224 research outputs found

    Mean Square Error of Prediction in the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Claims Reserving Method

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    The prediction of adequate claims reserves is a major subject in actuarial practice and science. Due to their simplicity, the chain ladder (CL) and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) methods are the most commonly used claims reserving methods in practice. However, in contrast to the CL method, no estimator for the conditional mean square error of prediction (MSEP) of the ultimate claim has been derived in the BF method until now, and as such, this paper aims to fill that gap. This will be done in the framework of generalized linear models (GLM) using the (overdispersed) Poisson model motivation for the use of CL factor estimates in the estimation of the claims development patter

    Sensor Acquisition for Water Utilities: Addendum

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    Meteorological Observations for Renewable Energy Applications at Site 300

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    In early October 2010, two Laser and Detection Ranging (LIDAR) units (LIDAR-96 and LIDAR-97), a 3 m tall flux tower, and a 3 m tall meteorological tower were installed in the northern section of Site 300 (Figure 1) as a first step in development of a renewable energy testbed facility. This section of the SMS project is aimed at supporting that effort with continuous maintenance of atmospheric monitoring instruments capable of measuring vertical profiles of wind speed and wind direction at heights encountered by future wind power turbines. In addition, fluxes of energy are monitored to estimate atmospheric mixing and its effects on wind flow properties at turbine rotor disk heights. Together, these measurements are critical for providing an accurate wind resource characterization and for validating LLNL atmospheric prediction codes for future renewable energy projects at Site 300. Accurate, high-resolution meteorological measurements of wind flow in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and surface-atmosphere energy exchange are required for understanding the properties and quality of available wind power at Site 300. Wind speeds at heights found in a typical wind turbine rotor disk ({approx} 40-140 m) are driven by the synergistic impacts of atmospheric stability, orography, and land-surface characteristics on the mean wind flow in the PBL and related turbulence structures. This section of the report details the maintenance and labor required in FY11 to optimize the meteorological instruments and ensure high accuracy of their measurements. A detailed look at the observations from FY11 is also presented. This portion of the project met the following milestones: Milestone 1: successful maintenance and data collection of LIDAR and flux tower instruments; Milestone 2: successful installation of solar power for the LIDAR units; and Milestone 3: successful implementation of remote data transmission for the LIDAR units

    eSPC: An online data-analysis platform for molecular biophysics

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    All biological processes rely on the formation of protein–ligand, protein–peptide and protein–protein complexes. Studying the affinity, kinetics and thermodynamics of binding between these pairs is critical for understanding basic cellular mechanisms. Many different technologies have been designed for probing interactions between biomolecules, each based on measuring different signals (fluorescence, heat, thermophoresis, scattering and interference, among others). Evaluation of the data from binding experiments and their fitting is an essential step towards the quantification of binding affinities. Here, user-friendly online tools to analyze biophysical data from steady-state fluorescence spectroscopy, microscale thermophoresis and differential scanning fluorimetry experiments are presented. The modules of the data-analysis platform (https://spc.embl-hamburg.de/) contain classical thermodynamic models and clear user guidelines for the determination of equilibrium dissociation constants (Kd) and thermal unfolding parameters such as melting temperatures (Tm).Fil: Burastero, Osvaldo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Química Biológica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Niebling, Stephan. Centre For Structural Systems Biology; Alemania. European Molecular Biology Laboratory Hamburg; AlemaniaFil: Defelipe, Lucas Alfredo. Centre For Structural Systems Biology; Alemania. European Molecular Biology Laboratory Hamburg; Alemania. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Günther, Christian. Centre For Structural Systems Biology; Alemania. European Molecular Biology Laboratory Hamburg; AlemaniaFil: Struve, Angelica. Centre For Structural Systems Biology; Alemania. European Molecular Biology Laboratory Hamburg; AlemaniaFil: Garcia Alai, Maria M.. Centre For Structural Systems Biology; Alemania. European Molecular Biology Laboratory Hamburg; Alemani
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