mstate: An R Package for the Analysis of Competing Risks and Multi-State Models

Multi-state models are a very useful tool to answer a wide range of questions in survival analysis that cannot, or only in a more complicated way, be answered by classical models. They are suitable for both biomedical and other applications in which time-to-event variables are analyzed. However, they are still not frequently applied. So far, an important reason for this has been the lack of available software. To overcome this problem, we have developed the mstate package in R for the analysis of multi-state models. The package covers all steps of the analysis of multi-state models, from model building and data preparation to estimation and graphical representation of the results. It can be applied to non- and semi-parametric (Cox) models. The package is also suitable for competing risks models, as they are a special category of multi-state models. This article offers guidelines for the actual use of the software by means of an elaborate multi-state analysis of data describing post-transplant events of patients with blood cancer. The data have been provided by the EBMT (the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation). Special attention will be paid to the modeling of different covariate effects (the same for all transitions or transition-specific) and different baseline hazard assumptions (different for all transitions or equal for some).

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for patients with TP53 mutant or deleted chronic lymphocytic leukemia : Results of a prospective observational study

Non peer reviewe

MYD88 mutations identify a molecular subgroup of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with an unfavorable prognosis

The 2016 World Health Organization classification defines diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) subtypes based on Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection and oncogenic rearrangements of MYC/BCL2/BCL6 as drivers of lymphomagenesis. A subset of DLBCL, however, is characterized by activating mutations in MYD88/CD79B. We investigated whether MYD88/CD79B mutations could improve the classification and prognostication of DLBCL. In 250 primary DLBCL, MYD88/CD79B mutations were identified by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction or next-generationsequencing, MYC/BCL2/BCL6 rearrangements were analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization, and EBV was studied by EBV-encoded RNA in situ hybridization. Associations of molecular features with clinicopathologic characteristics, outcome, and prognosis according to the International Prognostic Index (IPI) were investigated. MYD88 and CD79B mutations were identified in 29.6% and 12.3%, MYC, BCL2, and BCL6 rearrangements in 10.6%, 13.6%, and 20.3%, and EBV in 11.7% of DLBCL, respectively. Prominent mutual exclusivity between EBV positivity, rearrangements, and MYD88/CD79B mutations established the value of molecular markers for the recognition of biologically distinct DLBCL subtypes. MYD88-mutated DLBCL had a significantly inferior 5-year overall survival than wild-type MYD88 DLBCL (log-rank; P=0.019). DLBCL without any of the studied aberrations had superior overall survival compared to cases carrying .1 aberrancy (log-rank; P=0.010). MYD88 mutations retained their adverse prognostic impact upon adjustment for other genetic and clinical variables by multivariable analysis and improved the prognostic performance of the IPI. This study demonstrates the clinical utility of defining MYD88-mutated DLBCL as a distinct molecular subtype with adverse prognosis. Our data call for sequence analysis of MYD88 in routine diagnostics of DLBCL to optimize classification and prognostication, and to guide the development of improved treatment strategies

Outcome after relapse of myelodysplastic syndrome and secondary acute myeloid leukemia following allogeneic stem cell transplantation : a retrospective registry analysis on 698 patients by the Chronic Malignancies Working Party of the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation

No standard exists for the treatment of myelodysplastic syndrome relapsing after allogeneic stem cell transplantation. We performed a retrospective registry analysis of outcomes and risk factors in 698 patients, treated with different strategies. The median overall survival from relapse was 4.7 months (95% confidence interval: 4.1-5.3) and the 2-year survival rate was 17.7% (95% confidence interval: 14.8-21.2%). Shorter remission after transplantation (PPeer reviewe

Family Mismatched Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation for Myelofibrosis : Report from the Chronic Malignancies Working Party of European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation

This analysis included 56 myelofibrosis (MF) patients transplanted from family mismatched donor between 2009 and 2015 enrolled in the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. The median age was 57 years (range, 38 to 72); 75% had primary MF and 25% had secondary MF. JAK2 V617F was mutated in 61%. Donors were HLA mismatched at 2 or more loci. Stem cells were sourced from bone marrow in 66% and peripheral blood in 34%. The median CD34(+) cell dose was 4.8 x 10(6)/kg (range, 1.7 to 22.9; n = 43). Conditioning was predominantly myeloablative in 70% and reduced intensity in the remainder. Regimens were heterogeneous with thiotepa, busulfan, fludarabine, and post-transplant cyclophosphamide used in 59%. The incidence of neutrophil engraftment by 28 days was 82% (range, 70% to 93%), at a median of 21 days (range, 19 to 23). At 2 years the cumulative incidence of primary graft failure was 9% (95% CI 1% to 16%) and secondary graft failure was 13% (95% CI 4% to 22%). The cumulative incidence of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) grades II to IV and Ill to IV was 28% (95% CI 16% to 40%) and 9% (95% CI 2% to 17%) at 100 days. The cumulative incidence of chronic GVHD at 1 year was 45% (95% CI 32% to 58%), but the cumulative incidence of death without chronic GVHD by 1 year was 20% (95% CI 10% to 31%). With a median follow-up of 32 months, the 1- and 2-year overall survival was 61% (95% CI 48% to 74%) and 56% (95% CI 41% to 70%), respectively. The 1- and 2- year progression-free survival was 58% (95% CI 45% to 71%) and 43% (95% CI 28% to 58%), respectively, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of relapse of 19% 95% CI 7% to 31%). The 2-year nonrelapse mortality was 38% (95% CI 24% to 51%). This retrospective study of MF allo-SCT using family mismatched donors demonstrated feasibility of the approach, timely neutrophil engraftment in over 80% of cases, and acceptable overall and progression-free survival rates with relapse rates not dissimilar to the unrelated donor setting. However, strategies to minimize the risk of graft failure and the relatively high nonrelapse mortality need to be used, ideally in a multicenter prospective fashion. (C) 2018 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.Peer reviewe

