A theoretical framework for estimation of AUCs in complete and incomplete sampling designs.

Nonclinical in vivo animal studies have to be completed before starting clinical studies of the pharmacokinetic behavior of a drug in humans. The drug exposure in animal studies is often measured by the area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC). The classic complete data design, where each animal is sampled for analysis once per time point, is usually only applicable for large animals. In the case of rats and mice, where blood sampling is restricted, the batch design or the serial sampling design needs to be considered. In batch designs samples are taken more than once from each animal, but not at all time points. In serial sampling designs only one sample is taken from each animal. In this paper we present an estimator for the AUC from 0 to the last time point that is applicable to all three designs. The variance and asymptotic distribution of the estimator are derived and confidence intervals based upon the asymptotic results are discussed and evaluated in a simulation study. Further, we define an estimator for linear combinations of AUCs and investigate its asymptotic properties mathematically as well as in simulation

Modeling to predict factor VIII levels associated with zero bleeds in patients with severe hemophilia A initiated on tertiary prophylaxis

Background Factor VIII (FVIII) trough levels > 1 IU/dL in patients with severe hemophilia A receiving regular prophylaxis may optimize bleed protection. Objectives In this post hoc analysis of patients receiving tertiary prophylaxis for approximately 1 year, the relationship between estimated FVIII levels and reported bleeds was investigated to predict the potential for zero bleeds. Methods Sixty-three patients (median [range] age, 28 [7–59] years) with severe hemophilia A (229 bleeds) were included. FVIII levels at time of each bleed were estimated from single-dose individual pharmacokinetics. The highest estimated FVIII level at which patients experienced a bleed was considered the “potentially effective trough level” for that bleed type. Kaplan–Meier estimates of proportions of patients with no bleeds above certain estimated FVIII levels were determined. Those not experiencing a bleed in the trial were assumed to have a bleed at 0 IU/dL (pragmatic approach) or at their median trough level (conservative approach). Results Kaplan–Meier estimates based on pragmatic approach predicted zero all bleeds, joint bleeds, and spontaneous joint bleeds in 1 year in 40, 43, and 63% of patients, respectively, when the potentially effective trough FVIII level was set at 1 IU/dL. Between 1 and 10 IU/dL, every 1 IU/dL rise in estimated FVIII level was associated with an additional 2% of patients having zero all bleeds. Conclusion This post hoc analysis confirms benefits with trough levels of approximately 1 to 3 IU/dL in most patients starting tertiary prophylaxis; prophylaxis with higher trough levels may help patients to achieve zero bleeds

SHP656, a polysialylated recombinant factor VIII (PSA-rFVIII): First-in-human study evaluating safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics in patients with severe haemophilia A

Introduction SHP656 is the first factor VIII (FVIII) product developed using polysialylation (PSA) technology, in which full‐length recombinant (r) FVIII (anti‐haemophilic factor [recombinant]) is conjugated with a 20 kDa PSA polymer. Aim To compare the safety, immunogenicity and pharmacokinetics of SHP656 vs the parent rFVIII (octocog alfa) after single infusions of 25‐75 IU/kg in patients with severe haemophilia A (FVIII activity <1%). Methods Multinational, phase 1, prospective, open‐label, two‐period, fixed‐sequence, dose‐escalation trial (clinicaltrials.gov NCT02716194). Patients received single doses of rFVIII and then SHP656 sequentially at the same dose: 25 ± 3 IU/kg (Cohort 1), 50 ± 5 IU/kg (Cohort 2) and 75 ± 5 IU/kg (Cohort 3). Results Forty patients received rFVIII: 11 in Cohort 1, 16 in Cohort 2 and 13 in Cohort 3. Two patients withdrew before receiving SHP656, leaving 38 patients who completed the study and received both treatments. No treatment‐related adverse events (AEs), serious AEs, deaths, study withdrawals, thrombotic events or allergic reactions were reported; and no significant treatment‐related changes in laboratory parameters or vital signs. No patients developed FVIII inhibitors or antibodies to PSA. FVIII activity was significantly prolonged following SHP656 administration vs rFVIII with an approximately 1.5‐fold extension in mean residence time (P < .05). Exposure increased proportional to the SHP656 dose over the 25‐75 IU/kg dose range

Population pharmacokinetic modeling and simulation of immunoglobulin exposure with varying dosing intervals of subcutaneous immunoglobulin 20% (Ig20Gly) in patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases

