Deriving a practical analytical-probabilistic method to size flood routing reservoirs

In the engineering practice routing reservoir sizing is commonly performed by using the design storm method, although its effectiveness has been debated for a long time. Conversely, continuous simulations and direct statistical analyses of recorded hydrographs are considered more reliable and comprehensive, but are indeed complex or seldom practicable. In this paper a handier tool is provided by the analytical-probabilistic approach to construct probability functions of peak discharges issuing from natural watersheds or routed through on-line and off-line reservoirs. A simplified routing scheme and a rainfall-runoff model based on a few essential hydrological parameters were implemented. To validate the proposed design methodology, on-line and off-line routing reservoirs were firstly sized by means of a conventional design storm method for a test watershed located in northern Italy. Their routing efficiencies were then estimated by both analytical-probabilistic models and benchmarking continuous simulations. Bearing in mind practical design purposes, adopted models evidenced a satisfactory consistency

Hydrological aspects of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme: finding from field experiments and simulations

Proc. International Conference on Alpine Metorology, Zagreb 23-27 Ma

Potential climate change effects on the meteorological forcing and the design efficiency of urban drainage systems

Urban drainage systems design and management are strictly connected to meteorological forcing. For design purposes synthetic forms (e.g. depth duration frequency curves) are usually adopted to represent the meteorological solicitation, while a stochastic representation could be more promptly used to investigate the effects of potential climate change both on the design and on the efficiency of urban drainage devices. A simplified semi-probabilistic approach, relying on simple models of the stochastic rainfall process and of the rainfall-runoff (hydrological) transformation, is expected to be a sound tool. Since the rainfall process is described through the definition of three random variables and their probability distribution, the main advantage is the possibility of changing one, two or more characteristics of the rainfall model at a time. The effect of the change can then be easily evaluated through the application of the hydrological model. The semi-probabilistic approach is applied to study some aspects of the drainage system design for locations in the Italian territory. Potential effects of climate change on fictitious urban basins are evaluated through a rainfall stochastic model calibrated on the basis of long series observations recorded at site. Precipitation climate change scenarios were defined on the basis of both international climate studies report and local meteorological observation analysis. The effects on the urban drainage system are evaluated with respect to specific urban drainage devices and the efficiency of the design procedure in the hypothesis of climate change is finally discussed

Multivariate statistical analysis of flood variables by copulas: two italian case studies

Multivariate statistics are important to determine the flood hydrograph for the design of hydraulic structures and for the hydraulic risk assessment. In the last decade, the copula approach has been investigated in hydrological practice to assess the design flood hydrograph in terms of flood peak, volume and duration. In this paper, the copula approach is exploited to perform pair analyses of these three random variables for two Italian watersheds, in the Apennine and the Alps respectively. The criterion to separate continuous flow series into independent events is discussed along with its implications on the dependence structure. The goodness-of-fits of the proposed copulas are then assessed by non-parametric tests. Marginal distributions to derive joint distributions are briefly suggested. The possibility of generating flood events according to the proposed model and potential applications to hydraulic structure design and flood management are finally examined

Diffuse radio sources in the cluster of galaxies Abell 548b

We report extensive VLA and ATCA observations of the two diffuse radio sources in the cluster of galaxies Abell 548b, which confirm their classification as relics. The two relics (named A and B) show similar flux density, extent, shape, polarization and spectral index and are located at projected distances of about 430 and 500 kpc from the cluster center, on the same side of the cluster's X-ray peak. On the basis of spectral indices of discrete radio sources embedded within the diffuse features, we have attempted to distinguish emission peaks of the diffuse sources from unrelated sources. We have found that both relics, in particular the B-relic, show possible fine structure, when observed at high resolution. Another diffuse source (named C) is detected close in projection to the cluster center. High-resolution images show that it contains two discrete radio sources and a diffuse component, which might be a candidate for a small relic source. The nature and properties of the diffuse radio sources are discussed. We conclude that they are likely related to the merger activity in the cluster.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 11 pages, 7 figures. Some figures are degraded to reduce their size. A version with high resolution images is available at http://www.ira.inaf.it/~lferetti/OUTGOING/papA548b.ps.g

Soil erosion evaluation in a small watershed in Brazil through 137 Cs fallout redistribution analysis and conventional models

