A System Dynamics Model Of Exchange Rate Determination And Forecasting

Objective: The objective of this paper is to develop a model of exchange rate determination and forecasting to provide reasonable forecasts for the exchange rate to facilitate long-term investments. Design: The study develops the model using the system dynamics method. Grounded on the fundamental theories, the model incorporates nonlinear feedback relationships of interest rate, inflation, per capita income, terms of trade, and oil prices with the exchange rate. Findings: The simulation results indicate the robustness of the model to mimic not only the long term past behavior of the exchange rate but also its ability to provide a reliable long-term forecast for the exchange rate. The model is portable and applies to any oil-exporting country after calibration. Policy Implications: The study has practical implications for individuals, businesses, and the Government because they are all influenced by the exchange rate movements. Specifically, this model provides a useful tool for long term strategic financial planning of oil firms. Originality: The study develops a model for exchange rate accounting for nonlinear feedback relationships among the variables

Essays in Corporate Finance

Firm value creation and maximization is the primary objective of any firm and the most debated issue in corporate finance. Firms operate in the market to create value for the stakeholders. Valuation plays its role in many areas such as mergers and acquisitions, portfolio management and corporate finance. Corporate finance focuses on maximizing the value through the corporate strategy development, policy design, and financial decisions, as the value can be directly influenced by the decisions a firm makes, such as investments it makes, how they are financed, and the dividends offered. Feedback mechanisms formed by the variety of physical and managerial processes in the firm, the associated physical and financial accumulation processes, and their synergies formed by the non-linear interrelationships between them, contribute to the dynamic complexity of firm value creation and thus to its maximization over time. To manage the firm value effectively over time, strategic planning is called for, that aims at translating the corporate objectives into policies that govern the resource allocation decisions. A variety of tools are employed for strategic planning purposes. The inadequacy of long- range planning tools is, however, a commonly cited reason for corporate failure to achieve the stated objectives. Specifically, the complexity is at the core of strategic corporate finance management, yet research on that complexity has rarely been the subject of non-linear, dynamic feedback analysis. This dissertation enriches the corporate finance literature that deals with the firm value maximization by exploring the dynamic complexity of firm value maximization objective in the oil and gas sector, that is associated with high risk and return. The dissertation uses an international oil and gas firm, Equinor, headquartered in Norway, as a case. In its very nature, the oil and gas sector is very complex and the decisions made are characterized by uncertainty. For example, long-term and irreversible investment decisions are made based on uncertain and volatile oil price expectations. Thus, the value creation and its maximization become challenging and requires a systemic approach to the strategy development, policy design and decision making, - an approach that can account for the prevailing complexity characterizing both the firm and the environment in which it operates. Despite the extensive literature that exists on this topic, the debate on how strategies, policies and the resulting decision making affect the variety of physical and financial processes in such a firm, and how the interaction between these processes determines the outcome performance, i.e., the value creation and maximization over time, is sparse. Thus, the core objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of firm value creation and maximization. For this purpose, the dissertation applies the system dynamics method to address the five major research questions, - each at the core of an article. System dynamics is suitable for this study because it enables us to represent and analyze the non-linear feedback mechanisms and the associated accumulation processes, all present in a firm aimed at maximizing its value. It thus provides us with tools to adequately address the complex dynamic problems and to design and assess the impact of policies over time. The dissertation consists of an overall introduction followed by five articles. The purpose of the first article is to address the impact of the investment policy on the firm value in the presence of uncertain oil prices and, moreover, to propose an investment policy, that maximizes the firm value, given the prevailing oil and gas price expectations. The article documents a system dynamics model that portrays the case firm, incorporating the aggregated financial and physical processes of the firm required to produce oil and gas. The model operationalizes the discounted free cash flow (DCF) valuation method applied to perform the valuation of the firm. Testing various policy alternatives for the investment policy reveals that increasing the volume of investments over the current volume, reduces the cash flows and the total firm value over the first twenty years of the simulation period, but it increases the firm value thereafter as the new investments then yield returns. However, the investment policy which assumes a higher volume of investments than the current level decreases the market price per share, which is quite counter intuitive that I explain as follows. The capital required to finance the increased volume of investments requires issuance of higher number of shares that leads to decrease in the market price