Human mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens

Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the dynamics of the outbreak, including pathogen's epidemiological traits (e.g. transmissibility, infectious period and duration of immunity), seasonality, interaction with other circulating strains and hosts' mixing and spatial fragmentation. Here, we study a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model on a metapopulation where individuals are distributed in subpopulations connected via a network of mobility flows. Through extensive numerical simulations, we explore the phase space of pathogen's persistence and map the dynamical regimes of the pathogen following emergence. Our results show that spatial fragmentation and mobility play a key role in the persistence of the disease whose maximum is reached at intermediate mobility values. We describe the occurrence of different phenomena including local extinction and emergence of epidemic waves, and assess the conditions for large scale spreading. Findings are highlighted in reference to previous works and to real scenarios. Our work uncovers the crucial role of hosts' mobility on the ecological dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens, opening the path for further studies on disease ecology in the presence of a complex and heterogeneous environment.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures. Submitted for publicatio

Identificación de los alelos S de incompatibilidad en cerezos silvestres del norte de la península Ibérica: abstract

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Effects of commercial fishing regulations on stranding rates of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus).

Fisheries management actions taken to protect one species can have unintended, and sometimes positive, consequences on other species. For example, regulatory measures to reduce fishing effort in the winter gillnet fishery for spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) off North Carolina (NC) also led to decreases in the number of bycaught bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). This study found that a marked decrease in fishing effort for spiny dogfish in NC also corresponded with a marked decrease in winter stranding rates of bottlenose dolphins with entanglement lesions (P= 0.002). Furthermore, from 1997 through 2002, there was a significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.79; P= 0.0003) between seasonal bycatch estimates of bottlenose dolphins in gill nets and rates of stranded dolphins with entanglement lesions. With this information, stranding thresholds were developed that would enable the detection of those increases in bycatch in near real-time. This approach is valuable because updated bycatch estimates from observer data usually have a time-lag of two or more years. Threshold values could be used to detect increases in stranding rates, triggering managers immediately to direct observer effort to areas of potentially high bycatch or to institute mitigation measures. Thus, observer coverage and stranding investigations can be used in concert for more effective fishery management

Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas

Detailed characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission across different settings can help design less disruptive interventions. We used real-time, privacy-enhanced mobility data in the New York City, NY and Seattle, WA metropolitan areas to build a detailed agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the where, when, and magnitude of transmission events during the pandemic’s first wave. We estimate that only 18% of individuals produce most infections (80%), with about 10% of events that can be considered superspreading events (SSEs). Although mass gatherings present an important risk for SSEs, we estimate that the bulk of transmission occurred in smaller events in settings like workplaces, grocery stores, or food venues. The places most important for transmission change during the pandemic and are different across cities, signaling the large underlying behavioral component underneath them. Our modeling complements case studies and epidemiological data and indicates that real-time tracking of transmission events could help evaluate and define targeted mitigation policies. Copyright © 2022 the Author(s

Bartonella species detection in captive, stranded and free-ranging cetaceans

We present prevalence of Bartonella spp. for multiple cohorts of wild and captive cetaceans. One hundred and six cetaceans including 86 bottlenose dolphins (71 free-ranging, 14 captive in a facility with a dolphin experiencing debility of unknown origin, 1 stranded), 11 striped dolphins, 4 harbor porpoises, 3 Risso's dolphins, 1 dwarf sperm whale and 1 pygmy sperm whale (all stranded) were sampled. Whole blood (n = 95 live animals) and tissues (n = 15 freshly dead animals) were screened by PCR (n = 106 animals), PCR of enrichment cultures (n = 50 animals), and subcultures (n = 50 animals). Bartonella spp. were detected from 17 cetaceans, including 12 by direct extraction PCR of blood or tissues, 6 by PCR of enrichment cultures, and 4 by subculture isolation. Bartonella spp. were more commonly detected from the captive (6/14, 43%) than from free-ranging (2/71, 2.8%) bottlenose dolphins, and were commonly detected from the stranded animals (9/21, 43%; 3/11 striped dolphins, 3/4 harbor porpoises, 2/3 Risso's dolphins, 1/1 pygmy sperm whale, 0/1 dwarf sperm whale, 0/1 bottlenose dolphin). Sequencing identified a Bartonella spp. most similar to B. henselae San Antonio 2 in eight cases (4 bottlenose dolphins, 2 striped dolphins, 2 harbor porpoises), B. henselae Houston 1 in three cases (2 Risso's dolphins, 1 harbor porpoise), and untyped in six cases (4 bottlenose dolphins, 1 striped dolphin, 1 pygmy sperm whale). Although disease causation has not been established, Bartonella species were detected more commonly from cetaceans that were overtly debilitated or were cohabiting in captivity with a debilitated animal than from free-ranging animals. The detection of Bartonella spp. from cetaceans may be of pathophysiological concern

