Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013: a country earmarked for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance. RESULTS All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of <Nu 1,500; HH located one to three hours walking distance to a health centre compared to being located closer to a health centre; a reported lack of knowledge as to what to do in event of LLINs being torn; and keeping LLINs in a box compared to keeping them hanging in the place of use. Factors associated with use of LLINs for purposes other than the intended use included: income group Nu 1,501-3,000 and HH located one to three hours walking distance from a health centre. CONCLUSIONS There was high coverage of LLINs in the study area with regular use of LLINs throughout the year. LLIN use for purposes other than malaria prevention was low. With high coverage and regular use of LLINs, and a zero prevalence of malaria infection found in historically high-risk communities during the peak malaria season, it appears Bhutan is on course to achieve malaria elimination.We acknowledge Queensland Infectious Disease Unit for providing funds to carry out this study

Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

BACKGROUND Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. METHODS Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June-September and the preceding January-February. RESULTS Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June-September and the preceding January-February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. CONCLUSION Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January-February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January-February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.This project was supported by a University of Queensland New Research Scientist Start-Up Fund grant. RWS is a Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellow (#079080) and receives additional support from the Wellcome Trust for the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP, http://www.map.ox.ac.uk)

Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

Background: Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Methods: Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009–13 using Spearman’s rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Results: Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0690-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Cost analysis of the development and implementation of a spatial decision support system for malaria elimination in Solomon Islands

BACKGROUND The goal of malaria elimination faces numerous challenges. New tools are required to support the scale up of interventions and improve national malaria programme capacity to conduct detailed surveillance. This study investigates the cost factors influencing the development and implementation of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for malaria elimination in the two elimination provinces of Isabel and Temotu, Solomon Islands. METHOD Financial and economic costs to develop and implement a SDSS were estimated using the Solomon Islands programme's financial records. Using an ingredients approach, verified by stakeholders and operational reports, total costs for each province were quantified. A budget impact sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of variations in standard budgetary components on the costs and to identify potential cost savings. RESULTS A total investment of US$96,046 (2012 constant dollars) was required to develop and implement the SDSS in two provinces (Temotu Province US$ 49,806 and Isabel Province US$46,240). The single largest expense category was for computerized equipment totalling approximately US$ 30,085. Geographical reconnaissance was the most expensive phase of development and implementation, accounting for approximately 62% of total costs. Sensitivity analysis identified different cost factors between the provinces. Reduced equipment costs would deliver a budget saving of approximately 10% in Isabel Province. Combined travel costs represented the greatest influence on the total budget in the more remote Temotu Province. CONCLUSION This study provides the first cost analysis of an operational surveillance tool used specifically for malaria elimination in the South-West Pacific. It is demonstrated that the costs of such a decision support system are driven by specialized equipment and travel expenses. Such factors should be closely scrutinized in future programme budgets to ensure maximum efficiencies are gained and available resources are allocated effectively

Osservazioni sul concetto di oggetto della psicologia

[English]:Remarks on the concept of object of psychology is Richard Avenarius last work and it represents his attempt to establish the fledgling scientific, physiological, experimental psychology on rigorous philosophical basis. With this work the founder of the so-called Empiriocriticism participates to the wide debate on the definition of psychology, along with notable personalities of the time, such as Wilhelm Wundt, Ernst Mach, Oswald Külpe, Hermann Ebbinghaus, Hugo Münsterberg and Edward B. Titchener./ [Italiano]: Le Osservazioni sul concetto di oggetto della psicologia costituiscono l’ultima opera di Richard Avenarius, in cui il fondatore dell’empiriocriticismo presenta il suo tentativo di fondare su basi filosoficamente rigorose la neonata psicologia scientifica di stampo fisiologico-sperimentale. Questo scritto si colloca così all’incrocio di quell’ampio dibattito sulla definizione di psicologia, che sul finire del diciannovesimo secolo vide coinvolte personalità del calibro di Wilhelm Wundt, Ernst Mach, Oswald Külpe, Hermann Ebbinghaus, Hugo Münsterberg ed Edward B. Titchener