Background Immunoglobulin (IG) replacement therapy in patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases (PID) can be administered daily to every 2 weeks subcutaneously (SCIG) or every 3 or 4 weeks intravenously (IVIG). Objectives Develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model simulating IG exposure with Ig20Gly, a 20% SCIG; determine the dose adjustment factor for Ig20Gly relative to IVIG. Methods Data from patients with PID treated with Ig20Gly and IVIG 10% were used to characterize IG population PK by nonlinear mixed-effects modeling and validated using data splitting and a visual predictive check. IG profiles were simulated for 1000 patients/interval treated with Ig20Gly (daily, every 2 days, every 3 days, twice weekly, weekly, every 2 weeks). An Ig20Gly adjustment factor of 130% was used to simulate Ig20Gly to IVIG AUC ratios for weekly or every 2 weeks Ig20Gly dosing intervals and a monthly IVIG dosing interval. Results A 1-compartment model, using weight as a covariate on clearance, derived from an index modeling dataset (n = 81) demonstrated predictability for a validation dataset (n = 21). The model estimate of bioavailability was 73.9%. Simulations for 6 dosing intervals showed similar mean profiles with overlapping prediction intervals. Mean AUC ratios of Ig20Gly to IVIG with a dose adjustment factor of 1.30:1 were 98.7% for weekly and 97.7% for twice-weekly administration demonstrating comparable exposure. Conclusion Ig20Gly exposures from daily to up to every 2 weeks appeared equivalent. A 1.30 conversion factor provided coverage comparable to IVIG when Ig20Gly is administered daily to every 2 weeks

Assessing goodness-of-fit for evaluation of dose-proportionality

For the clinical development of a new drug, the determination of dose-proportionality is an essential part of the pharmacokinetic evaluations, which may provide early indications of non-linear pharmacokinetics and may help to identify sub-populations with divergent clearances. Prior to making any conclusions regarding dose-proportionality, the goodness-of-fit of the model must be assessed to evaluate the model performance. We propose the use of simulation-based visual predictive checks to improve the validity of dose-proportionality conclusions for complex designs. We provide an illustrative example and include a table to facilitate review by regulatory authorities

Functional Disorders in Neurology: Case Studies

Functional, often called psychogenic, disorders are common in neurological practice. We illustrate clinical issues and highlight some recent research findings using six case studies of functional neurological disorders. We discuss dizziness as a functional disorder, describing the relatively new consensus term Persistent Posturo-Perceptual Dizziness (PPPD), axial jerking/myoclonus as a functional movement disorder, functional speech symptoms, post-concussion disorder with functional cognitive symptoms and finally advances in treatment of dissociative seizures and functional motor disorders

Risk management of climate impact for tourism operators: An empirical analysis on ski resorts

The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of hedging strategies based on snow andtemperature options developed by ski operators to protect their profitability under adversechanges in climatic conditions. The setup is based on a joint non-parametric model for snowand temperature aimed at providing a modelling support for the assessment of the impact ofthese weather variables on the number of visitors at the ski resort. The analysis is carried outconsidering the case of Austrian Alps, and examines: i) the ability of the proposed approach toprovide a realistic representation of the true data-generating process; ii) the variability reductionin the Profit and Loss of the ski operator offered by the suggested strategies; and iii) the tradeoffbetween the budget earmarked for hedging and profitability protection

Simultaneous confidence regions for multivariate bioequivalence

Demonstrating bioequivalence of several pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters, such as AUC and Cmax, that are calculated from the same biological sample measurements is in fact a multivariate problem, even though this is neglected by most practitioners and regulatory bodies, who typically settle for separate univariate analyses. We believe, however, that a truly multivariate evaluation of all PK measures simultaneously is clearly more adequate. In this paper, we review methods to construct joint confidence regions around multivariate normal means and investigate their usefulness in simultaneous bioequivalence problems via simulation. Some of them work well for idealised scenarios but break down when faced with real-data challenges such as unknown variance and correlation among the PK parameters. We study the shapes of the confidence regions resulting from different methods, discuss how marginal simultaneous confidence intervals for the individual PK measures can be derived, and illustrate the application to data from a trial on ticlopidine hydrochloride. An R package is available

Confidence Intervals for Ratios of AUC's in the Case of Serial Sampling : A Comparison of Seven Methods.

Pharmacokinetic studies are commonly performed using the two-stage approach. The first stage involves estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters like the area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) for each analysis subject separately and the second stage uses the individual parameter estimates for statistical inference. This two-stage approach is not applicable in sparse sampling situations where only one sample is available per analysis subject like in non-clinical in-vivo studies. In a serial sampling design only one sample is taken from each analysis subject. A simulation study was carried out to assess coverage, power and type I error of seven methods to construct two-sided 90% confidence intervals for ratios of two AUC's assessed in a serial sampling design, which can be used to assess bioequivalence in this parameter