Do pediatricians manage influenza differently than internists?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about how pediatricians or internists manage influenza symptoms. Recent guidelines on antiviral prescribing by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) make almost no distinction between adults and children. Our objective was to describe how pediatricians in two large academic medical institutions manage influenza and compare them to internists.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>At the end of the 2003–4 influenza season, we conducted a cross sectional on-line survey of physician knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding rapid diagnostic testing and use of antiviral therapy for influenza at two large academic medical centers, one in Massachusetts and the other in Texas. We collected data on self-reported demographics, test use, prescribing practices, and beliefs about influenza and anti-influenza drugs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 107 pediatricians and 103 internists completed the survey (response rate of 53%). Compared to internists, pediatricians were more likely to perform rapid testing (74% vs. 47%, p < 0.0001), to use amantadine (88% vs. 48%, p < 0.0001), to restrict their prescribing to high-risk patients (86% vs. 53%, p < 0.0001), and to believe that antiviral therapy could decrease mortality (38% vs. 22%, p = 0.01). Other beliefs about antiviral therapy did not differ statistically between the specialties. Internists were more likely to be unfamiliar with rapid testing or not to have it available.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Pediatricians and internists manage influenza differently. Evidence-based guidelines addressing the specific concerns of each group would be helpful.</p

Strandings as indicators of marine mammal biodiversity and human interactions off the coast of North Carolina

The adjacency of 2 marine biogeographic regions off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina (NC), and the proximity of the Gulf Stream result in a high biodiversity of species from northern and southern provinces and from coastal and pelagic habitats. We examined spatiotemporal patterns of marine mammal strandings and evidence of human interaction for these strandings along NC shorelines and evaluated whether the spatiotemporal patterns and species diversity of the stranded animals reflected published records of populations in NC waters. During the period of 1997–2008, 1847 stranded animals were documented from 1777 reported events. These animals represented 9 families and 34 species that ranged from tropical delphinids to pagophilic seals. This biodiversity is higher than levels observed in other regions. Most strandings were of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) (56%), harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) (14%), and harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) (4%). Overall, strandings of northern species peaked in spring. Bottlenose dolphin strandings peaked in spring and fall. Almost half of the strandings, including southern delphinids, occurred north of Cape Hatteras, on only 30% of NC’s coastline. Most stranded animals that were positive for human interaction showed evidence of having been entangled in fishing gear, particularly bottlenose dolphins, harbor porpoises, short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), harbor seals, and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Spatiotemporal patterns of bottlenose dolphin strandings were similar to ocean gillnet fishing effort. Biodiversity of the animals stranded on the beaches reflected biodiversity in the waters off NC, albeit not always proportional to the relative abundance of species (e.g., Kogia species). Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of strandings can serve as indicators of underlying changes due to anthropogenic or naturally occurring events in the source populations

