Essays on uncertainty and foreign direct investments

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’explorer l’impact de l’incertitude sur les IDE. Elle s’intéresse plus particulièrement à l’industrie agroalimentaire en tenant compte des spécificités de la chaîne de valeur agricole. Les flux et les stocks d’IDE sont généralement très instables et il est admis que l’incertitude est le principal facteur causant les baisses fréquentes de l’IDE au niveau mondial. Nous voulons savoir si et dans quelle mesure l’incertitude causée par la volatilité de la demande et de l’offre peut affecter les IDE dans l’industrie agroalimentaire. À cette fin, nous utilisons des modèles théoriques et empiriques. Dans le premier chapitre, nous étudions empiriquement la mesure dans laquelle l’incertitude provenant des variabilités de la demande du marché, de la production et du commerce peut expliquer la probabilité d’avoir des IDE dans l’industrie agroalimentaire. On s’attend à ce que les IDE soient retardés lorsque l’incertitude augmente car les entreprises qui font ces investissements mobilisent des ressources conséquentes pour réaliser leurs IDE. Nous utilisons un modèle d’analyse de survie et des données d’IDE bilateraux. Cela nous permet de constater que la volatilité réduit la probabilité d’observer l’IDE entre les pays. Ce comportement est observé dans l’industrie agroalimentaire mais aussi dans d’autres industries. Cependant, toutes les sources de variabilité ne jouent pas nécessairement un rôle. Par exemple, les IDE des entreprises multinationales européennes et américaines dans l’industrie alimentaire sont négativement affectés par la volatilité des importations du pays de destination. Les IDE de ces pays dans l’industrie des produits chimiques sont négativement affectés par la volatilité de la production. La volatilité des exportations diminue l’attrait de capitaux étrangers dans le secteur des équipements de transport des pays d’accueil. Dans le second chapitre, nous construisons un modèle théorique pour expliquer le compromis entre les exportations et les IDE compte tenu de l’incertitude quant à la taille de la demande. Nous observons que l’incertitude de la demande induit un comportement d’attente des entreprises multinationales qui explique pourquoi les IDE peuvent être retardés dans les marchés où l’incertitude est grande. L’IDE devient une option réelle dans laquelle l’attente permet de réduire l’incertitude. Nous adoptons la littérature sur l’analyse des options réelles pour construire notre cadre théorique. En plus de l’incertitude de la demande, nous examinons également des facteurs comme les coûts au commerce et l’environnement de la concurrence. Nous observons qu’une forte concurrence, une faible différenciation des produits et une diminution des barrières commerciales amplifient le comportement d’attente des multinationales. Par exemple, la réduction des coûts au commerce peut nuire aux IDE, car elle augmente leur sensibilité à l’incertitude et l’attente devient une option plus intéressante. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous analysons les IDE dans l’industrie agroalimentaire en tenant compte des différences de volatilité dans l’offre agricole entre les pays. Cette analyse nous permet d’étudier la question de l’incertitude dans l’industrie agroalimentaire du point de vue de la chaîne d’approvisionnement, car nous considérons l’incertitude dans le secteur en amont. En fait, les variations des prix agricoles ou des quantités livrées aux transformateurs par les agriculteurs sont souvent importantes et imprévisibles. Par conséquent, ces transformateurs de l’industrie agroalimentaire sont exposées à une incertitude croissante et persistante. Notre cadre théorique tient compte du pouvoir de marché des entreprises de transformation et des IDE de type horizontaux et verticaux. Nous obtenons que même les entreprises neutres au risque sont préoccupées par la variabilité de l’offre. En effet, dans le contexte de l’industrie alimentaire, la relation entre le profit et le choc d’offre est concave étant donné la concurrence imparfaite et le moment de la résolution de l’incertitude. Notre approche empirique confirme que les entreprises multinationales réalisent leurs décisions en matière d’IDE en considérant les disparités de variabilité de l’offre entre les pays parce que la volatilité du secteur agricole dissuade les IDE. Nous testons cette prédiction à l’aide de données bilatérales de stocks d’IDE dans l’industrie agroalimentaire.The three essays of this thesis explore the impact of uncertainty on FDI in the food industry by taking into account the specificities of the food value chain. FDI flows and stocks are very unstable and evidence suggests that uncertainty is the main factor causing frequent declines in FDI globally. We want to know whether and to what extent the uncertainty caused by the volatility of demand and supply affects FDI in the food processing industry by using theoretical and empirical models. The first essay empirically studies whether uncertainty related to variables such as volatile market demand, production variability and trade volatility affects the hazard rate of FDI in the food industry. As FDI is irreversible investment, it is likely to be delayed when uncertainty increases. Using a survival analysis model and bilateral FDI data, we find that volatility reduces the hazard rate of FDI. This behavior is observed in the food industry but also in other industries. However, not all sources of variability are relevant. For example, FDI by European and US multinational companies in the food industry is negatively affected by the import volatility of the country of destination. FDI of these countries in the chemical industry is negatively affected by the volatility of production. Export volatility plays a role in attracting foreign capitals in the transport equipment sector of host countries. The second essay provides a theoretical model to explain the choice between export and FDI given the uncertainty about the size of demand. The fact that FDI is delayed when uncertainty increases is explained by the wait-and-see behavior of multinational companies when investing in very uncertain foreign markets. FDI decisions can be considered as real options in which the decision to invest can be postponed to reduce uncertainty. We build a model that relies on the literature of real options. In addition to the uncertainty of demand, we also examine factors such as trade costs and the competitive environment. We find that intense competition, low product differentiation and reduction of trade barriers amplify the wait-and-see behavior of multinational firms. For example, trade liberalization can be harmful for FDI, as it increases the sensitivity of FDI to uncertainty and waiting becomes a more valuable option. In the last essay, we analyze FDI in the food processing industry, given the differences in the volatility of agricultural supply between countries. This analysis allow us to examine the issue of uncertainty in the food processing industry from a supply chain perspective, as we consider uncertainty in the upstream sector. In fact, variations of farm prices or of quantity delivered to processors by farmers are problematic as they are large and unpredictable. Consequently, food processing firms, as they use massively primary agricultural commodities as ingredients, are exposed to an increasing and persistent uncertainty. Our theoretical framework takes into account the market power of processors and horizontal and vertical FDI are discussed. We find that even risk-neutral companies are concerned by the variance of supply. Indeed, in the context of the food industry, the relationship between profit and supply shock is concave given imperfect competition and the timing of the resolution of uncertainty. Our empirical approach (a gravity model) confirms that multinational firms achieve their FDI decisions by considering the difference of supply shocks between countries as the volatility of the agricultural sector deters FDI.We test this prediction using bilateral FDI stocks data in the food processing industry