per share. The results highlight the short- term versus long-term trade-off faced by the firm managers; either to lower the volume of investments compared to the current level to increase the market price per share in the short- run, or to increase the volume of investments compared to the current level to realize the increased market price per share in the long-run after affording decreased market price per share in the short-run. The second article addresses the financing policy as a tool to enhance the firm value. The article builds on the base model from the first article and incorporates a module that incorporates the causal relationships between the factors that make up the financing policy, - as postulated by the theories. Various policy alternatives of debt and equity mix are analysed under different scenarios to assess their impact on the firm value and to identify the financing mix that maximizes the firm value. The simulation results reveal that increasing the debt percentage in the financing mix of the firm increases the total firm value and the market price per share and vice versa. The third article analyses the impact of dividend policy on the firm value and proposes the best combination of investment, financing, and dividend policies for the firm value maximization. Building on the system dynamics model developed in article 2, this article integrates a dividend policy by adding a structure based on the relevant theories. Various dividend policy alternatives and scenarios combinations have been simulated and analysed to identify the policies that maximize the market price per share. The simulation results reveal that lowering the volume of investments, increasing the percentage of debt in the financing mix, and lowering the dividend payment increases the market price per share as compared to the base case that assumes that the firm continues with the current policies. These policies lead to the increased future cash flows of the firm and reduced discounting rate, thus increased market price per share as per the discounted cash flow method. This study has implications for the policy makers and concludes that the combined outcome of the policies should be considered to achieve the value maximization objective. Article 4 develops a model of exchange rate determination and forecasting to provide a reasonable long-term forecast for the exchange rate. As described by the interest rate parity (IRP) and the purchasing power parity (PPP) theories, the model developed for article 4 incorporates the nonlinear relationships between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic factors, including the interest rate, inflation, per capita income, terms of trade and the oil prices. The simulation results reveal that the model can mimic reasonably well the historic behavior of long-term exchange rate and thus provides insightful long-term forecasts for the future development of the exchange rate. This study has implications for individuals, businesses, and the Government because they are affected directly or indirectly by the exchange rate movements, and the study contributes to the debate on exchange rate determination and forecasting. Article 5 explores as how the changes in exchange rate (i.e., appreciation or depreciation of the local currency) influence the value of an international firm – the case firm. The study integrates the system dynamics-based model from article 4 into the model developed in article 3 to endogenize the exchange rate and analyze its impact on value of the case firm. The results reveal that an appreciation of the local currency, Norwegian Kroner (NOK), against the US dollar leads to an increase in the market per share of the firm. The simulation results are quite counter intuitive and oppose many studies that report the positive influence of depreciation of local currency on firm value. The study has implications for the policy makers of the firm as well as Norway because any change in the macroeconomic factors and the consequent change in the exchange rate have an impact on the case firm as well as the Norwegian economy, as the case firm is a major contributor to the Norwegian exports. Understanding of the key factors involved and their impact on any possible change is vital to effectively manage the firm as well as the economy. Overall, the five articles contribute to the firm value creation and maximization debates on the methodological, the conceptual as well as the applied level. The dissertation contributes to the conceptualization of the elements involved to manage the firm to maximize the firm value, as well as the strategy (combined set of policies) and its underlying decisions that may help enhance the firm value while considering the macroeconomic factors beyond the control of a single firm. The dissertation translates the relationships between investment, financing, and dividend policies as well as macroeconomic factors to determine the exchange rate as described by the prior published theories into a system dynamics model and extend the span of the methodologies applied to study these intertwining relationships and the resulting firm value. The use of system dynamics, its peculiar focus on the accumulation processes and nonlinearities prevalent in the structure of the system that drive the behavior, reveal that the strategies and the policies are subject to organic, endogenous, and dynamic interactions that can contribute to the enhancement or detraction in the firm value. Thus, along with contributing to the discipline specific knowledge, the dissertation advocates the complementary benefits of system dynamics that facilitates the integration of the relationships described by different theories in a comprehensive model to prescribe the actions taken by the decision makers (resulting from the strategies developed and policies designed) to manage the firm to create the value and maximize it over time.Doktorgradsavhandlin

