Descriptive inference using large, unrepresentative nonprobability samples: An introduction for ecologists

\ua9 2023 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.Biodiversity monitoring usually involves drawing inferences about some variable of interest across a defined landscape from observations made at a sample of locations within that landscape. If the variable of interest differs between sampled and nonsampled locations, and no mitigating action is taken, then the sample is unrepresentative and inferences drawn from it will be biased. It is possible to adjust unrepresentative samples so that they more closely resemble the wider landscape in terms of “auxiliary variables.” A good auxiliary variable is a common cause of sample inclusion and the variable of interest, and if it explains an appreciable portion of the variance in both, then inferences drawn from the adjusted sample will be closer to the truth. We applied six types of survey sample adjustment—subsampling, quasirandomization, poststratification, superpopulation modeling, a “doubly robust” procedure, and multilevel regression and poststratification—to a simple two-part biodiversity monitoring problem. The first part was to estimate the mean occupancy of the plant Calluna vulgaris in Great Britain in two time periods (1987–1999 and 2010–2019); the second was to estimate the difference between the two (i.e., the trend). We estimated the means and trend using large, but (originally) unrepresentative, samples from a citizen science dataset. Compared with the unadjusted estimates, the means and trends estimated using most adjustment methods were more accurate, although standard uncertainty intervals generally did not cover the true values. Completely unbiased inference is not possible from an unrepresentative sample without knowing and having data on all relevant auxiliary variables. Adjustments can reduce the bias if auxiliary variables are available and selected carefully, but the potential for residual bias should be acknowledged and reported

Molecular pathogenesis of proliferative verrucous leukoplakia: a systematic review

Proliferative verrucous leukoplakia (PVL) is a potentially premalignant lesion that undergoes malignant transformation in over 40% of cases. Its clinical homogeneity suggests that a single or a small number of molecular pathogenic pathways may exist. Using the Cochrane protocol for systematic reviews, we have looked at the reported evidence of the molecular aetiology and pathogenesis of PVL and compared it with that of conventional oral epithelial dysplasia (OED). Of the 43 papers studied, 19 met the inclusion criteria including 13 proteins assayed in 344 tissues, and genes investigated were TP53, p14ARF, and p16INK4A. In all studies the research objectives were defined and outcomes were clearly stated. This review has shown that the transformation of PVL does not follow the same pathway as that of OED. There was weak evidence to suggest possible correlations between DNA aneuploidy, loss of heterozygosity at locus 9p21, and specific expression of Mcm (mini chromosome maintenance) protein, to transformation of PVL. To show important or distinct pathways of this condition, further studies are needed to access the somatic genomic alterations that are found in malignancies

A Laser/EMAT Concurrent Weld Inspection System

A noncontacting ultrasonic sensor system is being developed for online inspection of thick section welds made by a robotic gas metal arc welding (GMAW) system. The sensor system consists of a pulsed laser for generating the ultrasound and an electromagnetic-acoustic transducer (EMAT) for receiving it. The sensor will follow closely behind the weld head and inspect the solidified weld bead for flaws. The main advantage of this technique is that flaws can be found and repaired before they are covered by subsequent welding passes. This is expected to be much simpler and less likely to induce further flaws than current practice since a large amount of otherwise good weld metal need not be removed to reach and repair a flaw. The system also monitors the welding process, i.e., detection of a large number of flaws indicates that the process is no longer operating as planned. In this paper, the technique for detecting incomplete sidewall penetration is demonstrated and methods for improving the system are discussed.</p

Characteristics of the Early Immune Response Following Transplantation of Mouse ES Cell Derived Insulin-Producing Cell Clusters

Background The fully differentiated progeny of ES cells (ESC) may eventually be used for cell replacement therapy (CRT). However, elements of the innate immune system may contribute to damage or destruction of these tissues when transplanted. Methodology/Principal Findings Herein, we assessed the hitherto ill-defined contribution of the early innate immune response in CRT after transplantation of either ESC derived insulin producing cell clusters (IPCCs) or adult pancreatic islets. Ingress of neutrophil or macrophage cells was noted immediately at the site of IPCC transplantation, but this infiltration was attenuated by day three. Gene profiling identified specific inflammatory cytokines and chemokines that were either absent or sharply reduced by three days after IPCC transplantation. Thus, IPCC transplantation provoked less of an early immune response than pancreatic islet transplantation. Conclusions/Significance Our study offers insights into the characteristics of the immune response of an ESC derived tissue in the incipient stages following transplantation and suggests potential strategies to inhibit cell damage to ensure their long-term perpetuation and functionality in CRT

