Governing Abroad

From Austria to New Zealand, coalition governments often pave the road to foreign policy. In Western Europe, nearly 90 percent of postwar governments include two or more political parties. Israel, the Middle East’s only consolidated democracy according to many, has never experienced single-party rule in its history. Even the United Kingdom, known for its long streak of single-party rule, now navigates multiparty cabinets. Coalitions are everywhere, but we still have little understanding of how they act in foreign affairs. History shows that coalitions can sometime engage in powerful international commitments such as participating in military operations, but at other times, they postpone their decisions, water down their policy positions, or promise to do less than they otherwise would. What explains these differences in behavior? Governing Abroad unpacks the little-known world of coalition governments to find out. Oktay argues that the specific constellation of parties in government explains why some coalitions can make more assertive foreign policy decisions than others. Building on the rich literature in political science on coalitions, legislatures, and voting behavior, the book weaves together sophisticated statistical analyses of foreign policy events across thirty European countries alongside in-depth case studies from Denmark, the Netherlands, and Finland. It brings political parties back into the study of foreign policy, demonstrating that the size of the coalition, the ideological proximity of the governing parties, and their relationship with the parliamentary opposition together influence the government’s ability to act in the international arena. This book challenges our existing perceptions about the constraints and weaknesses of coalition governments. It sheds new light on the conditions that allow them to act decisively abroad

Unpacking Coalitions: Explaining International Commitment in European Governments

A central debate in the Comparative Foreign Policy literature concerns the role of government composition on the international behavior of parliamentary democracies. For the past two decades, a multitude of studies have discussed whether single-party governments were more or less constrained than multiparty coalitions in their international behavior, yet they have failed to reach conclusive empirical findings. This dissertation responds to this puzzle by unpacking coalitions: as it captures the variation among coalition governments along mathematical and ideological dimensions, the dissertation introduces a nuanced \u27government composition\u27 approach to explain the international commitments of European parliamentary regimes during the post-Cold War period. To undertake this project, the dissertation utilizes the Comparative Politics literature on coalition theories, legislative politics and economic voting. Specifically, it introduces the veto players and clarity of government responsibility theories to frame the debate and to demonstrate that both theories remain inadequate in explaining commitment intensity unless two key variables are accounted for: (a) the types of multiparty governments that emerge in parliamentary systems and (b) the extent of ideological differences inside these coalitions, or their \u27policy incongruence.\u27 Furthermore, the dissertation challenges the existing understanding regarding the constrained nature of minority coalitions by bringing in the policy viability and fragmented opposition explanations into the analysis of foreign policy behavior. The dissertation employs a multi-method research strategy to comprehensively evaluate the analytical capacity of the \u27government composition\u27 explanation by (a) revealing the statistical relationships between government composition and international commitments, (b) uncovering the mechanisms that link the composition of governments to international commitments, and (c) testing the explanatory power of the \u27government composition\u27 approach against a series of alternative explanations at the individual, domestic and international levels. To these ends, the dissertation first utilizes a post-Cold War foreign policy events dataset to test the effects of government type and ideological cohesion by using multilevel regression techniques. Next, it complements these analyses with structured-focused case studies of the Danish decisions to join the 1990 Gulf and 2003 Iraq wars and the Dutch decision to support the 2003 Iraq war. The case studies evaluate a series of alternative explanations including public opinion, logrolling dynamics among political parties, threats to national survival and the role of political leadership as well as the domestic and international political contexts of these states to explain how they have decided to provide political and material support for these international military operations. The project firmly concludes that the dichotomous understanding of government composition that has long prevailed in the foreign policy literature is not only inadequate but misleading to explain the international commitments of parliamentary democracies. Quantitative and qualitative tests suggest that the type of multiparty governments and their ideological diversity together affect commitment intensity in different directions, through diverse mechanisms. Specifically, oversized coalitions engage in more intense commitments compared to single-party majority governments through responsibility diffusion. Minority coalitions engage in stronger commitments so long as their ideological setup leaves the parliamentary opposition fragmented, through policy viability. Finally, minimum winning coalitions can overcome their ideological fragility and increase their international commitments when the political parties engage in logrolling relationships with each other. The dissertation situates these findings within the context of factors that pertain to the motivations of key political leaders, domestic political norms and public opinion, as well as the broader historical foreign policy orientations of the states. With the conclusions of the statistical and case analyses, the dissertation ultimately offers a \u27coalition politics framework\u27 to explain foreign policy behavior in parliamentary regimes. In the end, the dissertation contributes to the literature on foreign policy analysis as the first study to introduce a multilevel, multicausal framework to evaluate the international behavior of parliamentary democracies