TINDAKAN MAIN HAKIM SENDIRI TERHADAP PELAKU PENCURIAN YANG MENGAKIBATKAN KEMATIAN PERSPEKTIF HUKUM ISLAM DAN KUHP

Tindakan main hakim sendiri hampir menyentuh seluruh didaerah Indonesia, baik kota besar maupun kota kecil. Penulis melihat dari Koran Sriwijaya Post didalam kasus pencurian yang terjadi di Desa Duren Ijo kecamatan Mariana Kabupaten Banyuasin, tewas setelah dihajar massa. Kejadian tersebut sekitar pukul 10:00. Ketika tersangka bernama Dedi Kurniawan dan Ari Wijaya sedang beraksi disini keduanya berhasil ditangkap dan dimassa sehingga membuat Dedi Kurniawan Tewas. Sedangkan Ari Wijaya luka-luka sehingga dilarikan ke RS Bersalin Muhammadiyah Plaju maka penulis tertarik untuk mengkaji skripisi dengan judul tindakan main hakim sendiri terhadap pelaku pencurian yang mengakibatkan kematian perspektif hukum Islam dan KUHP. Menghakimi sendiri para pelaku bukanlah merupakan cara yang tepat melainkan merupakan suatu pelanggaran hak asasi manusia dan telah memberikan kontribusi negatif terhadap proses penegakan hukum. Masyarakat lupa atau tidak tahu bahwa bukan hanya mereka yang memiliki hak asasi, para pelaku tindak pidanapun memiliki hak asasi yaitu hak untuk mendapatkan perlindungan hukum dimuka pengadilan, tidak boleh dilupakan penderitaan yang dialami pelaku tindak pidana karena walau bagaimanapun, mereka merupakan bagian dari manusia. Main hakim sendiri merupakan terjemahan dari istilah Belanda “Eigenriching” yang berarti cara main hakim sendiri, mengambil hak tanpa mengindahkan hukum, tanpa pengetahuan pemerintah dan tanpa penggunaan alat kekuasaan pemerintah. Selain itu main hakim sendiri adalah istilah dari tindakan untuk menghukum suatu pihak tanpa melewati proses yang sesuai dengan hukum. Penelitian ini dibuat untuk menjawab pertanyaan, bagaimana sanksi tindakan main hakim sendiri terhadap pelaku pencurian yang mengakibatkan kematian menurut hukum Islam dan bagaimana sanksi tindakan main hakim sendiri terhadap pelaku pencurian yang mengakibatkan kematian menurut Kitab UndangUndang Hukum Pidana (KUHP) ? Penelitian ini menggunakan jenis penelitian yuridis-normatif atau library research dengan menggunakan sumber data berupa bahan-bahan hukum kualitatif. Data dalam penelitian ini dianalisis dengan metode deskriptif analitis, yaitu metode yang bertujuan mendeskripsikan atau memberi gambaran terhdap suatu objek penelitian yang diteliti melalui data yang telah terkumpul dan membuat kesimpulan yang berlaku umum. Dalam ajaran Islam main hakim sendiri dianggap pebuatan jinayah. Karena dilihat dari unsur-unsur perbuatanya sehingga menimbulkan kerugian atau kerusakan agama, jiwa, akal, atau harta benda. Hukuman yang dapat dikenakan kepada pelaku pembunuhan secara sengaja dan tanpa ada pembenar secara syara‟ adalah hukuman qhisas. Apabila pihak korban/ wali memaafkan pelaku pembunuhan maka hukumannya pemberian denda (diyat) yang harus dibayarkan kepada keluarga (ahli waris) korban. Sedangkan di dalam KUHP tindakan main hakim sendiri terhadap pelaku pencurian dikategorikan penganiayaan. pasal yang mengatur tentang penganiayaan ialah pasal 351 KUHP

Dynamic Relationship between Income and Consumption: A Time Series Analysis of Spain