A reassuring presence: An evaluation of Bradford District Hospice at Home service

Within the United Kingdom, a developing role for primary care services in cancer and palliative care has resulted in an increase in palliative home care teams. The provision of professional care in the home setting seeks to provide necessary services and enhanced choice for patients whose preference is to die at home. A mismatch between patient preference for home death and the actual number of people who died at home was identified within Bradford, the locality of this study. In response to this mismatch, and reflecting the policy environment of wishing to enhance community service provision, the four Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) in the city sought to offer support to patients who wished to remain in their own homes through the final stages of a terminal illness. To offer this support they set up a dedicated hospice at home team. This would provide services and support for patients in achieving a dignified, symptom free and peaceful death, allowing families to maximise time spent together. The aim of the study was to evaluate the Bradford hospice at home service from the perspective of carers, nurses and General Practitioners. Postal questionnaires were sent to carers (n = 289), district nurses (n = 508) and GP's (n = 444) using Bradford's hospice at home service. Resulting quantitative data was analysed using the Statical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and qualitative data was analysed using grounded theory techniques. The data from carers, district nurses and GPs provide general support for the Bradford hospice at home service. Carers valued highly the opportunity to 'fulfil a promise' to the individual who wished to be cared for at home. District nurses and GPs cited the positive impact of access to specialist expertise. This was a 'reassuring presence' for primary healthcare teams and offered 'relief of carer anxiety' by providing prompt, accessible and sensitive care. Carers and health professionals welcomed the increased possibility of patients being cared for at home. The study identified the need to focus on improving skill levels of staff and on ensuring continuity of care

Computing the common zeros of two bivariate functions via Bézout resultants

The common zeros of two bivariate functions can be computed by finding the common zeros of their polynomial interpolants expressed in a tensor Chebyshev basis. From here we develop a bivariate rootfinding algorithm based on the hidden variable resultant method and Bézout matrices with polynomial entries. Using techniques including domain subdivision, Bézoutian regularization, and local refinement we are able to reliably and accurately compute the simple common zeros of two smooth functions with polynomial interpolants of very high degree (≥ 1000). We analyze the resultant method and its conditioning by noting that the Bézout matrices are matrix polynomials. Two implementations are available: one on the Matlab Central File Exchange and another in the roots command in Chebfun2 that is adapted to suit Chebfun’s methodology

Effectiveness of interventions to promote healthy diet in primary care: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Background A diet rich in fruit, vegetables and dietary fibre and low in fat is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease. This review aimed to estimate the effectiveness of interventions to promote healthy diet for primary prevention among participants attending primary care.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods A systematic review of trials using individual or cluster randomisation of interventions delivered in primary care to promote dietary change over 12 months in healthy participants free from chronic disease or defined high risk states. Outcomes were change in fruit and vegetable intake, consumption of total fat and fibre and changes in serum cholesterol concentration.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results Ten studies were included with 12,414 participants. The design and delivery of interventions were diverse with respect to grounding in behavioural theory and intervention intensity. A meta-analysis of three studies showed an increase in fruit consumption of 0.25 (0.01 to 0.49) servings per day, with an increase in vegetable consumption of 0.25 (0.06 to 0.44) serving per day. A further three studies that reported on fruit and vegetable consumption together showed a pooled increment of 0.50 (0.13 to 0.87) servings per day. The pooled effect on consumption of dietary fibre, from four studies, was estimated to be 1.97 (0.43 to 3.52) gm fibre per day. Data from five studies showed a mean decrease in total fat intake of 5.2% of total energy (1.5 to 8.8%). Data from three studies showed a mean decrease in serum cholesterol of 0.10 (-0.19 to 0.00) mmol/L.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusion Presently-reported interventions to promote healthy diet for primary prevention in primary care, which illustrate a diverse range of intervention methods, may yield small beneficial changes in consumption of fruit, vegetables, fibre and fat over 12 months. The present results do not exclude the possibility that more effective intervention strategies might be developed.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