Retroviral Danger from Within: TLR7 Is in Control

In this issue of Immunity, Yu et al. (2012) outline a fascinating model in which TLR7-mediated antibody production acts as a dominant immunosurveillance mechanism against endogenous retroviruses (ERVs), with additional support of TLR3 and TLR9 that function to prevent ERV-mediated malignancy

İslam alimlerinin düşünceleri ekseninde “İslam Devleti" anlayışı

Devlet, ortaya çıktığı günden beri insan hayatında merkezi bir rol oynayan siyasal bir örgütlenmedir. İslam âlimleri dahil olmak üzere her dine mensup düşünürlerin devlet ve yönetim konusundaki görüşleri farklılık arz etmektedir. Birçok İslam düşünürü tarafından İslam’ın siyasal ilkeleri (Şura, vb.) ve bu ilkelerin evrenselliği konusunda çok sayıda eser kaleme alınmıştır. Her düşünür veya âlimin kendi yaşadığı dönemin koşullarından yola çıkarak yeni bir otorite/iktidar belirleme yöntemi (seçim, şura, tayin, vb.) ve iktidarın sınırı, denetimi ve kaynağı konusunda farklı yorum ve teori geliştirdiği söylenebilir. Âlimlerin 19. ve 20. yüzyılda, İslam’ın siyasi ve ahlaki kurallarına dayalı bir İslam Devleti’nin kurulması için cemaat, teşkilat, dernek ve parti şeklinde örgütlendiği görülmüştür. Ancak iktidarın kaynağının ruhani mi yoksa cismani mi olduğu konusunda fikir ayrılığı yaşanmıştır. Akabinde ise, birçok farklı yorum ve fraksiyonlar ortaya çıkmıştır. Bugün bile bu farklılıklardan bazıları aynı, bazıları ise farklı isimlerle varlığını devam ettirmektedir. Ancak temeldeki bu tartışma hala canlılığını sürdürmektedir. Bu çalışmada İslam devletinin nasıl olması gerektiği, şeklinin ne olduğu, ilkelerinin neler olduğu, Halifenin (devlet başkanının) nasıl seçileceği ve meşruiyetinin kaynağının ne olduğu soruları, İslam âlimlerinin görüşleri ekseninde üç kuşak halinde incelenmiştir

