Measuring Belief and Risk Attitude

Ramsey (1926) sketches a proposal for measuring the subjective probabilities of an agent by their observable preferences, assuming that the agent is an expected utility maximizer. I show how to extend the spirit of Ramsey's method to a strictly wider class of agents: risk-weighted expected utility maximizers (Buchak 2013). In particular, I show how we can measure the risk attitudes of an agent by their observable preferences, assuming that the agent is a risk-weighted expected utility maximizer. Further, we can leverage this method to measure the subjective probabilities of a risk-weighted expected utility maximizer

Changes in the seawater salinity-oxygen isotope relation between last glacial and present: sediment core data and OGCM modelling

The presently available paleotemperature data implies large ice-free areas in the Greenland- Iceland-Norwegian Seas during the Last Glacial Maximum 21 600 yr BP. From these temperatures and the independent measurements of oxygen isotope ratios of fossil foraminiferal shells, glacial sea surface salinities could be computed, if the glacial relation between salinity and water isotope ratio was known. For this study, a three-dimensional numerical ocean circulation model was employed to investigate the possible shape of this still not precisely known relation, and to reconstruct a physically consistent scenario of the northern North Atlantic for the glacial summer. This scenario turned out to be quite similar to modern winter conditions, whereas the required salinity vs. oxygen isotope relation of this time must have been very different from its modern counterpart

Geography Field Trip to the Southeast and Cuba

Journal of Joyce Neth, written on a geography field trip to the southeast United States and Cuba from July 30 to August 21, 1955. Trip was led by UNK History faculty member Philip Holmgren. Part of the Holmgren Collection, UNK Archives & Special Collectionshttps://openspaces.unk.edu/spec-coll/1048/thumbnail.jp

Taking the ‘human’ out of humanitarian? States’ positions on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems from an International Humanitarian Law perspective

The debate about the legality of Lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) under humanitarian law is still ongoing. This is also due to the developing of autonomous weapon systems which might reach new milestones in autonomous technology. Thus, new legal reviews would be required. The research question of this thesis asks: In how far are lethal autonomous weapons systems in compliance with international humanitarian law and how strict is it interpreted by individual states? At first, this research examines and conceptualizes the characteristics of autonomous weapons and conducts a legal analysis on humanitarian law. LAWS are characterized by their amount of human control, the sophistication of autonomy, and functions they have

Out With the Old, In With the New Digital Era Instruction: 21st Century Education Must Conform to the Needs of Digital Kids

Modern day youths are known for their tech savvy ways and dependency on digital devices. They choose to spend their free time in front of a digital screen chatting, taking and sending photos, playing games, drafting emoji messages, etc. These youths are then expected to attend school and remove all electronic devices and pay attention for 6+ hours a day in each seat for at least 40-minute intervals. The relevancy to learn is lost; students can hardly see any relevancy in the content being learned at school with their own lives filled with technology and immediate driven results. Thus, it is imperative that educators evolve right along with society to ensure students are engaged and motivate to learn while still obtaining the necessary knowledge and skills for future successes. Educators must adapt 21st Century skills within their curriculum to better support students’ success in the modern world. Unfortunately, teachers lack adequate instruction for our 21st Century learners due to unsupportive administration and lack of resources to name a few. It is up to modern day educators to find the balance between content and 21st Century skills and inspire our current day screenagers to become successful adults in society post-graduation

Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation

Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.Comment: Published Nov 05, 2013. Open access at: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.007843