This study examined the household and government consumption with income separately both in short and long run.The data is collected from the WDI from 1960 to 2010 of spain. Analysis is  done by using the co integration technique and error correction model. The results of the study demonstrate that household consumption is more than that of income in short run but in long run with the adjustment rate of 7% the consumption is less than income. In contrast ,the expenditures of government and consumption is more than that of its income in long run and vice versa. The reason for the more expenditures in long run is due to the debt financing. Keywords: Income, Consumption, Co integration, Error correction model, Spai

Sustainability Entrepreneurship Supply Chain in Family Business

A Family business is a company whose majority shareholder is a family, and the position of manager (management) is controlled by family members and it is expected that the family descendants will follow in their footsteps later as managers. In this context, the application of the concept of sustainable supply chain management in the operation strategy of small business seems to be an important function. This supply chain also covers all three aspects of sustainable development: business, environmental, and social. The purpose of this article is to present the current state of the research in sustainable development in relation to managing the supply chain of family business, as well as the empirical findings in this area. This research supposed to analysis of the comparison of Entrepreneurial supply chain and sustainability of family business in China and Indonesia. This research done with Quantitative Method using SEM / Generalized Structured Component Analysis (GeSCA) program by visiting and interviewing with Family business China and Indonesia. The population in this study was a sample of 100 people. The sampling technique is random sampling. This research proves: 1). Leadership, Culture and Innovation have a significant effect on the Entrepreneurial supply chain in Indonesia and China; 2). Leadership and Innovation have a significant effect in Family Business Sustainability. 3). The Entrepreneurial supply chain, Culture and Innovation have a significant effect on the Sustainability of the Family Business, whereas the Leadership is not significant on the Sustainability of the Family Business in China; 4). Entrepreneurial supply chain does not mediate the influence of Leadership, Culture and Innovation on the Sustainability of Family Businesses in Indonesia; but Entrepreneurial supply chain mediates the influence of Leadership, Culture and Innovation on the Sustainability of Family Businesses in China

PROBLEMATIKA PEMBELAJARAN ONLINE PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19: STUDI KASUS MAHASISWA STIQ AMUNTAI

STIQ Amuntai adalah salah satu perguruan tinggi yang memberlakukan pembelajaran secara online. Pembelajaran yang dilakukan secara online tentunya menimbulkan polemik dikalangan mahasiswa dan dosen. Banyak tantangan dan problematika yang dihadapi oleh mahasiswa dan dosen dalam melaksanakan pembelajaran online. Namun dalam hal ini peneliti hanya  membahas problematika yang dihadapi mahasiswa dalam melaksanakan pembelajaran secara online. Dalam penelitian ini, peneliti  berusaha  mengindentifikasi problem yang dihadapi mahasiswa dalam pembelajaran online dan  menemukan solusi dari problem  tersebut agar pembelajaran berjalan secara optimal. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif. Subjek dalam penelitian ini adalah mahasiswa STIQ Amuntai, sedangkan objek dalam penelitian ini adalah problem yang dihadapi mahasiswa STIQ Amuntai dalam melaksanakan pembelajaran online. Hasil Penelitian menunjukan problem yang dihadapi mahasiswa STIQ Amuntai dalam melaksanakan pembelajaran online yaitu: 1). Ketersediaan jaringan internet. Dalam hal ini, mahasiswa yang tinggal dipedesaan cukup kesulitan untuk mengakses jaringan internet karena tidak tersedianya layanan internet di desa mereka. Selain itu juga mahasiswa mengeluhkan kouta internet yang cukup besar dalam mengikuti pembelajaran online, seperti penggunaan zoom, dan google meet yang cukup menguras kebutuhan internet. 2). Kurang maksimalnya kemampuan mahasiswa/i dalam memahami materi pembelajaran. Media yang digunakan dosen dalam pembelajaran online di STIQ Amuntai cukup bervariasi, mulai dari google meet, zoom meeting, google form, dll.  Media yang digunakan tersebut tentu saja memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing.  Pembelajaran yang menggunakan WA grup memang memiliki kelebihan tetapi tidak terlalu menguras kouta internet, namun pembelajaran kurang interaktif. Pembelajaran menggunkan zoom dan google meet memang memudahkan untuk berkomunikasi secara langung, tapi cukup menguras kouta internet. 3). Biaya, beberapa mahasiswa/I STIQ Amuntai mengeluhkan banyaknya biaya yang harus mereka keluarkan untuk kebutuhan kouta internet dalam melaksanakan pembelajaran daring.@font-face {font-family:"Cordia New"; panose-1:2 11 3 4 2 2 2 2 2 4; mso-font-charset:222; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-2130706429 0 0 0 65537 0;}@font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-536870145 1107305727 0 0 415 0;}@font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-469750017 -1073732485 9 0 511 0;}@font-face {font-family:Garamond; panose-1:2 2 4 4 3 3 1 1 8 3; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:647 0 0 0 159 0;}p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0cm; margin-right:0cm; margin-bottom:8.0pt; margin-left:0cm; line-height:107%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:14.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Cordia New"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-US; mso-bidi-language:TH;}p {mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman",serif; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;}.MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:11.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:14.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Cordia New"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-US; mso-bidi-language:TH;}.MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:8.0pt; line-height:107%;}div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;