Hemşirelerin hastane enfeksiyonlarını önlemeye ilişkin bilgi düzeyleri

Amaç. Bu araştırma hemşirelerin hastane enfeksiyonlarını önlemeye ilişkin bilgi düzeylerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla tanımlayıcı olarak yapılmıştır. Materyal ve Metot. Araştırmanın evrenini Elazığ Eğitim ve Araştırma Hastanesi ile Harput Devlet Hastanesi’nde görev yapan 462 hemşire oluşturmuştur. Araştırmada örneklem seçimine gidilmemiş, araştırmaya katılmayı kabul eden hemşireler araştırma kapsamına alınmıştır. Araştırmanın verileri Aralık 2011- Ocak 2012 tarihleri arasında toplanmış ve 378 hemşire ile araştırma tamamlanmıştır. Veri toplamada hemşirelerin tanıtıcı özellikleri ve hastane enfeksiyonlarını önlemeye yönelik 49 sorudan oluşan anket formu kullanılmıştır. Hemşirelerin bilgi düzeyi; her soru için 2,38 puan verilerek toplam 100 puan üzerinden değerlendirilmiştir. Verilerin özetlenmesinde; kategorik değişkenler için sayı ve yüzde, sayısal değişkenler için ortalama, standart sapma, minimum ve maksimum değerler, verilerin değerlendirilmesinde ise t testi, tek yönlü varyans analizi ve Kruskal-Wallis varyans analizi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular. Araştırmadan elde edilen verilere göre hemşirelerin hastane enfeksiyonlarını önlemeye ilişkin bilgi puan ortalaması 64,98 olarak bulunmuştur. Hemşirelerin çalıştıkları birimler arasında bilgi puanı açısından farklılık bulunmuştur. Dahili birimlerde ve yoğun bakım ünitelerinde çalışan hemşirelerin, cerrahi birimlerde ve özel birimlerde çalışan hemşirelerden daha yüksek bilgi puanı aldıkları saptanmıştır. Sonuç. Araştırmanın sonucunda hemşirelerin hastane enfeksiyonlarını önlemeye ilişkin bilgilerinin 64,98 puan olduğu belirlenmiştir

Mechanisms of immune modulation in the tumor microenvironment and implications for targeted therapy

Cancer; Immunosuppression mechanisms; Tumor microenvironmentCáncer; Mecanismos de inmunosupresión; Microambiente tumoralCàncer; Mecanismes d'immunosupressió; Microambient tumoralThe efficacy of cancer therapies is limited to a great extent by immunosuppressive mechanisms within the tumor microenvironment (TME). Numerous immune escape mechanisms have been identified. These include not only processes associated with tumor, immune or stromal cells, but also humoral, metabolic, genetic and epigenetic factors within the TME. The identification of immune escape mechanisms has enabled the development of small molecules, nanomedicines, immune checkpoint inhibitors, adoptive cell and epigenetic therapies that can reprogram the TME and shift the host immune response towards promoting an antitumor effect. These approaches have translated into series of breakthroughs in cancer therapies, some of which have already been implemented in clinical practice. In the present article the authors provide an overview of some of the most important mechanisms of immunosuppression within the TME and the implications for targeted therapies against different cancers

Hemşirelerin manevi bakıma ilişkin görüşleri

Amaç: Bu araştırma, hemşirelerin maneviyat ve manevi bakıma ilişkin görüşlerini belirlemek amacıyla yapıldı. Gereç ve Yöntem: Araştırma tanımlayıcı olarak Elazığ’da bulunan iki Devlet Hastanesi’nde Mart-Mayıs 2013 tarihleri arasında yapılmıştır. Araştırmanın evrenini söz konusu hastanelerde görev yapan 230 hemşire oluşturmaktadır. Araştırmada örneklem seçimine gidilmeden aynı hastanelerde görev yapan ve araştırmaya katılmayı kabul eden 150 hemşire araştırma kapsamına alınmıştır. Araştırmanın verileri Kişisel Bilgi Formu ve Maneviyat ve Manevi Bakım Dereceleme Ölçeği ile toplanmıştır. Verilerin istatistiksel değerlendirilmesinde; yüzdelik, ortalama, varyans analizi, Mann Whitney U testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular: Araştırmaya katılanların Maneviyat ve Manevi Bakım Dereceleme Ölçeği toplam puan ortalaması 20.06±9.05’dir. Cerrahi birimlerde ve 0-5 yıl arasında çalışan hemşirelerin Maneviyat ve Manevi Bakım Dereceleme Ölçeği toplam puan ortalaması daha yüksek ve aradaki fark istatistiksel olarak önemli tespit edilmiştir (p<0.05). Manevi bakım veren hemşirelerin manevi bakım ölçek puanı daha anlamlı çıkmıştır (p<0.05). Manevi bakıma yönelik uygulamaları yapan hemşirelerin manevi bakım ölçek toplam puanında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı fark bulunmuştur(p<0.05). Sonuç: Hemşirelerin manevi bakıma ilişkin görüşlerinin yeterli olduğunu göstermektedir