Impact of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, cytogenetics and monosomal karyotype on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia evolving from myelodysplastic syndromes : a retrospective multicenter study of the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the revised 5-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia who were reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. A total of 903 patients had sufficient cytogenetic information available at stem cell transplantation to be classified according to the 5-group classification. Poor and very poor risk according to this classification was an independent predictor of shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.40 and 2.14), overall survival (hazard ratio 1.38 and 2.14), and significantly higher cumulative incidence of relapse (hazard ratio 1.64 and 2.76), compared to patients with very good, good or intermediate risk. When comparing the predictive performance of a series of Cox models both for relapse-free survival and for overall survival, a model with simplified 5-group cytogenetics (merging very good, good and intermediate cytogenetics) performed best. Furthermore, monosomal karyotype is an additional negative predictor for outcome within patients of the poor, but not the very poor risk group of the 5-group classification. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification allows patients with myelodysplastic syndromes to be separated into three groups with clearly different outcomes after stem cell transplantation. Poor and very poor risk cytogenetics were strong predictors of poor patient outcome. The new cytogenetic classification added value to prediction of patient outcome compared to prediction models using only traditional risk factors or the 3-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification.Peer reviewe

Validation of the revised IPSS at transplant in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome/transformed acute myelogenous leukemia receiving allogeneic stem cell transplantation

The International Prognostic Scoring System has been revised (IPSS-R) to predict prognosis of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes at diagnosis. To validate the use of the IPSS-R assesse

Discontinuation of anti-PD-1 monotherapy in advanced melanoma:Outcomes of daily clinical practice

There is no consensus on the optimal treatment duration of anti-PD-1 for advanced melanoma. The aim of our study was to gain insight into the outcomes of anti-PD-1 discontinuation, the association of treatment duration with progression and anti-PD-1 re-treatment in relapsing patients. Analyses were performed on advanced melanoma patients in the Netherlands who discontinued first-line anti-PD-1 monotherapy in the absence of progressive disease (n = 324). Survival was estimated after anti-PD-1 discontinuation and with a Cox model the association of treatment duration with progression was assessed. At the time of anti-PD-1 discontinuation, 90 (28%) patients had a complete response (CR), 190 (59%) a partial response (PR) and 44 (14%) stable disease (SD). Median treatment duration for patients with CR, PR and SD was 11.2, 11.5 and 7.2 months, respectively. The 24-month progression-free survival and overall survival probabilities for patients with a CR, PR and SD were, respectively, 64% and 88%, 53% and 82%, 31% and 64%. Survival outcomes of patients with a PR and CR were similar when anti-PD-1 discontinuation was not due to adverse events. Having a PR at anti-PD-1 discontinuation and longer time to first response were associated with progression [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.81 (95% confidence interval, CI = 1.11-2.97) and HR = 1.10 (95% CI = 1.02-1.19; per month increase)]. In 17 of the 27 anti-PD-1 re-treated patients (63%), a response was observed. Advanced melanoma patients can have durable remissions after (elective) anti-PD-1 discontinuation

Survival outcomes of patients with advanced mucosal melanoma diagnosed from 2013 to 2017 in the Netherlands - A nationwide population-based study

Background: Mucosal melanoma (MM) is rare and has a poor prognosis. Since 2011, new effective treatments are available for advanced melanoma. It is unclear whether patients with mucosal melanoma equally benefit from these new treatments compared with patients with cutaneous melanoma (CM). Methods: Patients with advanced MM and CM diagnosed between 2013 and 2017 were included from a nationwide population-based registry – the Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. Overall survival (OS) was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method (also for a propensity score-matched cohort). A Cox model was used to analyse the association of possible prognostic factors with OS. Results: In total, 120 patients with MM and 2960 patients with CM were included. Median OS was 8.7 months and 14.5 months, respectively. Patients with MM were older (median age 70 versus 65 years) and more often female (60% versus 41%), compared with CM. In total, 77% and 2% of the MM patients were treated with first-line immunotherapy and targeted therapy, respectively, compared with 49% and 33% of the CM patients. In contrast to CM, OS for MM did not improve for patients diagnosed in 2015–2017, compared with 2013–2014. ECOG performance score ≥1 (HR = 1.99 [1.26–3.15; p = 0.003]) and elevated LDH level (HR = 1.63 [0.96–2.76]; p = 0.069) in MM were associated with worse survival. Conclusions: Within the era of immune and targeted therapies, prognosis for patients with advanced MM has not improved as much as for CM. Collaboration is necessary to enlarge sample size for research to improve immunotherapeutic strategies and identify targetable mutations