Arctic rock coast responses under a changing climate

It has been widely reported that Arctic sea ice has decreased in both extent and thickness, coupled with steadily rising mean annual temperatures. These trends have been particularly severe along the rock coast of southern Svalbard. Concerns have been raised over the potential for higher energy storms and longer ice-free open water seasons to increase the exposure of Arctic coasts, and consequently the concentration of infrastructure critical to Arctic community survival, to enhanced rates of erosion. Here we present and apply innovative remote sensing, monitoring and process analyses to assess the impact of recent coastal climatic changes. High resolution analyses demonstrate that the small scale (<0.001 m3) changes that are rarely considered quantitatively exhibit geomorphic responses distinct from those of larger, more readily detected cliff failures. We monitor temperature depth profiles in both the shore platform and the cliff face to show rock sensitivity over time to both global and local influences. The results demonstrate the efficacy of thermal processes on Arctic rock cliffs relative to platforms, and may hold implications for understanding strandflat development rates. New three-dimensional thermography (thermal mapping) and process zone characterisation has been used to spatially assess the sensitivity of Arctic rock coast responses to contemporary processes on deglaciating coasts. Through the spatial and temporal analyses of key geomorphic behaviour zones and comparison over a range of sites, the complex and changing interplay between subaerial weathering and cryogenic and intertidal processes has been highlighted. These data challenge long standing assumptions over the future of Arctic rock coasts and identify new, focused lines of enquiry on the decline in cryogenic processes and understanding the sensitivity of Arctic rock coasts to climatic changes

Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

Published VersionRecent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest&ndash;tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical asso ciations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behav iours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being small est in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1&ndash;2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation dis tribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103&ndash;104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land&ndash;atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration

Gridmapping the northern plains of Mars: Geomorphological, Radar and Water-Equivalent Hydrogen results from Arcadia Plantia

A project of mapping ice-related landforms was undertaken to understand the role of sub-surface ice in the northern plains. This work is the first continuous regional mapping from CTX (“ConTeXt Camera”, 6 m/pixel; Malin et al., 2007) imagery in Arcadia Planitia along a strip 300 km across stretching from 30°N to 80°N centred on the 170° West line of longitude. The distribution and morphotypes of these landforms were used to understand the permafrost cryolithology. The mantled and textured signatures occur almost ubiquitously between 35° N and 78° N and have a positive spatial correlation with inferred ice stability based on thermal modelling, neutron spectroscopy and radar data. The degradational features into the LDM (Latitude Dependent Mantle) include pits, scallops and 100 m polygons and provide supporting evidence for sub-surface ice and volatile loss between 35-70° N in Arcadia with the mantle between 70-78° N appearing much more intact. Pitted terrain appears to be much more pervasive in Arcadia than in Acidalia and Utopia suggesting that the Arcadia study area had more wide-spread near-surface sub-surface ice, and thus was more susceptible to pitting, or that the ice was less well-buried by sediments. Correlations with ice stability models suggest that lack of pits north of 65-70° N could indicate a relatively young age (~1Ma), however this could also be explained through regional variations in degradation rates. The deposition of the LDM is consistent with an airfall hypothesis however there appears to be substantial evidence for fluvial processes in southern Arcadia with older, underlying processes being equally dominant with the LDM and degradation thereof in shaping the landscape

Modelling post‐earthquake cascading hazards: Changing patterns of landslide runout following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

Coseismic landslides represent the first stage of a broader cascading sequence of geohazards associated with high-magnitude continental earthquakes, with the subsequent remobilisation of coseismic landslide debris posing a long-term post-seismic legacy in mountain regions. Here, we quantify the controls on the hazard posed by landslide remobilisation and debris runout, and compare the overlap between areas at risk of runout and the pattern of post-seismic landslides and debris flows that actually occurred. Focusing on the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we show that the extent of the area that could be affected by debris runout remained elevated above coseismic levels 4.5 years after the event. While 150 km2 (0.6% of the study area) was directly impacted by landslides in the earthquake, an additional 614 km2 (2.5%) was left at risk from debris runout, increasing to 777 km2 (3.2%) after the 2019 monsoon. We evaluate how this area evolved by comparing modelled predictions of runout from coseismic landslides to multi-temporal post-seismic landslide inventories, and find that 14% (85 km2) of the total modelled potential runout area experienced landslide activity within 4.5 years after the earthquake. This value increases to 32% when modelled runout probability is thresholded, equivalent to 10 km2 of realised runout from a remaining modelled area of 32 km2. Although the proportion of the modelled runout area from coseismic landslides that remains a hazard has decreased through time, the overall runout susceptibility for the study area remains high. This indicates that runout potential is changing both spatially and temporally as a result of changes to the landslide distribution after the earthquake. These findings are particularly important for understanding evolving patterns of cascading hazards following large earthquakes, which is crucial for guiding decision-making associated with post-seismic recovery and reconstruction

In situ wind wave and water level measurements in Hornsund - deployment GAS5

This dataset includes water levels and bulk wave parameters for deployment GAS5 at Gashamna, Hornsund, Svalbard

In situ wind wave and water level measurements in Hornsund - deployment ISBW2

This dataset includes water levels and bulk wave parameters for deployment ISBW2 at Isbjornhamna (W), Hornsund, Svalbard

In situ wind wave and water level measurements in Hornsund - deployment HBK2

This dataset includes water levels and bulk wave parameters for deployment HBK2 at Hansbukta, Hornsund, Svalbard

In situ wind wave and water level measurements in Hornsund - deployment GAS3

This dataset includes water levels and bulk wave parameters for deployment GAS3 at Gashamna, Hornsund, Svalbard

In situ wind wave and water level measurements in Hornsund - deployment GAS4

This dataset includes water levels and bulk wave parameters for deployment GAS4 at Gashamna, Hornsund, Svalbard