Géopolitique de la Turquie à partir du Grand échiquier de Zbignew Brzezinski

Cet essai prend comme point de départ l'ouvrage de Zbignew Brzezinski, LeGrand échiquier, L'Amérique et le reste du monde, pour faire une analyse géopolitique de la Turquie. Dans son livre, Zbignew Brzezinski qualifie successivement la Turquie de « pivot géopolitique de premier ordre » et « d'important acteur géostratégique dans la région des Balkans eurasiens ». Il s'agit d'illustrer ces deux caractéristiques et de les passer au crible de la réalité. Malgré la disparition de I'URSS, la Turquie demeure un important pivot géopolitique. Si son rôle de sentinelle du monde occidental face à la grande puissance septentrionale a quelque peu évolué, le redéploiement effectué vers le Moyen-Orient confère toujours à la Turquie une position-clé dans la région. Le qualificatif d'acteur géostratégique régional pose davantage problème. Certes, des Balkans à Chypre en passant par l'Asie centrale, la Turquie est en mesure de prouver ses capacités d'influence. Mais ne s'agit-il pas avant tout d'une influence ponctuelle, sur des espaces bien délimités, voire potentielle ? L'exemple de l'Asie centrale est ici révélateur, Ankara ayant bien été obligée de passer vis-à-vis du « monde turc », au début des années 1990, des illusions au réalisme. Par ailleurs, l'accumulation de difficultésinternes concernant notamment le problème kurde, la place de la mouvance islamique dans le système politique, le développement de la mafia, les disparités économiques et sociales, risque d'hypothéquer les capacités d'influence externe de la TurquieThis article is a geopolitical analysis ofTurkey taking Zbignew Brzezinski'sbook The Grand Chessboard : American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperativesas a starting point. In his book, Zbignew Brzezinski successively characterizes Turkey as a «first-class geopolitical pivot » and an « important geostrategic actor in the Eurasian Balkans region ». Those two characterizations are illustrated and thoroughly analysed here. Despite the disappearance of the URSS, Turkey is still an important geopolitical pivot. If its role as a guard of the Western worldfacing the big Northern power has evolved quite a bit, the redeployment towards the Middle East still grants Turkey a key position in the region. The term regional geostrategic actor is more controversial. Indeed, from the Balkans to Cyprus to Central Asia, Turkey is able to demonstrate its influence. But is it only a sporadic influence, exerted over well-defined spaces, or even a potential influence ? The case of Central Asia is a telling one here; in the early 1990's, Ankara had to switch from illusions to realism vis-à-vis the « Turkish world ». In addition, growing domestic issues such as the Kurdish problem, the sphere of influence of Islam in thepolitical System, the development ofa mafia, and the social and economic disparities, may undermine Turkey's external influence

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