An investigation of rates and patterns of soil erosion on agricultural land cultivated with sugarcane was undert a ken using the 137Cs technique, USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) and WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model. The study was carried out on a representative catchment of a small watershed of the Piracicaba river basin, State of São Paulo, Brazil, called Ceveiro watershed, well known for its severe soil degradation caused by erosion. The results from the 137Cs technique indicate that most part of the studied area (94%) are eroded at erosion rates that go up to 59 Mg ha-1 y-1, with a weighted average rate of 23 Mg ha-1 y-1 . The weighted average rate of infield deposition and sediment retrieval that occurs in only 6% of the total area was estimated to be around 12 Mg ha-1 y-1 . These values led to very high net soil loss from the field, with rates of the order of 21 Mg ha-1 y-1 , which represents a sediment delive ry ratio of 97%. A linear correlation between soil erosion rate estimated by the 137Cs technique and the amount of available K in the top soil layer (0-20 cm) was observed. Based on this correlation the estimated amounts of net and gross K loss in the grid area due to soil erosion were of 0.2 and 1.52 kg ha-1 y-1, respectively. The erosion rate estimated by USLE was 39 Mg ha-1 y-1 and by WEPP model 16.5 Mg ha-1 y-1 with a sediment delivery of 12.4 Mg ha-1 y-1 (75%). The results are a confirmation that the soil conservation practices adopted in the area are very poor and can explain the high siltation level of water reservoirs in the watershed

Dealing with uncertainty in the probability of overtopping of a flood mitigation dam

In recent years, copula multivariate functions were used to model, probabilistically, the most important variables of flood events: discharge peak, flood volume and duration. However, in most of the cases, the sampling uncertainty, from which small-sized samples suffer, is neglected. In this paper, considering a real reservoir controlled by a dam as a case study, we apply a structure-based approach to estimate the probability of reaching specific reservoir levels, taking into account the key components of an event (flood peak, volume, hydrograph shape) and of the reservoir (rating curve, volume–water depth relation). Additionally, we improve information about the peaks from historical data and reports through a Bayesian framework, allowing the incorporation of supplementary knowledge from different sources and its associated error. As it is seen here, the extra information can result in a very different inferred parameter set and consequently this is reflected as a strong variability of the reservoir level, associated with a given return period. Most importantly, the sampling uncertainty is accounted for in both cases (single-site and multi-site with historical information scenarios), and Monte Carlo confidence intervals for the maximum water level are calculated. It is shown that water levels of specific return periods in a lot of cases overlap, thus making risk assessment, without providing confidence intervals, deceiving

Antiulcerogenic and antioxidant activities of leaf extract of Syzygium jambos (L.) Alston (Myrtaceae)

Syzygium jambos (L.) Alston, Myrtaceae, é empregado na medicina popular como digestivo e antiinflamatório. A triagem fitoquímica da droga pulverizada (folhas) indicou a presença de flavonóides, taninos e óleo volátil. O extrato hidroetanólico a 70% das folhas de S. jambos foi preparado por percolação e liofilizado. O conteúdo de taninos das folhas e do extrato foi calculado, respectivamente, em 21,9% e 43,3%. O teor de flavonóides foi de 0,6% (folhas) e 1,2% (extrato). A administração oral prévia do extrato (400 mg/kg) a ratos Wistar reduziu significativamente as lesões gástricas induzidas por etanol acidificado. No modelo de úlcera subcrônica, com indução de lesão gástrica utilizando ácido acético a 30%, o tratamento com o extrato (400 mg/kg) não apresentou resultado significativo. A atividade antioxidante do extrato foi avaliada através dos modelos de lipoperoxidação e de medida de capacidade seqüestrante de radicais DPPH. Os valores obtidos de Q1/2 (MDA) e CE50 (DPPH) foram, respectivamente, 0,17 μg/mL e 5,68 μg/mL.Syzygium jambos (L.) Alston, Myrtaceae, is commonly employed in folk medicine as digestive and anti-inflammatory. Phytochemical screening of the powdered dried leaves indicates the presence of flavonoids, tannins and essential oil. Hydroethanol extracts (70%) were prepared by percolation and freeze-drying. The tannin content of dried leaves and extract was, respectively, 21.9% and 43.3%. The flavonoid content was 0.6% (dried leaves) and 1.2% (extract). Previous oral administration of S. jambos leaves extract (400 mg/kg) to rats reduced significantly gastric injury induced by HCl/ethanol. At the subcronic ulcer model by induction with 30% acetic acid the results were not significant. In vitro antioxidant activity of S. jambos extract was evaluated by malondialdehyde (MDA) and DPPH free radical method. The Q1/2 for MDA assay was 0.17 μg/mL and the EC50 for DPPH assay was 5.68 μg/mL