniques is generally rejected by philosophers, statisticians, and scientists who study the foundations of statistics. So why is the use of classical statistics in empirical science so epistemically successful? Do classical “measures” of evidence actually measure anything epistemically important? This chapter provides some positive answers to these questions

Establishing the entatic state in folding metallated Pseudomonas aeruginosa azurin

Understanding how the folding of proteins establishes their functional characteristics at the molecular level challenges both theorists and experimentalists. The simplest test beds for confronting this issue are provided by electron transfer proteins. The environment provided by the folded protein to the cofactor tunes the metal's electron transport capabilities as envisioned in the entatic hypothesis. To see how the entatic state is achieved one must study how the folding landscape affects and in turn is affected by the metal. Here, we develop a coarse-grained functional to explicitly model how the coordination of the metal (which results in a so-called entatic or rack-induced state) modifies the folding of the metallated Pseudomonas aeruginosa azurin. Our free-energy functional-based approach directly yields the proper nonlinear extra-thermodynamic free energy relationships for the kinetics of folding the wild type and several point-mutated variants of the metallated protein. The results agree quite well with corresponding laboratory experiments. Moreover, our modified free-energy functional provides a sufficient level of detail to explicitly model how the geometric entatic state of the metal modifies the dynamic folding nucleus of azurin

Whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of \u3ci\u3eBluetongue virus\u3c/i\u3e serotype 2 strains isolated in the Americas including a novel strain from the western United States

Bluetongue is a potentially fatal arboviral disease of domestic and wild ruminants that is characterized by widespread edema and tissue necrosis. Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes 10, 11, 13, and 17 occur throughout much of the United States, whereas serotype 2 (BTV-2) was previously only detected in the southeastern United States. Since 1998, 10 other BTV serotypes have also been isolated from ruminants in the southeastern United States. In 2010, BTV-2 was identified in California for the first time, and preliminary sequence analysis indicated that the virus isolate was closely related to BTV strains circulating in the southeastern United States. In the current study, the whole genome sequence of the California strain of BTV-2 was compared with those of other BTV-2 strains in the Americas. The results of the analysis suggest co-circulation of genetically distinct viruses in the southeastern United States, and further suggest that the 2010 western isolate is closely related to southeastern strains of BTV. Although it remains uncertain as to how this novel virus was translocated to California, the findings of the current study underscore the need for ongoing surveillance of this economically important livestock disease

Binary-induced collapse of a compact, collisionless cluster

We improve and extend Shapiro's model of a relativistic, compact object which is stable in isolation but is driven dynamically unstable by the tidal field of a binary companion. Our compact object consists of a dense swarm of test particles moving in randomly-oriented, initially circular, relativistic orbits about a nonrotating black hole. The binary companion is a distant, slowly inspiraling point mass. The tidal field of the companion is treated as a small perturbation on the background Schwarzschild geometry near the hole; the resulting metric is determined by solving the perturbation equations of Regge and Wheeler and Zerilli in the quasi-static limit. The perturbed spacetime supports Bekenstein's conjecture that the horizon area of a near-equilibrium black hole is an adiabatic invariant. We follow the evolution of the system and confirm that gravitational collapse can be induced in a compact collisionless cluster by the tidal field of a binary companion.Comment: 9 Latex pages, 14 postscript figure

Restoring invisible and abandoned trials of gabapentin for neuropathic pain: a clinical and methodological investigation

