How Feedback Can Improve Managerial Evaluations of Model-based Marketing Decision Support Systems

Marketing managers often provide much poorer evaluations of model-based marketing decision support systems (MDSSs) than are warranted by the objective performance of those systems. We show that a reason for this discrepant evaluation may be that MDSSs are often not designed to help users understand and internalize the underlying factors driving the MDSS results and related recommendations. Thus, there is likely to be a gap between a marketing manager’s mental model and the decision model embedded in the MDSS. We suggest that this gap is an important reason for the poor subjective evaluations of MDSSs, even when the MDSSs are of high objective quality, ultimately resulting in unreasonably low levels of MDSS adoption and use. We propose that to have impact, an MDSS should not only be of high objective quality, but should also help reduce any mental model-MDSS model gap. We evaluate two design characteristics that together lead model-users to update their mental models and reduce the mental model-MDSS gap, resulting in better MDSS evaluations: providing feedback on the upside potential for performance improvement and providing specific suggestions for corrective actions to better align the user's mental model with the MDSS. We hypothesize that, in tandem, these two types of MDSS feedback induce marketing managers to update their mental models, a process we call deep learning, whereas individually, these two types of feedback will have much smaller effects on deep learning. We validate our framework in an experimental setting, using a realistic MDSS in the context of a direct marketing decision problem. We then discuss how our findings can lead to design improvements and better returns on investments in MDSSs such as CRM systems, Revenue Management systems, pricing decision support systems, and the like.Learning;Feedback;Marketing Decision Models;Marketing Decision Support Systems;Marketing Information Systems

How Feedback Can Improve Managerial Evaluations of Model-based Marketing Decision Support Systems

Marketing managers often provide much poorer evaluations of model-based marketing decision support systems (MDSSs) than are warranted by the objective performance of those systems. We show that a reason for this discrepant evaluation may be that MDSSs are often not designed to help users understand and internalize the underlying factors driving the MDSS results and related recommendations. Thus, there is likely to be a gap between a marketing manager’s mental model and the decision model embedded in the MDSS. We suggest that this gap is an important reason for the poor subjective evaluations of MDSSs, even when the MDSSs are of high objective quality, ultimately resulting in unreasonably low levels of MDSS adoption and use. We propose that to have impact, an MDSS should not only be of high objective quality, but should also help reduce any mental model-MDSS model gap. We evaluate two design characteristics that together lead model-users to update their mental models and reduce the mental model-MDSS gap, resulting in better MDSS evaluations: providing feedback on the upside potential for performance improvement and providing specific suggestions for corrective actions to better align the user's mental model with the MDSS. We hypothesize that, in tandem, these two types of MDSS feedback induce marketing managers to update their mental models, a process we call deep learning, whereas individually, these two types of feedback will have much smaller effects on deep learning. We validate our framework in an experimental setting, using a realistic MDSS in the context of a direct marketing decision problem. We then discuss how our findings can lead to design improvements and better returns on investments in MDSSs such as CRM systems, Revenue Management systems, pricing decision support systems, and the like

A new sample of giant radio galaxies from the WENSS survey II - A multi-frequency radio study of a complete sample: Properties of the radio lobes and their environment

We have formed a complete sample of 26 low redshift (z < 0.3) giant radio galaxies (GRGs) from the WENSS survey, selected at flux densities above 1 Jy at 325 MHz. We present 10.5-GHz observations with the 100-m Effelsberg telescope of 18 sources in this sample. These observations, together with similar data of the remaining eight sources, are combined with data from the WENSS, NVSS and GB6 surveys to study the radio properties of the lobes of these sources at arcminute resolution. We investigate radio source asymmetries, equipartition energy densities in the lobes, the presence of lobe pressure evolution with redshift, the spectral age and the density of the environments of these sources. We find that the armlength asymmetries of GRGs are slightly larger than those of smaller sized 3CR radio galaxies and that these are difficult to explain as arising from orientation effects only. We also find indications that the lobes of the GRGs, despite their large sizes, are still overpressured with respect to their environment. Further, we argue that any evolution of lobe pressure with redshift in these large sources is due to selection effects. A spectral ageing analysis suggests that the GRGs in our sample are the oldest members of the group of relatively high power radio sources whose radio powers have evolved to their currently observed lower values.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics Supplement Serie

An Imaging and Spectroscopic Study of the z=3.38639 Damped Lyman Alpha System in Q0201+1120: Clues to Star Formation Rate at High Redshift

We present the results of a series of imaging and spectroscopic observations aimed at identifying and studying the galaxy responsible for the z = 3.38639 damped lya system in the z = 3.61 QSO Q0201+1120. We find that the DLA is part of a concentration of matter which includes at least four galaxies (probably many more) over linear comoving dimensions, greater than 5h^-1Mpc. The absorber may be a 0.7 L* galaxy at an impact parameter of 15 h^-1 kpc, but follow-up spectroscopy is still required for positive identification. The gas is turbulent, with many absorption components distributed over approximately 270 km/s and a large spin temperature, T_s greater than 4000K. The metallicity is relatively high for this redshift, Z(DLA) approximately 1/20 Z(solar). From consideration of the relative ratios of elements which have different nucleosynthetic timescales, it would appear that the last major episode of star formation in this DLA occurred at z greater than 4.3, more than approximately 500 Myr prior to the time when we observe it.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Implications from clean observables for the binned analysis of B -> K*ll at large recoil