Explaining Turkish Party and Public Support for the EU

The three main Turkish political parties, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), each favor Turkish accession to the European Union, with varying degrees of reservations. Turkish public support for EU membership is also divided, with recent surveys showing only 50% of the population views the EU positively. In this paper, we first evaluate the extent of support for European integration among Turkish mainstream and minor parties using Chapel Hill Expert Survey data and case studies. Next, building from the vast literature on public and party support for the EU in western European states, we develop utilitarian and identity hypotheses to explain public support. Using Eurobarometer data, we test these explanations. In this analysis, we compare Turkish parties and public to their counterparts in eastern and western Europe

Quantitative approaches in coalition foreign policy : scope, content, process

This article surveys the quantitative literature in coalition foreign policy. Tracing its development back to what we call the ‘first generation studies’ in Democratic Peace research, we illustrate that its theoretical and methodological foundations distinguish this literature from its predecessors. We then overview the existing studies along three dimensions: the nature of the dependent variables, the content of the key explanatory variables, and the processes that identify and systematise the institutional factors that influence coalition foreign policy. Our suggestions for future research highlight some of the puzzles motivated by the findings of this literature and the promise of multi-method designs.PostprintPeer reviewe

TIME TO RECONSIDER? THE CHAOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND TURKISH SUPPORT FOR THE EU

Support for European integration among Turks has dropped from 67% in 2002 to 34% in 2008, with only 42% of Turks supporting enlargement in a 2011 Eurobarometer. As previous research on Turkish Euroskepticism has demonstrated, the opposition to Turkish enlargement within European states—the so-called ‘Turkoskepticism,’ as well as Turkish economic growth and identity-based concerns are likely reasons for this declining trend. In this study, we push these findings further to demonstrate the effects of Turkish foreign policy on EU support. Do the Turks find the EU more favorable as their concerns on Iran, political Islam, or the Syrian civil war increase? Using Pew Global Attitudes Project survey from 2013, we demonstrate that as Turks view their regional neighborhood increasingly volatile and threatening, they see the European Union as a more favorable actor. This effect is consistent across different model specifications, and illustrates that concerns over the international political context is just as important in explaining Turkish public attitudes toward the EU as some of the well-established utilitarian explanations of support

The impact of the Eastern enlargement of the European Union on the Euro-Mediterranean partnership: an analysis of member state preferences

The Barcelona Process / Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) is a foreign policy instrument to handle the southern neighborhood of the European Union. The EMP aims at creating an area of peace, stability and prosperity in the region. The enlargement waves of the European Union in 2004 and 2007 have brought 12 new member states, ten of which are the ex-Soviet states situated at the Central and Eastern Europe. This massive, eastern-oriented enlargement induced the European Commission to introduce the Wider Europe-European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) to establish a secure and coherent neighborhood along its new borders in the east. Although the ENP aims at bringing both the eastern and southern dimensions of European neighborhood, empirical data show that the pro-eastern policy preferences of the newly admitted member states along with Germany cause the ENP to move closer to the east at the expense of the South, therefore negatively affecting the present and the future of the EMP. This is because of the increased bargaining power of the new members, shifting the locus of power from Western Europe to Mittel Europa. The recent statements of pro-South EU members such as France might be a new impetus for the EMP, although one should be critical towards such individualistic policy proposals

Combining artificial neural network and moth-flame optimization algorithm for optimization of ultrasound-assisted and microwave-assisted extraction parameters: Bark of Pinus brutia

In this study, the extraction parameters of Pinus brutia bark were optimized using a hybrid artificial intelligence technique. Firstly, the bark samples were extracted by ultrasound-assisted extraction and microwave-assisted extraction which are defined as ‘green’ extraction methods at different conditions. The selected extraction parameters for ultrasound-assisted extraction were 0:100; 20:80; 40:60; 80:20 (%) ethanol: water ratios; 40 ºC, 60 °C extraction temperatures and 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, 20 min extraction times and for microwave-assisted extraction were 90, 180, 360, 600, 900 (W) microwave power, 0:100; 20:80; 40:60; 60:40; 80:20 (%) ethanol: water ratios. Then Stiasny number, condensed tannin content and reducing sugar content of all extracts were determined. Next, the prediction models were developed for each studied parameter using Artificial Neural Network. Finally, the extraction parameters were optimized using Moth-Flame Optimization Algorithm. After that optimization process, while the extraction time was the same (5 min), the ethanol: water ratio and extraction temperature values differed for the optimization of all studied assays of ultrasound-assisted extraction. Also, microwave power and ethanol: water ratio variables were found in different values for each assay of microwave-assisted extraction. The results showed that the Artificial Neural Network and Moth-Flame Optimization could be a novel and powerful hybrid approach to optimize the extraction parameters of Pinus brutia barks with saving time, cost, chemical and effort

