Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery

Many published research results are false, and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts---suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics

State-of-the-art cockpit design for the HH-65A helicopters

In the design of a HH-65A helicopter cockpit, advanced integrated electronics systems technology was employed to achieve several important goals for this multimission aircraft. They were: (1) integrated systems operation with consistent and simplified cockpit procedures; (2) mission-task-related cockpit displays and controls, and (3) reduced pilot instrument scan effort with excellent outside visibility. The integrated avionics system was implemented to depend heavily upon distributed but complementary processing, multiplex digital bus technology, and multifunction CRT controls and displays. This avionics system was completely flight tested and will soon enter operational service with the Coast Guard

Assortment Planning for Multiple Quality Levels Using Locational Choice

Assortment planning is the process in which a retailer selects a product line to offer to customers and is a key determinant of a retailer\u27s profit. We consider the assortment planning problem using a locational choice model for customer product selection and allow for both horizontal and vertical product differentiation. When the distribution of customer preference is unimodal, the optimal solutions for this problem are unknown. We propose two solution philosophies for generating product assortments. First, we introduce a metaheuristic representation for the problem and test the performance of three metaheuristic techniques. We suggest that a tabu search or genetic algorithm may be the best technique for the problem depending on the parameters. Next, we introduce a combined dynamic programming and line search approach for generating optimal solutions. We use this technique to explore the properties of the optimal solution and suggest instances where this technique is preferable to the metaheuristic methods. We then propose a new model which allows for heterogeneous quality preferences among the customer population. This model allows for more realistic customer product selection but also increases the complexity of the problem. We give mathematical properties of optimal solutions to the heterogeneous model and propose a new metaheuristic representation and a genetic algorithm for solving the problem

A Primary School Curriculum To Enhance Self-Concept, Decision-Making, and Locus of Control

The curriculum developed in this project was designed to meet the needs of primary students in the areas of self-concept, decision-making, and locus of control. It provides activities that enhance these areas in the hope of positively influencing school achievement. The related literature and research review attempts to show the interrelationships between self-concept, school achievement, decision-making, and locus of control.The project consists of 10-15 minute activities that do not require lengthy teacher preparation or numerous materials. The activities take into consideration Piaget\u27s and Kohlberg\u27s stages of development for kindergarten through second grade students. The content of the activities is not arranged in any particular sequential order. The focus of the content is in the affective domain with the activities dealing primarily with feelings, values, relationships with others, self-awareness, and making choices.The curriculum was evaluated by surveying a team of primary teachers. Feedback was gathered concerning the appropriateness of the activities for primary students and the practicality of its use in the classroom

Comparative subtidal and supratidal taphonomic changes in the elemental components of marine vertebrate bones using energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy and principle component analysis : ecological and forensic application.

Individuals and agencies of multiple disciplines have evolved interests which result in the studies and research of marine mammals as well as other protected marine dwellers such as sea turtles. Aside from wildlife conservation, an exponential increase in interest to these protected animals has been the side effect of trade for profit to fund activities targeted at human populations as acts of terror. Experts believe that wildlife trade and trafficking is being used to finance terrorist and criminal activities (Wyler & Sheikh, 2013). This study focuses on observations made by analysts while examining remains of protected animals that may be involved in trade or trafficking on the black market such as marine vertebrates. According to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Forensic officials, recent observations have found that marine organisms like the sea turtle and harbor porpoise display signs of advanced taphonomy and even premature fossilization following decomposition. Because of this observed advanced decay, analysts find it difficult to effectively and efficiently age marine bone specimens. In an attempt to develop a less costly and time-consuming method for analyzing marine bone specimens, this study was created in which bone samples were observed over the course of a year. In this study, skeletal remains from submerged marine vertebrates including a porpoise, seal, sea turtle, and a bovine cow control were sampled to determine a plausible explanation for these observations. The specimens were necropsied prior to submersion, and the bones of each vertebrate were segregated with respect to species. Periodic samplings took place over the course of one year. Using the Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), the bone specimens were examined for topographic changes and analyzed for elemental composition. Among the different elemental aspects of bone composition, a list of elements was compiled and monitored for change throughout the duration of 12 months

A Comparative Analysis of Job Satisfaction, Burnout, and Intent to Leave Among Nurses

There is a significant shortage of qualified registered nurses in the United States which, in part, is due to a lack of job satisfaction and burnout with an intent to leave nursing, especially among nurses who work in specialty areas such as intensive care. There is limited research as to how job satisfaction and burnout contribute to intent to leave among the specialty areas of nursing working at the bedside in an acute care environment. The purpose, guided by the modeling and role modeling theory, was to determine the relationship that exists between burnout, job satisfaction, and intent to leave in nurses who work in the critical care unit within an acute care hospital in the Western United States. and to compare these results to nurses not working within the critical care environments of the same acute care hospital. Data were collected from 131 participants who completed three research tools (Job Satisfaction Survey, Copenhagen Burnout Inventory, and Anticipated Turnover Scale). Data were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results of the research indicated that nurses, regardless of unit, experienced significantly high levels of burnout out, which contributes to an intent to leave nursing. There was a relationship among job satisfaction, burnout, and intent to leave among nurses working in the critical care environment. However, there was no difference in job satisfaction, burnout, and intent to leave between nurses who work in critical care and nurses who do not work in critical care. Recommendations for future research should focus on what factors contribute to nurses leaving the bedside, which will ultimately allow nurses to continue to focus on patient care and contribute to positive social change for this population and the patient population

New methods in quantitative ethnography: economic experiments and variation in the price of equality

Journal ArticleA new method for quantitatively documenting concerns for economic fairness has the potential for identifying variation in prosociality within and across societies. Multiple dictator games conducted in two small-scale societies presented decision makers with a choice between an equitable and an inequitable payoff distribution. The games varied in terms of the type of inequality the decision maker faced and the cost to the decision maker of eliminating inequality. A novel set of statistical models directly links experimental results and player heterogeneity with the formal theory of inequality aversion. The experimental method can be generalized to allow maximum flexibility in data analysis