Comparative analysis of the seismic hazard of Central China

Seismic hazard assessment is globally recognised as a tool in identifying levels of earthquake ground shaking within an area. However, methodologies for seismic hazard calculation are wide ranging and produce variations in results and maps. As a case study seismic hazard and results from Gumbel’s method of extremes are determined for the area of greatest intraplate seismicity in China covering the provinces of Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan. This area is termed the North-South Seismic Zone. Devastating earthquakes in this zone include the 8.4 MS 1920 Haiyuan earthquake causing over 220,000 deaths and the 1996 Lijiang earthquake. Most recently the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake caused over 69,000 deaths with more than 18,000 people missing. These results and seismic hazard maps are compared with the publicly available maps of GSHAP and the national seismic hazard map of China at the level of 10% probability of exceedance in a 50 year period. The distributions of high and low hazard areas are similar and adjacent to the major thrust and strike-slip faults dominating in this area. However, results from the Gumbel method of extremes suggest that the hazard levels within certain areas are slightly different compared to the other two models. This is primarily because the Gumbel methodology is based on determining hazard from earthquakes that have already taken place whereas the other two models determine maximum hazard levels in areas which may exhibit no previous strong hazard. Additionally the Chinese national hazard map does not indicate levels of ground shaking intensity greater than IX in detail, whereas such zones are identified using the extreme value method. This work should be used to strengthen the seismic hazard analysis of this area of China

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The Kinematic and Spatial Deployment of Compact, Isolated High-Velocity Clouds

We have identified a class of high-velocity clouds which are compact and apparently isolated. The clouds are compact in that they have angular sizes less than 2 degrees FWHM. They are isolated in that they are separated from neighboring emission by expanses where no emission is seen to the detection limit of the available data. Candidates for inclusion in this class were extracted from the Leiden/Dwingeloo HI survey of Hartmann & Burton and from the Wakker & van Woerden catalogue of high-velocity clouds. The candidates were subject to independent confirmation using either the 25-meter telescope in Dwingeloo or the 140-foot telescope in Green Bank. We argue that the resulting list, even if incomplete, is sufficiently representative of the ensemble of compact, isolated HVCs - CHVCs - that the characteristics of their disposition on the sky, and of their kinematics, are revealing of some physical aspects of the class. The CHVCs are in fact distributed quite uniformly across the sky. A global search for the reference frame which minimizes the velocity dispersion of the ensemble returns the Local Group Standard of Rest with high confidence. The CHVCs are not stationary with respect to this reference frame but have a mean infall velocity of 100 km/s. These properties are strongly suggestive of a population which has as yet had little interaction with the more massive Local Group members. At a typical distance of about 1 Mpc these objects would have sizes of about 15 kpc and gas masses, M_HI, of a few times 10^7 M_Sun, corresponding to those of (sub-)dwarf galaxies. (abridged)Comment: 13 page LaTeX, requires aa.cls and rotate.sty, 5 GIF figures. Accepted for publication in A&

HI Observations Towards the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

We have measured the 21-cm line of Galactic HI over more than 50 square degrees in the direction of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The data show no evidence of HI associated with the dwarf spheroidal which might be consider analogous to the Magellanic Stream as it is associated in both position and velocity with the Large Magellanic Cloud. Nor do the HI data show evidence for any disturbance in the Milky Way disk gas that can be unambiguously assigned to interaction with the dwarf galaxy. The data shown here limit the HI mass at the velocity of the Sagittarius dwarf to <7000 solar masses over some 18 square degrees between Galactic latitudes -13 degrees and -18 degrees.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Face pairing graphs and 3-manifold enumeration

The face pairing graph of a 3-manifold triangulation is a 4-valent graph denoting which tetrahedron faces are identified with which others. We present a series of properties that must be satisfied by the face pairing graph of a closed minimal P^2-irreducible triangulation. In addition we present constraints upon the combinatorial structure of such a triangulation that can be deduced from its face pairing graph. These results are then applied to the enumeration of closed minimal P^2-irreducible 3-manifold triangulations, leading to a significant improvement in the performance of the enumeration algorithm. Results are offered for both orientable and non-orientable triangulations.Comment: 30 pages, 57 figures; v2: clarified some passages and generalised the final theorem to the non-orientable case; v3: fixed a flaw in the proof of the conical face lemm

Seismic hazard and risk in Shanghai and estimation of expected building damage

The People's Republic of China is in the process of rapid demographic, economic and urban change including nationwide engineering and building construction at an unprecedented scale. The mega-city of Shanghai is at the centre of China's modernisation. Rapid urbanisation and building growth have increased the exposure of people and property to natural disasters. The seismic hazard of Shanghai and its vicinity is presented from a seismogenic free-zone methodology. A PGA value of 49 cm s-2 and a maximum intensity value of VII for the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale (a scale similar to the Modified Mercalli) for a 99% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years are determined for Shanghai city. The potential building damage for three independent districts of the city centre named Putuo, Nanjing Road and Pudong are calculated using damage vulnerability matrices. It is found that old civil houses of brick and timber are the most vulnerable buildings with potentially a mean probability value of 7.4% of this building structure type exhibiting the highest damage grade at intensity VII