Aile Hekimliği Polikliniğine Başvuran Hastaların Ruh Sağlığı Okuryazarlığı Durumunun Değerlendirilmesi

Amaç: Ruh sağlığı okuryazarlığı (RSOY) ruh sağlığı bozukluklarını tanıma, yönetme ve önlemeye yönelik bilgi ve inançları ifade etmektedir. Ruh sağlığı bozukluklarının erken teşhisinde kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; kişilerin anksiyete ve depresyona yönelik semptom düzeylerini belirlemek ve RSOY durumlarını değerlendirmektir. Gereç ve Yöntem: Bu prospektif çalışma tanımlayıcı ve tek merkezli olarak tasarlandı. Çalışma üçüncü basamak bir hastanenin Aile Hekimliği Polikliniği’ne başvuran 18-65 yaş arası hastalardan çalışmaya dahil edilme kriterlerini karşılayanlar ile yapıldı. Katılımcıların sosyodemografik ve tıbbi özellikleri hasta bilgi formu ile sorgulandı. Hastane Anksiyete ve Depresyon Ölçeği (HADÖ) ile anksiyete ve depresyona yönelik semptom düzeyleri, Ruh Sağlığı Okuryazarlığı Ölçeği (RSOYÖ) ile RSOY düzeyleri değerlendirildi. Bulgular: Çalışmaya dahil edilen 327 hastanın yaş ortalaması 38,95±11,94 yıl olup çoğu kadın (n=216; %66,1) idi. HADÖ’ye göre ortalama anksiyete skoru 7,90±4,54, depresyon skoru 6,97±4,36 idi. Ortalama total RSOYÖ skoru 14,05±3,49, bilgi odaklı RSOY skoru 7,56±1,93, inanç odaklı RSOY skoru 4,17±1,83, kaynak odaklı RSOY skoru 2,28±1,54 idi. Yaş ile RSOYÖ total skoru arasında ters yönlü ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulundu (p=0,001). Eğitim durumları arasında RSOY toplam skoru açısından anlamlı bir farklılık saptandı (p=0,000). RSOY total skoru ile HADÖ anksiyete ve depresyon skorları arasında ters yönlü ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulundu (sırasıyla p=0,041; p=0,000). Sonuç: Çalışmamızda RSOY orta düzeyde bulunmuş olup anksiyete ve depresyona yönelik semptom düzeyleri yüksek olanlarda daha düşük olarak saptandı. Bununla birlikte RSOY düzeyinin ilerleyen yaş ve kronik hastalık varlığından da olumsuz etkilendiği ve eğitim düzeyi yüksek olanlarda, evli olanlarda, herhangi bir işte çalışanlarda daha yüksek olduğu görüldü

Evaluation of anxiety in doctors working in new type 2019 COVID and non-COVID services

