Advances in behavioral genetics modeling using Mplus: Applications of factor mixture modeling to twin data.

This article discusses new latent variable techniques developed by the authors. As an illustration, a new factor mixture model is applied to the monozygotic-dizygotic twin analysis of binary items measuring alcohol-use disorder. In this model, heritability is simultaneously studied with respect to latent class membership and within-class severity dimensions. Different latent classes of individuals are allowed to have different heritability for the severity dimensions. The factor mixture approach appears to have great potential for the genetic analyses of heterogeneous populations. Generalizations for longitudinal data are also outlined

Psychological distress in mid-life: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts

BACKGROUND: This paper addresses the levels of psychological distress experienced at age 42 years by men and women born in 1958 and 1970. Comparing these cohorts born 12 years apart, we ask whether psychological distress has increased, and, if so, whether this increase can be explained by differences in their childhood conditions. METHOD: Data were utilized from two well-known population-based birth cohorts, the National Child Development Study and the 1970 British Cohort Study. Latent variable models and causal mediation methods were employed. RESULTS: After establishing the measurement equivalence of psychological distress in the two cohorts we found that men and women born in 1970 reported higher levels of psychological distress compared with those born in 1958. These differences were more pronounced in men (b = 0.314, 95% confidence interval 0.252-0.375), with the magnitude of the effect being twice as strong compared with women (b = 0.147, 95% confidence interval 0.076-0.218). The effect of all hypothesized early-life mediators in explaining these differences was modest. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings have implications for public health policy, indicating a higher average level of psychological distress among a cohort born in 1970 compared with a generation born 12 years earlier. Due to increases in life expectancy, more recently born cohorts are expected to live longer, which implies - if such differences persist - that they are likely to spend more years with mental health-related morbidity compared with earlier-born cohorts

Estimation of health effects of prenatal methylmercury exposure using structural equation models

BACKGROUND: Observational studies in epidemiology always involve concerns regarding validity, especially measurement error, confounding, missing data, and other problems that may affect the study outcomes. Widely used standard statistical techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, may to some extent adjust for these shortcomings. However, structural equations may incorporate most of these considerations, thereby providing overall adjusted estimations of associations. This approach was used in a large epidemiological data set from a prospective study of developmental methyl-mercury toxicity. RESULTS: Structural equation models were developed for assessment of the association between biomarkers of prenatal mercury exposure and neuropsychological test scores in 7 year old children. Eleven neurobehavioral outcomes were grouped into motor function and verbally mediated function. Adjustment for local dependence and item bias was necessary for a satisfactory fit of the model, but had little impact on the estimated mercury effects. The mercury effect on the two latent neurobehavioral functions was similar to the strongest effects seen for individual test scores of motor function and verbal skills. Adjustment for contaminant exposure to poly chlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) changed the estimates only marginally, but the mercury effect could be reduced to non-significance by assuming a large measurement error for the PCB biomarker. CONCLUSIONS: The structural equation analysis allows correction for measurement error in exposure variables, incorporation of multiple outcomes and incomplete cases. This approach therefore deserves to be applied more frequently in the analysis of complex epidemiological data sets

微細CMOSデバイスの信頼性モデリングの研究

修士論

Effective elements of cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis: results of a novel type of subgroup analysis based on principal stratification

Background. Meta-analyses show that cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis (CBT-P) improves distressing positive symptoms. However, it is a complex intervention involving a range of techniques. No previous study has assessed the delivery of the different elements of treatment and their effect on outcome. Our aim was to assess the differential effect of type of treatment delivered on the effectiveness of CBT-P, using novel statistical methodology. Method. The Psychological Prevention of Relapse in Psychosis (PRP) trial was a multi-centre randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compared CBT-P with treatment as usual (TAU). Therapy was manualized, and detailed evaluations of therapy delivery and client engagement were made. Follow-up assessments were made at 12 and 24 months. In a planned analysis, we applied principal stratification (involving structural equation modelling with finite mixtures) to estimate intention-to-treat (ITT) effects for subgroups of participants, defined by qualitative and quantitative differences in receipt of therapy, while maintaining the constraints of randomization. Results. Consistent delivery of full therapy, including specific cognitive and behavioural techniques, was associated with clinically and statistically significant increases in months in remission, and decreases in psychotic and affective symptoms. Delivery of partial therapy involving engagement and assessment was not effective. Conclusions. Our analyses suggest that CBT-P is of significant benefit on multiple outcomes to patients able to engage in the full range of therapy procedures. The novel statistical methods illustrated in this report have general application to the evaluation of heterogeneity in the effects of treatment

Updating existing emotional memories involves the frontopolar/orbitofrontal cortex in ways that acquiring new emotional memories does not

In life, we must often learn new associations to people, places, or things we already know. The current fMRI study investigated the neural mechanisms underlying emotional memory updating. Nineteen participants first viewed negative and neutral pictures and learned associations between those pictures and other neutral stimuli, such as neutral objects and encoding tasks. This initial learning phase was followed by a memory updating phase, during which participants learned picture-location associations for old pictures (i.e., pictures previously associated with other neutral stimuli) and new pictures (i.e., pictures not seen in the first phase). There was greater frontopolar/orbito-frontal (OFC) activity when people learned picture–location associations for old negative pictures than for new negative pictures, but frontopolar OFC activity did not significantly differ during learning locations of old versus new neutral pictures. In addition, frontopolar activity was more negatively correlated with the amygdala when participants learned picture–location associations for old negative pictures than for new negative or old neutral pictures. Past studies revealed that the frontopolar OFC allows for updating the affective values of stimuli in reversal learning or extinction of conditioning [e.g., Izquierdo, A., & Murray, E. A. Opposing effects of amygdala and orbital PFC lesions on the extinction of instrumental responding in macaque monkeys. European Journal of Neuroscience, 22, 2341–2346, 2005]; our findings suggest that it plays a more general role in updating associations to emotional stimuli

Showing Their True Colors? How EU Flag Display Affects Perceptions of Party Elites’ European Attachment

Evidence suggests that incidental national flag exposure activates nationalistic feelings and that incidental exposure to the EU flag can affect citizen attachments to Europe. However, we know little about what inferences citizens make based on the EU flag when they see it displayed by parties in an electoral context. To test the expectation that this display affects citizens’ evaluations of party elites’ EU attachment, we conducted a large-scale experiment embedded in a Swedish survey in which respondents were exposed to communications from one of the two main Swedish parties, containing or not containing the image of the flag. We find that simple visual display does little to move perceptions. However, if citizens perceive that a particular party displayed the flag, then they are more likely to evaluate its party elites as more attached to Europe

The role of pre-school quality in promoting resilience in the cognitive development of young children

The study reported here investigates the role of pre-school education as a protective factor in the development of children who are at risk due to environmental and individual factors. This investigation builds upon earlier research by examining different kinds of 'quality' in early education and tests the hypothesis that pre-schools of high quality can moderate the impacts of risks upon cognitive development. Cognitive development was measured in 2857 English pre-schoolers at 36 and 58 months of age, together with 22 individual risks to children's development, and assessments were made of the quality of their pre-school provision. Multilevel Structural Equation Modelling revealed that: the global quality of pre-school can moderate the effects of familial risk (such as poverty); the relationships between staff and children can moderate the effects of child level risk (such as low birth weight); and the specific quality of curricular provision can moderate the effects of both. Policy makers need to take quality into account in their efforts to promote resilience in young 'at risk' children through early childhood services