BRCA2 gene mutations in families with aggregations of breast and stomach cancers

Stomach cancer ranks second to lung cancer in the global cancer burden. It is estimated that 25% of families meeting the criteria for hereditary diffuse gastric carcinoma (HDCG) will have germline mutations in the E-cadherin gene. Evidence suggests that stomach cancer might also be a malignant manifestation of other inherited predispositions to disease. Recently, it has been reported that the incidence of stomach cancer is significantly increased in BRCA2 gene mutation carriers. We analysed by direct sequencing the BRCA2 gene in 29 breast cancer patients derived from 29 families with an aggregation of at least one female breast cancer diagnosed before the age of 50 years and one male stomach cancer diagnosed before the age of 55 years. In all but one of these families at least one additional relative was also affected by a malignant tumour. We identified three frameshift mutations and three sequence variants – potentially missense mutations, in six unrelated patients representing 20.7% (six out of 29) of the families investigated. Our results confirm that BRCA2 gene mutations are also associated with familial aggregations of not only breast but also of stomach cancer. In comparison to the number of cancers expected in the study population compared to the general population there is an over-representation of several cancers with significant confidence intervals to suggest that the associations are real and not a selection artefact

Are genetic risk factors for psychosis also associated with dimension-specific psychotic experiences in adolescence?

Psychosis has been hypothesised to be a continuously distributed quantitative phenotype and disorders such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder represent its extreme manifestations. Evidence suggests that common genetic variants play an important role in liability to both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Here we tested the hypothesis that these common variants would also influence psychotic experiences measured dimensionally in adolescents in the general population. Our aim was to test whether schizophrenia and bipolar disorder polygenic risk scores (PRS), as well as specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously identified as risk variants for schizophrenia, were associated with adolescent dimension-specific psychotic experiences. Self-reported Paranoia, Hallucinations, Cognitive Disorganisation, Grandiosity, Anhedonia, and Parent-rated Negative Symptoms, as measured by the Specific Psychotic Experiences Questionnaire (SPEQ), were assessed in a community sample of 2,152 16-year-olds. Polygenic risk scores were calculated using estimates of the log of odds ratios from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium GWAS stage-1 mega-analysis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The polygenic risk analyses yielded no significant associations between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder PRS and the SPEQ measures. The analyses on the 28 individual SNPs previously associated with schizophrenia found that two SNPs in TCF4 returned a significant association with the SPEQ Paranoia dimension, rs17512836 (p-value=2.57x10-4) and rs9960767 (p-value=6.23x10-4). Replication in an independent sample of 16-year-olds (N=3,427) assessed using the Psychotic-Like Symptoms Questionnaire (PLIKS-Q), a composite measure of multiple positive psychotic experiences, failed to yield significant results. Future research with PRS derived from larger samples, as well as larger adolescent validation samples, would improve the predictive power to test these hypotheses further. The challenges of relating adult clinical diagnostic constructs such as schizophrenia to adolescent psychotic experiences at a genetic level are discussed

‘Trendy’ cities: exploring the adoption of different types of social media by Portuguese municipalities

What are the determinants of social media adoption by local government? This ongoing research provides a tentative answer to this question by analysing the 308 municipalities in Portugal. Extending previous analyses of Facebook and/or Twitter usage levels, we examine why local governments adopt a particular social media platform. More concretely, we explore, with statistical analyses, the determinants of the adoption of different types of social media. We investigate the adoption of three extremely popular social media (i.e. Facebook, Twitter and YouTube) as well as possible alternatives to those, more popular, applications. Since these platforms have distinct natures and can serve diverse purposes, we examine to what extent aspects such as local government’s commitment to transparency and participation, administrative capacity, media landscape, and socio-demographic and economic factors can explain the adoption of certain social media platforms. The results show that, indeed, demographic characteristics and administrative capacity are important factors for the adoption of less popular social media. Surprisingly, we also observe a geographical difference in municipalities’ social media adoption, with the south, in this regard, being ‘trendier’, or more innovative, than the north.This paper is a result of the project “SmartEGOV: Harnessing EGOV for Smart Governance (Foundations, methods, Tools)/NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000037”, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (EFDR). António Tavares acknowledges the financial support of the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and the Portuguese Ministry of Education and Science through national funds [Grant No. UID/CPO/0758/2019]