Numerical characterization of cohesive and non-cohesive 'sediments' under different consolidation states using 3D DEM triaxial experiments

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Elyashiv, H., Bookman, R., Siemann, L., ten Brink, U., & Huhn, K. Numerical characterization of cohesive and non-cohesive 'sediments' under different consolidation states using 3D DEM triaxial experiments. Processes, 8(10), (2020): 1252, doi:10.3390/pr8101252.The Discrete Element Method has been widely used to simulate geo-materials due to time and scale limitations met in the field and laboratories. While cohesionless geo-materials were the focus of many previous studies, the deformation of cohesive geo-materials in 3D remained poorly characterized. Here, we aimed to generate a range of numerical ‘sediments’, assess their mechanical response to stress and compare their response with laboratory tests, focusing on differences between the micro- and macro-material properties. We simulated two endmembers—clay (cohesive) and sand (cohesionless). The materials were tested in a 3D triaxial numerical setup, under different simulated burial stresses and consolidation states. Variations in particle contact or individual bond strengths generate first order influence on the stress–strain response, i.e., a different deformation style of the numerical sand or clay. Increased burial depth generates a second order influence, elevating peak shear strength. Loose and dense consolidation states generate a third order influence of the endmember level. The results replicate a range of sediment compositions, empirical behaviors and conditions. We propose a procedure to characterize sediments numerically. The numerical ‘sediments’ can be applied to simulate processes in sediments exhibiting variations in strength due to post-seismic consolidation, bioturbation or variations in sedimentation rates.This research received no external funding

Impact of earthquakes on agriculture during the Roman–Byzantine period from pollen records of the Dead Sea laminated sediment

The Dead Sea region holds the archives of a complex relationship between an ever-changing nature and ancient civilisations. Regional pollen diagrams show a Roman–Byzantine period standing out in the recent millennia by its wetter climate that allowed intensive arboriculture. During that period, the Dead Sea formed laminites that display mostly a seasonal character. A multidisciplinary study focused on two earthquakes, 31 BC and AD 363, recorded as seismites in the Ze’elim gully A unit III which has been well dated by radiocarbon in a previous study. The sampling of the sediment was done at an annual resolution starting from a few years before and finishing a decade after each earthquake. A clear drop in agricultural indicators (especially Olea and cereals) is shown. These pollen indicators mostly reflect human activities in the Judean Hills and coastal oases. Agriculture was disturbed in large part of the rift valley where earthquake damage affected irrigation and access to the fields. It took 4 to 5 yr to resume agriculture to previous conditions. Earthquakes must be seen as contributors to factors damaging societies. If combined with other factors such as climatic aridification, disease epidemics and political upheaval, they may lead to civilisation collapse

The effect of bioturbation in pelagic sediments: Lessons from radioactive tracers and planktonic foraminifera in the Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea

Studies of recent environmental perturbations often rely on data derived from marine sedimentary records. These records are known to imperfectly inscribe the true sequence of events, yet there is large uncertainty regarding the corrections that should be employed to accurately describe the sedimentary history. Here we show in recent records from the Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea, how events of the abrupt disappearance of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer, and episodic deposition of the artificial radionuclide137Cs, are significantly altered in the sedimentary record compared to their known past timing. Instead of the abrupt disappearance of the foraminifera, we observe a prolonged decline beginning at core depth equivalent to ∼30 y prior to its actual disappearance and continuing for decades past the event. We further observe asymmetric smoothing of the radionuclide peak. Utilization of advection–diffusion–reaction models to reconstruct the original fluxes based on the known absolute timing of the events reveal that it is imperative to use a continuous function to describe bioturbation. Discretization of bioturbation into mixed and unmixed layers significantly shifts the location of the modeled event. When bioturbation is described as a continuously decreasing function of depth, the peak of a very short term event smears asymmetrically but remains in the right depth. When sudden events repeat while the first spike is still mixed with the upper sediment layer, bioturbation unifies adjacent peaks. The united peak appears at an intermediate depth that does not necessarily correlate with the timing of the individual events. In a third case, a long lasting sedimentary event affected by bioturbation, the resulting peak is rather weak compared to the actual event and appears deeper in the sediment column than expected based on the termination of the event. The model clearly shows that abrupt changes can only endure in the record if a thick sediment layer settled on the sediment–water interface at once or if bioturbation rates decreased to very low values for a prolonged period of time. In any other case smearing by bioturbation makes an abrupt event appear to have started shortly before the real timing and end long after its true termination

Predictive modeling for determination of microscopic residual disease at primary cytoreduction: An NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group 182 Study