We perform a frequentist analysis of q^2-dependent B-> K*(->Kpi)ll angular observables at large recoil, aiming at bridging the gap between current theoretical analyses and the actual experimental measurements. We focus on the most appropriate set of observables to measure and on the role of the q^2-binning. We highlight the importance of the observables P_i exhibiting a limited sensitivity to soft form factors for the search for New Physics contributions. We compute predictions for these binned observables in the Standard Model, and we compare them with their experimental determination extracted from recent LHCb data. Analyzing b->s and b->sll transitions within four different New Physics scenarios, we identify several New Physics benchmark points which can be discriminated through the measurement of P_i observables with a fine q^2-binning. We emphasise the importance (and risks) of using observables with (un)suppressed dependence on soft form factors for the search of New Physics, which we illustrate by the different size of hadronic uncertainties attached to two related observables (P_1 and S_3). We illustrate how the q^2-dependent angular observables measured in several bins can help to unravel New Physics contributions to B-> K*(->Kpi)ll, and show the extraordinary constraining power that the clean observables will have in the near future. We provide semi-numerical expressions for these observables as functions of the relevant Wilson coefficients at the low scale.Comment: 50 pages, 21 figures. Improved form factor analysis, conclusions unchanged. Plots with full resolution. Version published in JHE

Supersymmetric constraints from Bs -> mu+mu- and B -> K* mu+mu- observables

We study the implications of the recent LHCb limit and results on Bs -> mu+mu- and B -> K* mu+mu- observables in the constrained SUSY scenarios. After discussing the Standard Model predictions and carefully estimating the theoretical errors, we show the constraining power of these observables in CMSSM and NUHM. The latest limit on BR(Bs -> mu+mu-), being very close to the SM prediction, constrains strongly the large tan(beta) regime and we show that the various angular observables from B -> K* mu+mu- decay can provide complementary information in particular for moderate tan(beta) values.Comment: 30 pages, 14 figure

Development and geometry of isotropic and directional shrinkage crack patterns

We have studied shrinkage crack patterns which form when a thin layer of an alumina/water slurry dries. Both isotropic and directional drying were studied. The dynamics of the pattern formation process and the geometric properties of the isotropic crack patterns are similar to what is expected from recent models, assuming weak disorder. There is some evidence for a gradual increase in disorder as the drying layer become thinner, but no sudden transition, in contrast to what has been seen in previous experiments. The morphology of the crack patterns is influenced by drying gradients and front propagation effects, with sharp gradients having a strong orienting and ordering effect.Comment: 8 pages, 11 figures, 8 in jpg format, 3 in postscript. See also http://mobydick.physics.utoronto.ca/mud.htm

Radio emission of highly inclined cosmic ray air showers measured with LOPES

LOPES-10 (the first phase of LOPES, consisting of 10 antennas) detected a significant number of cosmic ray air showers with a zenith angle larger than 50$^{\circ}$, and many of these have very high radio field strengths. The most inclined event that has been detected with LOPES-10 has a zenith angle of almost 80$^{\circ}$. This is proof that the new technique is also applicable for cosmic ray air showers with high inclinations, which in the case that they are initiated close to the ground, can be a signature of neutrino events.Our results indicate that arrays of simple radio antennas can be used for the detection of highly inclined air showers, which might be triggered by neutrinos. In addition, we found that the radio pulse height (normalized with the muon number) for highly inclined events increases with the geomagnetic angle, which confirms the geomagnetic origin of radio emission in cosmic ray air showers.Comment: A&A accepte

Jet- and Wind-Driven Ionized Outflows in the Superbubble and Star-Forming Disk of NGC 3079

HST WFPC2 images are presented that span the inner 19 kpc diameter of the edge-on spiral galaxy NGC 3079; they are combined with ground-based Halpha+[N II] Fabry-Perot spectra and VLA images of radio polarization vectors and rotation measures. Ionized gas filaments within 9 kpc diameter project ~3 kpc above the disk, with the brightest forming the 1 kpc diameter superbubble. They are often resolved into strands ~0."3 (25 pc) wide which emerge from the nuclear CO ring as five distinct gas streams with velocity gradients and dispersions of hundreds of km/s. One stream flows for 250 pc and aligns with the VLBI-scale radio jet, the other four are not connected to the jet, instead curving to the vertical 0.6 kpc above the galaxy disk, then dispersing in a spray of droplets each with ionized mass ~1000 sqrt(f) Msun (volume filling factor f > 0.003 from our data). Shredded clumps of disk gas form a similar structure in hydro models of a galaxy-scale wind. The pattern of magnetic fields and the gas kinematics also suggest a wind of mechanical luminosity 10^43 erg/s that has stagnated in the galaxy disk at radius ~800 pc, flared to larger radii with increasing height as the balancing ISM pressure reduces above the disk, and entrained dense clouds into a vortex. Total KE and momentum of the filaments are (0.4-5)x10^55 sqrt(f) ergs and (1.6-6)x10^47 sqrt(f) dyne s. A star-forming complex elsewhere in the galaxy shows a striking spray of linear filaments that extend for hundreds of parsecs.Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 31 pages, 15 figures (some color). High-fidelity figs at http://www.physics.unc.edu/~cecil/science/n3079.htm

European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation Topical Review on prediction, diagnosis and management of fibrostenosing Crohn's disease

This ECCO topical review of the European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation [ECCO] focused on prediction, diagnosis, and management of fibrostenosing Crohn's disease [CD]. The objective was to achieve evidence-supported, expert consensus that provides guidance for clinical practice