PMeS: Prediction of Methylation Sites Based on Enhanced Feature Encoding Scheme

Protein methylation is predominantly found on lysine and arginine residues, and carries many important biological functions, including gene regulation and signal transduction. Given their important involvement in gene expression, protein methylation and their regulatory enzymes are implicated in a variety of human disease states such as cancer, coronary heart disease and neurodegenerative disorders. Thus, identification of methylation sites can be very helpful for the drug designs of various related diseases. In this study, we developed a method called PMeS to improve the prediction of protein methylation sites based on an enhanced feature encoding scheme and support vector machine. The enhanced feature encoding scheme was composed of the sparse property coding, normalized van der Waals volume, position weight amino acid composition and accessible surface area. The PMeS achieved a promising performance with a sensitivity of 92.45%, a specificity of 93.18%, an accuracy of 92.82% and a Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 85.69% for arginine as well as a sensitivity of 84.38%, a specificity of 93.94%, an accuracy of 89.16% and a Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 78.68% for lysine in 10-fold cross validation. Compared with other existing methods, the PMeS provides better predictive performance and greater robustness. It can be anticipated that the PMeS might be useful to guide future experiments needed to identify potential methylation sites in proteins of interest. The online service is available at http://bioinfo.ncu.edu.cn/inquiries_PMeS.aspx

The Multisite Violence Prevention Project: Impact of a Universal School-Based Violence Prevention Program on Social-Cognitive Outcomes

This study evaluated the impact of a universal school-based violence prevention program on social-cognitive factors associated with aggression and nonviolent behavior in early adolescence. The effects of the universal intervention were evaluated within the context of a design in which two cohorts of students at 37 schools from four sites (N=5,581) were randomized to four conditions: (a) a universal intervention that involved implementing a student curriculum and teacher training with sixth grade students and teachers; (b) a selective intervention in which a family intervention was implemented with a subset of sixth grade students exhibiting high levels of aggression and social influence; (c) a combined intervention condition; and (d) a no-intervention control condition. Short-term and long-term (i.e., 2-year post-intervention) universal intervention effects on social-cognitive factors targeted by the intervention varied as a function of students' pre-intervention level of risk. High-risk students benefited from the intervention in terms of decreases in beliefs and attitudes supporting aggression, and increases in self-efficacy, beliefs and attitudes supporting nonviolent behavior. Effects on low-risk students were in the opposite direction. The differential pattern of intervention effects for low- and high-risk students may account for the absence of main effects in many previous evaluations of universal interventions for middle school youth. These findings have important research and policy implications for efforts to develop effective violence prevention programs

Assessment of Osteoarthritis Candidate Genes in a Meta-Analysis of Nine Genome-Wide Association Studies

Objective To assess candidate genes for association with osteoarthritis (OA) and identify promising genetic factors and, secondarily, to assess the candidate gene approach in OA. Methods A total of 199 candidate genes for association with OA were identified using Human Genome Epidemiology (HuGE) Navigator. All of their single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with an allele frequency of >5% were assessed by fixed-effects meta-analysis of 9 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that included 5,636 patients with knee OA and 16,972 control subjects and 4,349 patients with hip OA and 17,836 control subjects of European ancestry. An additional 5,921 individuals were genotyped for significantly associated SNPs in the meta-analysis. After correction for the number of independent tests, P values less than 1.58 × 10−5 were considered significant. Results SNPs at only 2 of the 199 candidate genes (COL11A1 and VEGF) were associated with OA in the meta-analysis. Two SNPs in COL11A1 showed association with hip OA in the combined analysis: rs4907986 (P = 1.29 × 10−5, odds ratio [OR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.06−1.17) and rs1241164 (P = 1.47 × 10−5, OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74−0.89). The sex-stratified analysis also showed association of COL11A1 SNP rs4908291 in women (P = 1.29 × 10−5, OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82−0.92); this SNP showed linkage disequilibrium with rs4907986. A single SNP of VEGF, rs833058, showed association with hip OA in men (P = 1.35 × 10−5, OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.79−0.91). After additional samples were genotyped, association at one of the COL11A1 signals was reinforced, whereas association at VEGF was slightly weakened. Conclusion Two candidate genes, COL11A1 and VEGF, were significantly associated with OA in this focused meta-analysis. The remaining candidate genes were not associated