Microscopic residual disease following complete cytoreduction (R0) is associated with a significant survival benefit for patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Our objective was to develop a prediction model for R0 to support surgeons in their clinical care decisions.Demographic, pathologic, surgical, and CA125 data were collected from GOG 182 records. Patients enrolled prior to September 1, 2003 were used for the training model while those enrolled after constituted the validation data set. Univariate analysis was performed to identify significant predictors of R0 and these variables were subsequently analyzed using multivariable regression. The regression model was reduced using backward selection and predictive accuracy was quantified using area under the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) in both the training and the validation data sets.Of the 3882 patients enrolled in GOG 182, 1480 had complete clinical data available for the analysis. The training data set consisted of 1007 patients (234 with R0) while the validation set was comprised of 473 patients (122 with R0). The reduced multivariable regression model demonstrated several variables predictive of R0 at cytoreduction: Disease Score (DS) ( < 0.001), stage ( = 0.009), CA125 ( < 0.001), ascites ( < 0.001), and stage-age interaction ( = 0.01). Applying the prediction model to the validation data resulted in an AUC of 0.73 (0.67 to 0.78, 95% CI). Inclusion of DS enhanced the model performance to an AUC of 0.83 (0.79 to 0.88, 95% CI).We developed and validated a prediction model for R0 that offers improved performance over previously reported models for prediction of residual disease. The performance of the prediction model suggests additional factors (i.e. imaging, molecular profiling, etc.) should be explored in the future for a more clinically actionable tool

Fatal outcome of a hypersensitivity reaction to paclitaxel: a critical review of premedication regimens

Hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) to paclitaxel are frequently encountered in patients receiving this antitumour drug. Administration of histamine H1- and H2-receptor antagonists and corticosteroids has been shown to reduce significantly the risk of developing an HSR in patients receiving taxanes. In this case report, we describe the fatal outcome of an HSR in a patient receiving paclitaxel despite short-course premedication. The level of evidence supporting the short-course i.v. premedication schedule is challenged, as it is not compatible with the pharmacokinetic properties of dexamethasone

Designs for clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes based on stopping guidelines for lack of benefit

<p>Abstract</p> <p>background</p> <p>The pace of novel medical treatments and approaches to therapy has accelerated in recent years. Unfortunately, many potential therapeutic advances do not fulfil their promise when subjected to randomized controlled trials. It is therefore highly desirable to speed up the process of evaluating new treatment options, particularly in phase II and phase III trials. To help realize such an aim, in 2003, Royston and colleagues proposed a class of multi-arm, two-stage trial designs intended to eliminate poorly performing contenders at a first stage (point in time). Only treatments showing a predefined degree of advantage against a control treatment were allowed through to a second stage. Arms that survived the first-stage comparison on an intermediate outcome measure entered a second stage of patient accrual, culminating in comparisons against control on the definitive outcome measure. The intermediate outcome is typically on the causal pathway to the definitive outcome (i.e. the features that cause an intermediate event also tend to cause a definitive event), an example in cancer being progression-free and overall survival. Although the 2003 paper alluded to multi-arm trials, most of the essential design features concerned only two-arm trials. Here, we extend the two-arm designs to allow an arbitrary number of stages, thereby increasing flexibility by building in several 'looks' at the accumulating data. Such trials can terminate at any of the intermediate stages or the final stage.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We describe the trial design and the mathematics required to obtain the timing of the 'looks' and the overall significance level and power of the design. We support our results by extensive simulation studies. As an example, we discuss the design of the STAMPEDE trial in prostate cancer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mathematical results on significance level and power are confirmed by the computer simulations. Our approach compares favourably with methodology based on beta spending functions and on monitoring only a primary outcome measure for lack of benefit of the new treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The new designs are practical and are supported by theory. They hold considerable promise for speeding up the evaluation of new treatments in phase II and III trials.</p

Using Site Visits to Strengthen Collaboration

The SUMMIT-P project is a multi-institutional endeavor to leverage interdisciplinary collaboration in order to improve the teaching of undergraduate mathematics courses in the first two years of college. One goal of this work is to establish collaborative communities among the institutions involved. As part of the project, institutions visit one another on site visits that are structured according to a common protocol. The site visits have been valuable to the project. Participating institutions report the exchange of actionable ideas and feedback; members of the grant leadership team have used the site visits to direct the overall project, and evaluators have refined questions and identified trends that will help their assessment of the project. At a deeper level, the site visits have created a strong sense of community among those involved in every aspect of the SUMMIT-P project