159 research outputs found

    Reliability and performance evaluation of systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems

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    A method for evaluating the reliability of real-time systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems is proposed and investigated. It is a three stage technique that addresses the impact of knowledge-base uncertainties on the performance of expert systems. In the first stage, a Markov reliability model of the system is developed which identifies the key performance parameters of the expert system. In the second stage, the evaluation method is used to determine the values of the expert system's key performance parameters. The performance parameters can be evaluated directly by using a probabilistic model of uncertainties in the knowledge-base or by using sensitivity analyses. In the third and final state, the performance parameters of the expert system are combined with performance parameters for other system components and subsystems to evaluate the reliability and performance of the complete system. The evaluation method is demonstrated in the context of a simple expert system used to supervise the performances of an FDI algorithm associated with an aircraft longitudinal flight-control system

    Discovery of a Dynamical Cold Point in the Heart of the Sagittarius dSph Galaxy with Observations from the APOGEE Project

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    The dynamics of the core of the Sagittarius (Sgr) dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxy are explored using high-resolution (R~22,500), H-band, near-infrared spectra of over 1,000 giant stars in the central 3 deg^2 of the system, of which 328 are identified as Sgr members. These data, among some of the earliest observations from the SDSS-III/Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and the largest published sample of high resolution Sgr dSph spectra to date, reveal a distinct gradient in the velocity dispersion of Sgr from 11-14 km/s for radii >0.8 degrees from center to a dynamical cold point of 8 km/s in the Sgr center --- a trend differing from that found in previous kinematical analyses of Sgr over larger scales that suggest a more or less flat dispersion profile at these radii. Well-fitting mass models with either cored and cusped dark matter distributions can be found to match the kinematical results, although the cored profile succeeds with significantly more isotropic stellar orbits than required for a cusped profile. It is unlikely that the cold point reflects an unusual mass distribution. The dispersion gradient may arise from variations in the mixture of populations with distinct kinematics within the dSph; this explanation is suggested (e.g., by detection of a metallicity gradient across similar radii), but not confirmed, by the present data. Despite these remaining uncertainties about their interpretation, these early test data (including some from instrument commissioning) demonstrate APOGEE's usefulness for precision dynamical studies, even for fields observed at extreme airmasses.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figure

    The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment: First Detection of High Velocity Milky Way Bar Stars

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    Commissioning observations with the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III, have produced radial velocities (RVs) for ~4700 K/M-giant stars in the Milky Way bulge. These high-resolution (R \sim 22,500), high-S/N (>100 per resolution element), near-infrared (1.51-1.70 um; NIR) spectra provide accurate RVs (epsilon_v~0.2 km/s) for the sample of stars in 18 Galactic bulge fields spanning -1-32 deg. This represents the largest NIR high-resolution spectroscopic sample of giant stars ever assembled in this region of the Galaxy. A cold (sigma_v~30 km/s), high-velocity peak (V_GSR \sim +200 km/s) is found to comprise a significant fraction (~10%) of stars in many of these fields. These high RVs have not been detected in previous MW surveys and are not expected for a simple, circularly rotating disk. Preliminary distance estimates rule out an origin from the background Sagittarius tidal stream or a new stream in the MW disk. Comparison to various Galactic models suggests that these high RVs are best explained by stars in orbits of the Galactic bar potential, although some observational features remain unexplained.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

    Diarrhea incidence in low- and middle-income countries in 1990 and 2010: a systematic review

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diarrhea is recognized as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age in low- and middle-income countries yet updated estimates of diarrhea incidence by age for these countries are greatly needed. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify cohort studies that sought to quantify diarrhea incidence among any age group of children 0-59 mo of age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used the Expectation-Maximization algorithm as a part of a two-stage regression model to handle diverse age data and overall incidence rate variation by study to generate country specific incidence rates for low- and middle-income countries for 1990 and 2010. We then calculated regional incidence rates and uncertainty ranges using the bootstrap method, and estimated the total number of episodes for children 0-59 mo of age in 1990 and 2010.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We estimate that incidence has declined from 3.4 episodes/child year in 1990 to 2.9 episodes/child year in 2010. As was the case previously, incidence rates are highest among infants 6-11 mo of age; 4.5 episodes/child year in 2010. Among these 139 countries there were nearly 1.9 billion episodes of childhood diarrhea in 1990 and nearly 1.7 billion episodes in 2010.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although our results indicate that diarrhea incidence rates may be declining slightly, the total burden on the health of each child due to multiple episodes per year is tremendous and additional funds are needed to improve both prevention and treatment practices in low- and middle-income countries.</p

    Seasonal changes in dissolved organic matter composition in a Patagonian fjord affected by glacier melt inputs

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    Biogeochemical processes in fjords are likely affected by changes in surrounding glacier cover but very little is known about how meltwater directly influences dissolved organic matter (DOM) in fjords. Moreover, the data available are restricted to a handful of northern hemisphere sites. Here we analyze seasonal and spatial variation in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and DOM composition (spectrofluorescence, ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry) in Baker-Martinez Fjord, Chilean Patagonia (48°S), to infer the impacts of rapid regional deglaciation on fjord DOM. We show that surface layer DOC concentrations do not vary significantly between seasons, but DOM composition is sensitive to differences in riverine inputs. In summer, higher protein-like fluorescence reflects increased glacial meltwater inputs, whilst molecular level data show weaker influence from marine DOM due to more intense stratification. We postulate that the shifting seasonal balance of riverine and marine waters affects the supply of biolabile peptides and organic nitrogen cycling in the surface layer. Trends in DOM composition with increasing salinity are consistent with patterns in estuaries (i.e. preferential removal of aromatic compounds and increasing relative contribution of unsaturated and heteroatom-rich DOM from marine sources). Preliminary estimates also suggest that at least 10 of the annual organic carbon stock in this fjord is supplied by the four largest, glacially fed rivers and that these inputs are dominated by dissolved (84) over particulate organic carbon. Riverine DOC may therefore be an important carbon subsidy to bacterial communities in the inner fjord. The overall findings highlight the biogeochemical sensitivity of a Patagonian fjord to changes in glacier melt input, which likely has relevance for other glaciated fjords in a warming climate
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