Introduction Gabapentin (Neurontin) is prescribed widely for conditions for which it has not been approved by regulators, including certain neuropathic pain conditions. There is limited evidence that gabapentin is safe and effective for the treatment of neuropathic pain. Published trial reports, and systematic reviews based on published trial reports, mislead patients and providers because information about gabapentin's harms has been published only partly. We confirmed that trials conducted by the drug developer have been abandoned, and we plan to conduct a restoration with support from the Restoring Invisible and Abandoned Trials Support Centre (https://restoringtrials.org/). Methods and analysis In this study, we will analyse and report the harms that were observed in six trials of gabapentin, which have not been reported publicly (eg, in journal articles). We will use clinical study reports and individual participant data to identify and report the harms observed in each individual trial and to summarise the harms observed across all six trials. We will report all adverse events observed in the included trials by sharing deidentified data and summary tables on the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/w8puv/). Additionally, we will produce a summary report that describes differences between the randomised groups in each trial and across trials for prespecified harms outcomes. Ethics and dissemination We will use secondary data. This study was determined to be exempt from Institutional Review Board (IRB) review (protocol #1910607198)

Altruism can proliferate through group/kin selection despite high random gene flow

The ways in which natural selection can allow the proliferation of cooperative behavior have long been seen as a central problem in evolutionary biology. Most of the literature has focused on interactions between pairs of individuals and on linear public goods games. This emphasis led to the conclusion that even modest levels of migration would pose a serious problem to the spread of altruism in group structured populations. Here we challenge this conclusion, by analyzing evolution in a framework which allows for complex group interactions and random migration among groups. We conclude that contingent forms of strong altruism can spread when rare under realistic group sizes and levels of migration. Our analysis combines group-centric and gene-centric perspectives, allows for arbitrary strength of selection, and leads to extensions of Hamilton's rule for the spread of altruistic alleles, applicable under broad conditions.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Supplementary material with 50 pages and 26 figure

Searching for a technology-driven acute rheumatic fever test: The START study protocol

Introduction: The absence of a diagnostic test for acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a major impediment in managing this serious childhood condition. ARF is an autoimmune condition triggered by infection with group A Streptococcus. It is the precursor to rheumatic heart disease (RHD), a leading cause of health inequity and premature mortality for Indigenous peoples of Australia, New Zealand and internationally. Methods and analysis: Searching for a Technology-Driven Acute Rheumatic Fever Test\u27 (START) is a biomarker discovery study that aims to detect and test a biomarker signature that distinguishes ARF cases from non-ARF, and use systems biology and serology to better understand ARF pathogenesis. Eligible participants with ARF diagnosed by an expert clinical panel according to the 2015 Revised Jones Criteria, aged 5-30 years, will be recruited from three hospitals in Australia and New Zealand. Age, sex and ethnicity-matched individuals who are healthy or have non-ARF acute diagnoses or RHD, will be recruited as controls. In the discovery cohort, blood samples collected at baseline, and during convalescence in a subset, will be interrogated by comprehensive profiling to generate possible diagnostic biomarker signatures. A biomarker validation cohort will subsequently be used to test promising combinations of biomarkers. By defining the first biomarker signatures able to discriminate between ARF and other clinical conditions, the START study has the potential to transform the approach to ARF diagnosis and RHD prevention. Ethics and dissemination: The study has approval from the Northern Territory Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research ethics committee and the New Zealand Health and Disability Ethics Committee. It will be conducted according to ethical standards for research involving Indigenous Australians and New Zealand Mā ori and Pacific Peoples. Indigenous investigators and governance groups will provide oversight of study processes and advise on cultural matters

Recognition, assessment and treatment of social anxiety disorder: summary of NICE guidance

Social anxiety disorder is one of the most persistent and common of the anxiety disorders, with lifetime prevalence rates in Europe of 6.7% (range 3.9-13.7%).1 It often coexists with depression, substance use disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, panic disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder.2 It can severely impair a person’s daily functioning by impeding the formation of relationships, reducing quality of life, and negatively affecting performance at work or school. Despite this, and the fact that effective treatments exist, only about half of people with this condition seek treatment, many after waiting 10-15 years.3 Although about 40% of those who develop the condition in childhood or adolescence recover before adulthood,4 for many the disorder persists into adulthood, with the chance of spontaneous recovery then limited compared with other mental health problems. This article summarises the most recent recommendations from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) on recognising, assessing, and treating social anxiety disorder in children, young people, and adults.