Pelatihan Membuat Soal Matematika Secara Daring Menggunakan Aplikasi Kahoot

In the world of education, it is currently commonly known as learning media that can be used as teaching aids for teachers to make it easier for students to understand the material being taught. Learning media can clarify the presentation of messages and information from teachers to students so that they can facilitate and improve learning processes and outcomes. Learning media can also overcome the limitations of the senses, space and time. One form of media is Kahoot. Kahoot is a game-based learning platform that uses educational technology in schools and other educational institutions. Kahoot is in the form of a multiple choice quiz game application or a survey of opinions and opinions of students or members of public institutions conducted online via a browser. learning through Kahoot is very easy to implement. Kahoot can be played through different browsers to browsers installed on student gadgets. The Kahoot application is very interesting, because the teacher can create quizzes by inserting pictures or videos in the problem so that it can attract students' attention. Kahoot is because the question is equipped with an image or video. Even using short expressions, accompanied by music that is appropriate for their age. Not only that, kahoot can be a form of online interactive media

The Relationship between audit committee, political influence and financial reporting quality: Malaysian evidence / Aziatul Waznah Ghazalia and Nur Aima Shafie.

This paper examines the relationship between audit committee, political influence and financial reporting quality of Malaysian listed companies. This study consists of pool data of 3,215 firm-year observations listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia from year 2010 to 2014. The study uses logistic regression to test the association between audit committee, political influence and financial reporting quality. The results are also robust with the inclusion of Firth logit analysis. The current findings indicate that audit committee’s independence and the frequency of audit committee meetings are effective in controlling for both real earnings management and accounting misstatements. Nonetheless, in terms of audit committee size and audit committee’ audit expertise, the relationships are still insignificant. It is important to note that there is some improvement after the corporate governance reforms in 2010 since studies prior to the reforms found audit committee’s variables are ineffective towards a higher quality of financial reporting. Meanwhile, political influence is still relevant in a Malaysian business environment with regard to financial reporting quality, however, the aggressiveness of the influence may have been diluted by the improvement of recent corporate governance reform

Pengaruh Motivasi Kerja dan Disiplin terhadap Kinerja Guru di Lembaga Pendidikan Islam (Lpi) Nur Hikmah Bekasi

This study aims to determine the Influence of Motivation and Discipline on the Teacher Performance of Nur Hikmah Islamic Education Institute (LPI-NH) Bekasi either partially or simultaneously. The population in this study were 80 teachers in LPI-NH Bekasi, sample determination using formulas developed by Slovin to 65 teachers. Samples were taken using proportional random sampling technique. Method of collecting primary data in the form of questionnaire by using Likert scale. Validity and reliability testing using Pearson Product Moment and Cronbach Alpha statistics. The method of analysis to answer the hypothesis using multiple linear regression. The results showed that motivation and discipline have positive and significant influence either partially or simultaneously. Referring to the correlation matrix between dimensions, the highest correlation value is the dimension of adherence to the standard on the discipline variables on the dimensions of the implementation of learning on teacher performance variables. This suggests that a good learning quality will be achieved if the teacher is consistently disciplined to the standards set by the management. Through this research is expected to provide information and suggestions of strengthening to the LPI-NH management continue to make efforts to improve motivation and work discipline in order to make teacher performance can be optima