Neutrophils in cancer: neutral no more

Neutrophils are indispensable antagonists of microbial infection and facilitators of wound healing. In the cancer setting, a newfound appreciation for neutrophils has come into view. The traditionally held belief that neutrophils are inert bystanders is being challenged by the recent literature. Emerging evidence indicates that tumours manipulate neutrophils, sometimes early in their differentiation process, to create diverse phenotypic and functional polarization states able to alter tumour behaviour. In this Review, we discuss the involvement of neutrophils in cancer initiation and progression, and their potential as clinical biomarkers and therapeutic targets

Myeloid-derived miR-223 regulates intestinal inflammation via repression of the NLRP3 inflammasome

MicroRNA (miRNA)-mediated RNA interference regulates many immune processes, but how miRNA circuits orchestrate aberrant intestinal inflammation during inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is poorly defined. Here, we report that miR-223 limits intestinal inflammation by constraining the nlrp3 inflammasome. miR-223 was increased in intestinal biopsies from patients with active IBD and in preclinical models of intestinal inflammation. miR-223-/y mice presented with exacerbated myeloid-driven experimental colitis with heightened clinical, histopathological, and cytokine readouts. Mechanistically, enhanced NLRP3 inflammasome expression with elevated IL-1β was a predominant feature during the initiation of colitis with miR-223 deficiency. Depletion of CCR2+ inflammatory monocytes and pharmacologic blockade of IL-1β or NLRP3 abrogated this phenotype. Generation of a novel mouse line, with deletion of the miR-223 binding site in the NLRP3 3′ untranslated region, phenocopied the characteristics of miR-223-/y mice. Finally, nanoparticle-mediated overexpression of miR-223 attenuated experimental colitis, NLRP3 levels, and IL-1β release. Collectively, our data reveal a previously unappreciated role for miR-223 in regulating the innate immune response during intestinal inflammation

Selective Association of Peroxiredoxin 1 with Genomic DNA and COX-2 Upstream Promoter Elements in Estrogen Receptor Negative Breast Cancer Cells

PRDX1 was identified as a protein preferentially crosslinked to DNA in estrogen receptor negative but not in estrogen receptor positive breast cancer cells. In estrogen receptor negative cells, PRDX1 is phosphorylated, binds to NF-κB, and is recruited to COX-2 upstream promoter elements

Expression of hereditary hemochromatosis C282Y HFE protein in HEK293 cells activates specific endoplasmic reticulum stress responses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hereditary Hemochromatosis (HH) is a genetic disease associated with iron overload, in which individuals homozygous for the mutant C282Y <it>HFE </it>associated allele are at risk for the development of a range of disorders particularly liver disease. Conformational diseases are a class of disorders associated with the expression of misfolded protein. HFE C282Y is a mutant protein that does not fold correctly and consequently is retained in the Endoplasmic Reticulum (ER). In this context, we sought to identify ER stress signals associated with mutant C282Y HFE protein expression, which may have a role in the molecular pathogenesis of HH.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Vector constructs of Wild type HFE and Mutant C282Y HFE were made and transfected into HEK293 cell lines. We have shown that expression of C282Y HFE protein triggers both an unfolded protein response (UPR), as revealed by the increased GRP78, ATF6 and CHOP expression, and an ER overload response (EOR), as indicated by NF-κB activation. Furthermore, C282Y HFE protein induced apoptotic responses associated with activation of ER stress. Inhibition studies demonstrated that tauroursodeoxycholic acid, an endogenous bile acid, downregulates these events. Finally, we found that the co-existence of both C282Y HFE and Z alpha 1-antitrypsin protein (the protein associated with the liver disease of Z alpha 1-antitrypsin deficiency) expression on ER stress responses acted as potential disease modifiers with respect to each other.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our novel observations suggest that both the ER overload response (EOR) and the unfolded protein response (UPR) are activated by mutant C282Y HFE protein.</p