Amaç: Bu çalışma İstanbul’da bir vakıf üniversitesi hastaneler kompleksinde yeni tip 2019 koronavirüs hastalığı (COVID) ve COVID dışı servislerde çalışan hekimlerde anksiyetenin değerlendirilmesi amacıyla yapılmış tanımlayıcı bir çalışmadır. Gereç ve Yöntem: Çalışma kapsamına, pandemi servislerinde çalışan 50, pandemi dışı servislerde çalışan 52 hekim alınmıştır. Veri toplama aracı olarak hekimlerin sosyo-demografik ve mesleki bazı özelliklerini içeren anket formu ve durumluk-süreklilik kaygı ölçeği kullanılmıştır. Veriler online anket uygulaması yoluyla toplanmıştır. Verilerin değerlendirilmesinde verilerin normal dağılım gösterip göstermediğine Shapiro-Wilk normallik testi ile bakılmıştır. Verilerin normal dağılım göstermediği için iki grup karşılaştırmalarında Mann-Whitney U testi, ikiden fazla grup karşılaştırmalarında ise Kruskal-Wallis testi kullanılmıştır. Korelasyon analizinde ise Pearson korelasyon analizi yapılmıştır. Bulgular: Çalışmamızda pandemi servislerinde çalışan hekimlerin durumluk kaygı puan ortalamalarının, pandemi dışı servislerde çalışan hekimlerin kaygı puan ortalamalarından daha yüksek olduğu ve aradaki farkın istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu saptanmıştır (p<0,05). Cinsiyete göre pandemi servisinde çalışan kadın hekimlerin durumluk kaygı puan ortalamalarının erkek hekimlerden daha yüksek ve farkın istatistiksel olarak önemli olduğu belirlenmiştir (p<0,05). Yaş gruplarına göre pandemi servislerinde çalışan 43 yaş ve üzerindeki hekimlerin süreklilik kaygı puan ortalamalarının diğer yaş gruplarındaki hekimlerden daha düşük ve farkın istatistiksel olarak önemli olduğu saptanmıştır (p<0,05). Hem pandemi servislerinde çalışan hekimlerin hem de pandemi servisleri dışında çalışan hekimlerin durumluk ve süreklilik kaygı ölçeği puan ortalamaları arasında pozitif yönlü kuvvetli ilişki saptanmıştır (p<0,05). Yani durumluk kaygı arttıkça süreklilik kaygı, süreklilik kaygı arttıkça durumluk kaygı da artmaktadır. Sonuç: Çalışmamızda pandemi servislerinde çalışan hekimlerin durumluk kaygısının diğer servislerde çalışan hekimlerden daha fazla olduğu ve süreklilik kaygısı arasında bir fark bulunamaması pandemi servisinde çalışmanın anksiyeteye neden olduğunu göstermektedir.Objective: This descriptive study was conducted in a foundation university hospital complex in Istanbul and aimed to evaluate the anxiety in physicians who provide new type 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID) related and non-COVID-19-related services. Materials and Methods: This study included 50 physicians who provide COVID-19-related services and 52 physicians with non-COVID-19-related services. A questionnaire that contains sociodemographic and occupational characteristics of physicians and a state-trait anxiety scale were used as data collection tools. Data were collected through an online survey application. Data analysis checked the variable distribution using the Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Since no normal distribution was found, the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparisons of two groups, and the Kruskal-Wallis test was used for comparisons of more than two groups. The Pearson correlation analysis was performed for correlation analysis. Results: Our study determined significantly higher mean state anxiety scores of physicians who provide COVID-19-related services than that of the other group (p<0.05). According to age groups, the mean trait anxiety scores of physicians aged 43 years and over who provide COVID-19-related services were significantly lower than that in physicians who provide non-COVID-19-related services (p<0.05). A strong positive correlation was found in the state and trait anxiety scale mean scores between both groups (p<0.05). Therefore, state and trait anxiety increase in correlation. Conclusion: Our study revealed higher state anxiety of physicians who provide COVID-19-related services than that of physicians who provide non-COVID-19-related services. Additionally, no difference was found in the trait anxiety, which indicates that working in the pandemic services causes anxiety

Outcomes of high-risk breast lesions diagnosed using image-guided core needle biopsy: results from a multicenter retrospective study

PURPOSEThe clinical management of high-risk lesions using image-guided biopsy is challenging. This study aimed to evaluate the rates at which such lesions were upgraded to malignancy and identify possible predictive factors for upgrading high-risk lesions.METHODSThis retrospective multicenter analysis included 1.343 patients diagnosed with high-risk lesions using an image-guided core needle or vacuum-assisted biopsy (VAB). Only patients managed using an excisional biopsy or with at least one year of documented radiological follow-up were included. For each, the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) category, number of samples, needle thickness, and lesion size were correlated with malignancy upgrade rates in different histologic subtypes. Pearson’s chi-squared test, the Fisher–Freeman–Halton test, and Fisher’s exact test were used for the statistical analyses.RESULTSThe overall upgrade rate was 20.6%, with the highest rates in the subtypes of intraductal papilloma (IP) with atypia (44.7%; 55/123), followed by atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) (38.4%; 144/375), lobular neoplasia (LN) (12.7%; 7/55), papilloma without atypia (9.4%; 58/611), flat epithelial atypia (FEA) (8.7%; 10/114), and radial scars (RSs) (4.6%; 3/65). There was a significant relationship between the upgrade rate and BI-RADS category, number of samples, and lesion size Lesion size was the most predictive factor for an upgrade in all subtypes.CONCLUSIONADH and atypical IP showed considerable upgrade rates to malignancy, requiring surgical excision. The LN, IP without atypia, pure FEA, and RS subtypes showed lower malignancy rates when the BI-RADS category was lower and in smaller lesions that had been adequately sampled using VAB. After being discussed in a multidisciplinary meeting, these cases could be managed with follow-up instead of excision