Sources, fate, and pathways of Leeuwin Current water in the Indian Ocean and Great Australian Bight: A Lagrangian study in an eddy-resolving ocean model

The Leeuwin Current is the dominant circulation feature in the eastern Indian Ocean, transporting tropical and subtropical water southward. While it is known that the Leeuwin Current draws its water from a multitude of sources, existing Indian Ocean circulation schematics have never quantified the fluxes of tropical and subtropical source water flowing into the Leeuwin Current. This paper uses virtual Lagrangian particles to quantify the transport of these sources along the Leeuwin Current's mean pathway. Here the pathways and exchange of Leeuwin Current source waters across six coastally bound sectors on the south-west Australian coast are analyzed. This constitutes the first quantitative assessment of Leeuwin Current pathways within an offline, 50 year integration time, eddy-resolving global ocean model simulation. Along the Leeuwin Current's pathway, we find a mean poleward transport of 3.7 Sv in which the tropical sources account for 60-78% of the transport. While the net transport is small, we see large transports flowing in and out of all the offshore boundaries of the Leeuwin Current sectors. Along the Leeuwin Current's pathway, we find that water from the Indonesian Throughflow contributes 50-66% of the seasonal signal. By applying conditions on the routes particles take entering the Leeuwin Current, we find particles are more likely to travel offshore north of 30°S, while south of 30°S, particles are more likely to continue downstream. We find a 0.2 Sv pathway of water from the Leeuwin Current's source regions, flowing through the entire Leeuwin Current pathway into the Great Australian Bight

The present and future system for measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport

of the global combined atmosphere-ocean heat flux and so is important for the mean climate of the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere. This meridional heat flux is accomplished by both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and by basin-wide horizontal gyre circulations. In the North Atlantic subtropical latitudes the AMOC dominates the meridional heat flux, while in subpolar latitudes and in the subtropical South Atlantic the gyre circulations are also important. Climate models suggest the AMOC will slow over the coming decades as the earth warms, causing widespread cooling in the Northern hemisphere and additional sea-level rise. Monitoring systems for selected components of the AMOC have been in place in some areas for decades, nevertheless the present observational network provides only a partial view of the AMOC, and does not unambiguously resolve the full variability of the circulation. Additional observations, building on existing measurements, are required to more completely quantify the Atlantic meridional heat transport. A basin-wide monitoring array along 26.5°N has been continuously measuring the strength and vertical structure of the AMOC and meridional heat transport since March 31, 2004. The array has demonstrated its ability to observe the AMOC variability at that latitude and also a variety of surprising variability that will require substantially longer time series to understand fully. Here we propose monitoring the Atlantic meridional heat transport throughout the Atlantic at selected critical latitudes that have already been identified as regions of interest for the study of deep water formation and the strength of the subpolar gyre, transport variability of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) as well as the upper limb of the AMOC, and inter-ocean and intrabasin exchanges with the ultimate goal of determining regional and global controls for the AMOC in the North and South Atlantic Oceans. These new arrays will continuously measure the full depth, basin-wide or choke-point circulation and heat transport at a number of latitudes, to establish the dynamics and variability at each latitude and then their meridional connectivity. Modeling studies indicate that adaptations of the 26.5°N type of array may provide successful AMOC monitoring at other latitudes. However, further analysis and the development of new technologies will be needed to optimize cost effective systems for providing long term monitoring and data recovery at climate time scales. These arrays will provide benchmark observations of the AMOC that are fundamental for assimilation, initialization, and the verification of coupled hindcast/forecast climate models

Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood

Over the last 40 years (1980–2020), 159 people died in inland floods in Germany. The flood of 2021 caused 190 flood fatalities in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley. We investigate what made this event so deadly in order to help improve flood risk management and prevent future fatalities. A comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing the occurrence of fatalities is carried out on the basis of the death investigation files of the public prosecutor's office. This unprecedented flash flood was characterised by high water levels and high flow velocities. The extent of inundation in 2021 far exceeded the official hazard map for the extreme flood scenario. Additionally, early warning and evacuation were inadequate, so many people were surprised by the flash flood. Of the total fatalities, 75 % occurred outside of the mapped hazard zones. Particularly dangerous places were campsites, cellars and basement flats, but many people died on the ground floor (37 %) or outside on the street (18 %). The elderly above 60 years of age (78 %) and those with mobility or cognitive impairments (16 %) were particularly vulnerable. No gender-specific differences in vulnerability were observed. Thus, the main causes for the exceptionally high number of fatalities were the extreme severity of the flood and its underestimation by the population and authorities, as well as inadequate early warning and evacuation. Consequently, public understanding of the particular danger posed by flash floods must be improved, as must the development and presentation of worst-case scenarios in hazard maps. Additionally, impact forecasting can significantly improve emergency management of such unprecedented floods. Specific recommendations for disaster management are (1) that in the event of such extreme flash floods, the warning messages must focus on saving human lives – i.e. those at risk must be advised to move to safe places, e.g. to the upper floors, instead of trying to save belongings – and (2) evacuations must be initiated in good time, especially where flooding of the ground floor with high water levels is to be expected, paying particular attention to the safety of the elderly and people with limited mobility.</p

Improved simulation of Antarctic sea ice due to the radiative effects of falling snow

Southern Ocean sea-ice cover exerts critical control on local albedo and Antarctic precipitation, but simulated Antarctic sea-ice concentration commonly disagrees with observations. Here we show that the radiative effects of precipitating ice (falling snow) contribute substantially to this discrepancy. Many models exclude these radiative effects, so they underestimate both shortwave albedo and downward longwave radiation. Using two simulations with the climate model CESM1, we show that including falling-snow radiative effects improves the simulations relative to cloud properties from CloudSat-CALIPSO, radiation from CERES-EBAF and sea-ice concentration from passive microwave sensors. From 50–70°S, the simulated sea-ice-area bias is reduced by 2.12 × 106 km2 (55%) in winter and by 1.17 × 106 km2 (39%) in summer, mainly because increased wintertime longwave heating restricts sea-ice growth and so reduces summer albedo. Improved Antarctic sea-ice simulations will increase confidence in projected Antarctic sea level contributions and changes in global warming driven by long-term changes in Southern Ocean feedbacks

Counteracting the climate effects of volcanic eruptions using short-lived greenhouse gases

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges

Convection above the Labrador continental slope

The Labrador Sea is one of the few regions of the World Ocean where deep convection takes place. Several moorings across the Labrador continental slope just north of Hamilton Bank show that convection does take place within the Labrador Current. Mixing above the lower Labrador slope is facilitated by the onshore along-isopycnal intrusions of low-potential-vorticity eddies that weaken the stratification, combined with baroclinic instability that sustains slanted mixing while restratifying the water column through horizontal fluxes. Above the shelf break, the Irminger seawater core is displaced onshore while the stratification weakens with the increase in isopycnal slope. The change in stratification is partially due to the onshore shift of the “classical” Labrador Current, baroclinic instability, and possibly slantwise convection

Opportunities and Challenges of Magnetic Seeded Filtration in Multidimensional Fractionation

This study examines the general applicability of magnetic seeded filtration (MFS) for the fractionation of complex particulate systems by multiple particle features. Experimental studies on a laboratory scale showed that especially the electrostatic interactions govern the separation process. Furthermore, a clear size dependency could be shown, as the separation efficiency decreases with increasing size of target particles. Since MSF is both surface‐ and size‐dependent, it is generally applicable in a multidimensional fractionation. Finally, the challenges to be overcome are addressed as well