Development and evaluation of a spatial decision support system for malaria elimination in Bhutan

BACKGROUND: Bhutan has reduced its malaria incidence significantly in the last 5 years, and is aiming for malaria elimination by 2016. To assist with the management of the Bhutanese malaria elimination programme a spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed. The current study aims to describe SDSS development and evaluate SDSS utility and acceptability through informant interviews. METHODS: The SDSS was developed based on the open-source Quantum geographical information system (QGIS) and piloted to support the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar District. It was subsequently used to support reactive case detection (RACD) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar and two additional sub-districts in Sarpang District. Interviews were conducted to ascertain perceptions on utility and acceptability of 11 informants using the SDSS, including programme and district managers, and field workers. RESULTS: A total of 1502 households with a population of 7165 were enumerated in the four sub-districts, and a total of 3491 LLINs were distributed with one LLIN per 1.7 persons. A total of 279 households representing 728 residents were involved with RACD. Informants considered that the SDSS was an improvement on previous methods for organizing LLIN distribution, IRS and RACD, and could be easily integrated into routine malaria and other vector-borne disease surveillance systems. Informants identified some challenges at the programme and field level, including the need for more skilled personnel to manage the SDSS, and more training to improve the effectiveness of SDSS implementation and use of hardware. CONCLUSIONS: The SDSS was well accepted and informants expected its use to be extended to other malaria reporting districts and other vector-borne diseases. Challenges associated with efficient SDSS use included adequate skills and knowledge, access to training and support, and availability of hardware including computers and global positioning system receivers

Spatial distribution and populations at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are highly prevalent in the Philippines. Mapping the prevalence and high-intensity of STH co-infections can help guide targeted intervention programmes to reduce morbidity, especially among vulnerable school-aged children. In this study, we aimed to predict the spatial distribution of the prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura co-infection and infection intensity classes in the Philippines to identify populations most in need of interventions. METHODS: Data on STH infections from 29,919 individuals during the nationwide parasitological survey in 2005 to 2007 were included in the analysis. To geographically predict the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes, Bayesian multinomial geostatistical models were built including age, sex, environmental variables and a geostatistical random effect. The number of individuals co-infected and belonging to each of the infection intensity classes in 2017 was forecast by combining our predictive prevalence maps with population density maps. RESULTS: Our models showed that school-aged children (5-19 years) are most at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and of moderate/high infection intensity compared to other age groups. We identified target provinces where the likelihood of STH-associated morbidity was highest: Luzon (Bulacan, Benguet, Cavite, Sorsogon, Metropolitan Manila, Pampanga and Rizal), the Visayas (Cebu, Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental), and in Mindanao (Agusan Del Norte, Davao Del Sur, Davao Oriental, Lanao Del Sur, Maguindanao, Misamis Oriental, Sulu and Zamboanga Del Sur). Luzon had the highest estimated number of school-aged children with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections (estimated total 89,400), followed by the Visayas (38,300) and Mindanao (20,200). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided epidemiological evidence to highlight national priority areas for controlling co-infections and high intensity infections in the Philippines. Our maps could assist more geographically targeted interventions to reduce the risk of STH-associated morbidity in the Philippines

Ending Malaria Transmission in the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network (APMEN) Countries: Challenges and the Way Forward

Member countries in the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network (APMEN) are pursuing the global goal of malaria elimination by 2030. Different countries are in various phases of malaria elimination and this review aims to present a compilation of available evidence on the challenges and way forward for malaria elimination in APMEN countries. Malaria transmission in these States is complex. APMEN member countries include the largest populations living in areas of malaria transmission risk outside Africa. They are a global source for spread of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) resistance, include the biggest burden of Plasmodium vivax and zoonotic malaria, and face many geopolitical and socio-economic factors that will challenge malaria elimination efforts. These challenges can be addressed in part through operational research to identify country-specific solutions, making better use of operational data such as through spatial decision support system (SDSS) approaches, strengthening surveillance, and cross-border initiative for coordinated action