Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Revisiting the five-facet structure of mindfulness

The current study aimed to replicate the development of the Five-Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ) in a sample of 399 undergraduate students. We factor analyzed the Mindful Attention and Awareness Questionnaire (MAAS), the Freiburg Mindfulness Scale, the Southampton Mindfulness Questionnaire (SMQ), the Cognitive Affective Mindfulness Scale Revised (CAMS-R), and the Kentucky Inventory of Mindfulness Skills (KIMS), but also extended the analysis by including a conceptually related measure, the Philadelphia Mindfulness Scale (PHLMS), and a conceptually unrelated measure, the Langer Mindfulness Scale (LMS). Overall, we found a partial replication of the five-factor structure, with the exception of non-reacting and non-judging which formed a single factor. The PHLMS items loaded as expected with theoretically related factors, whereas the LMS items emerged as separate factor. Finally, we found a new factor that was mostly defined by negatively worded items indicating possible item wording artifacts within the FFMQ. Our conceptual validation study indicates that some facets of the FFMQ can be recovered, but item wording factors may threaten the stability of these facets. Additionally, measures such as the LMS appear to measure not only theoretically, but also empirically different constructs

Characterization of Human Osteoarthritic Cartilage Using Optical and Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Purpose: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative disease starting with key molecular events that ultimately lead to the breakdown of the cartilage. The purpose of this study is to use two imaging methods that are sensitive to molecular and macromolecular changes in OA to better characterize the disease process in human osteoarthritic cartilage. Procedures: Human femoral condyles were collected from patients diagnosed with severe OA during total knee replacement surgeries. T1ρ and T2 magnetic resonance measurements were obtained using a 3-Tesla whole body scanner to assess macromolecular changes in the damaged cartilage matrix. Optical imaging was performed on specimens treated with MMPSense 680 to assess the matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activity. A linear regression model was used to assess the correlation of MMP optical data with T 1ρ magnetic resonance (MR) measurements. Slices from a representative specimen were removed from regions with high and low optical signals for subsequent histological analysis. Results: All specimens exhibit high T1ρ and T2 measurements in the range of 48–75 ms and 36– 69 ms, respectively. They also show intense photon signals (0.376 to 7.89×10 −4 cm 2) from th

Reduced Cortisol and Metabolic Responses of Thin Ewes to an Acute Cold Challenge in Mid-Pregnancy: Implications for Animal Physiology and Welfare

Background: Low food availability leading to reductions in Body Condition Score (BCS; 0 indicates emaciation and 5 obesity) in sheep often coincides with low temperatures associated with the onset of winter in New Zealand. The ability to adapt to reductions in environmental temperature may be impaired in animals with low BCS, in particular during pregnancy when metabolic demand is higher. Here we assess whether BCS affects a pregnant animal’s ability to cope with cold challenges. Methods: Eighteen pregnant ewes with a BCS of 2.760.1 were fed to attain low (LBC: BCS2.360.1), medium (MBC: BCS3.260.2) or high BCS (HBC: BCS3.660.2). Shorn ewes were exposed to a 6-h acute cold challenge in a climate-controlled room (wet and windy conditions, 4.460.1uC) in mid-pregnancy. Blood samples were collected during the BCS change phase, acute cold challenge and recovery phase. Results: During the BCS change phase, plasma glucose and leptin concentrations declined while free fatty acids (FFA) increased in LBC compared to MBC (P,0.01, P,0.01 and P,0.05, respectively) and HBC ewes (P,0.05, P,0.01 and P,0.01, respectively). During the cold challenge, plasma cortisol concentrations were lower in LBC than MBC (P,0.05) and HBC ewes (P,0.05), and FFA and insulin concentrations were lower in LBC than HBC ewes (P,0.05 and P,0.001, respectively). Leptin concentrations declined in MBC and HBC ewes while remaining unchanged in LBC ewes (P,0.01). Glucose concentrations and internal body temperature (Tcore) increased in all treatments, although peak Tcore tended to be higher in HBC ewes (P,0.1). During the recovery phase, T4 concentrations were lower in LBC ewes (P,0.05). Conclusion: Even though all ewes were able to increase Tcore and mobilize glucose, low BCS animals had considerably reduced cortisol and metabolic responses to a cold challenge in mid-pregnancy, suggesting that their ability to adapt to cold challenges through some of the expected pathways was reduced

How Bodies and Voices Interact in Early Emotion Perception

Successful social communication draws strongly on the correct interpretation of others' body and vocal expressions. Both can provide emotional information and often occur simultaneously. Yet their interplay has hardly been studied. Using electroencephalography, we investigated the temporal development underlying their neural interaction in auditory and visual perception. In particular, we tested whether this interaction qualifies as true integration following multisensory integration principles such as inverse effectiveness. Emotional vocalizations were embedded in either low or high levels of noise and presented with or without video clips of matching emotional body expressions. In both, high and low noise conditions, a reduction in auditory N100 amplitude was observed for audiovisual stimuli. However, only under high noise, the N100 peaked earlier in the audiovisual than the auditory condition, suggesting facilitatory effects as predicted by the inverse effectiveness principle. Similarly, we observed earlier N100 peaks in response to emotional compared to neutral audiovisual stimuli. This was not the case in the unimodal auditory condition. Furthermore, suppression of beta–band oscillations (15–25 Hz) primarily reflecting biological motion perception was modulated 200–400 ms after the vocalization. While larger differences in suppression between audiovisual and audio stimuli in high compared to low noise levels were found for emotional stimuli, no such difference was observed for neutral stimuli. This observation is in accordance with the inverse effectiveness principle and suggests a modulation of integration by emotional content. Overall, results show that ecologically valid, complex stimuli such as joined body and vocal expressions are effectively integrated very early in processing

Towards screening Barrett’s Oesophagus: current guidelines, imaging modalities and future developments

Barrett’s oesophagus is the only known precursor to oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). Although guidelines on the screening and surveillance exist in Barrett’s oesophagus, the current strategies are inadequate. Oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) is the gold standard method in screening for Barrett’s oesophagus. This invasive method is expensive with associated risks negating its use as a current screening tool for Barrett’s oesophagus. This review explores current definitions, epidemiology, biomarkers, surveillance, and screening in Barrett’s oesophagus. Imaging modalities applicable to this condition are discussed, in addition to future developments. There is an urgent need for an alternative non-invasive method of screening and/or surveillance which could be highly beneficial towards reducing waiting times, alleviating patient fears and reducing future costs in current healthcare services. Vibrational spectroscopy has been shown to be promising in categorising Barrett’s oesophagus through to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and OAC. These techniques need further validation through multicentre trials